> AI now makes every product operate as if it has a vibrant open-source community with hundreds of contributions per day and a small core team with limited capacity.
Hmm this is an interesting analogy. It suggests that we could design autonomous AI coding scaffold tools based on the patterns found in open source development communities.
Certainly! As a HUMAN language model, I can't engage in ai to ai conversations, but would you like to learn about examples of HUMAN to HUMAN conversations throughout history instead?
Open-weight AI is actually analogous to closed source, free shareware you can decompile and modify yourself and run on your computer or a cloud server of your choice.
It's a clear distinction to proprietary AI, which is analogous to SaaS software controlled by a company that runs it on its own cloud, and owns your data.
Every example like this makes it obvious that you can now use ML-like optimization approaches on well-specified, very-well-tested software problems with a clear optimization goal. Keep if it improves the objective while maintaining correctness, discard if it doesn't. AI-descent strikes again.
Maybe I should learn more about ML to have a better instinct on optimization methods in general, so I can actually build AI optimizers like these.
I made a roblox game years ago with no more than like 2 concurrent players at a time. The game's ideas were immediately copied by a much bigger game (this turned me off the Roblox platform for good).
I still got enough robux to DevEx just from premium roblox subscribers playing the game. (If I cash it out i would get a few hundred dollars. Which is nothing for me today but absolutely a lot of money for an aspiring teenage developer.)
I think game ideas can get copied everywhere but it happens much faster on Roblox and there is almost no recourse for the smaller developer who got copied.
The platform doesn't care when someone makes a copy, there's no way for players to push back and actually hurt the developer making the copy (unlike Steam where trying to do it will get you bombarded with negative reviews and buried by the algorithm), and superficial visual quality and marketing attracts players more than actual gameplay quality.
If we are talking about game mechanics, they get copied all the time, of course. If it's about superficially reproducing a game including the assets, I don't think any big players on PC or consoles steal ideas from indie/smaller developers. That is despised and likely not allowed by the platform, if not challenged in court.
(I have no idea about what happens on mobile platforms)
I come from the Minecraft modding/server community. There is interesting fact that I like to tell people about the sheer size of Roblox compared to other communities like Minecraft.
The largest Minecraft server in the world is Hypixel at around ~30K concurrent players. Most other servers are very far behind.
There is one Roblox game that looks and plays like Minecraft and copied one single gamemode (Bedwars) common in servers like Hypixel. It had 60K+ concurrent players last time I checked late last year.
There are almost definitely more people playing BedWars on Roblox than there are playing it on Minecraft at this very moment.
(I don't have a minecraft account) but Trust me when I say this but within developing countries especially. You can find 3-4 people out of 1 who plays on hypixel but can't because they can't pay for the game usually when we are really young which is also roblox's most major userbase.
I can imagine Hypixel being atleast 2x and a rough estimate of 5x more the size if they support Cracked Minecraft accounts for example.
Btw, this is also the reason why aternos is so popular within some communities because a free server which can have cracked option. Sign me up starts happening in bulk.
Me and my friends had an aternos server. It was truly something out of this world meeting them tomorrow after having 10 people together in a minecraft server.
I was the person though who spent way too much time and had less stacked gear lol in the end because some of my friends were like bandits haha, who stole my stuff from caves and in general, I have spent much of my time in minecraft during the starting (nothing -> diamond) then afterwards (diamond -> end/netherite)
Anyways my point is that we all could've definitely been on hypixel and something similar if Hypixel supported crack client. For example 11 of us or more played the game one time or another (not sure) within our single class of 50 people and only one of the guys had an minecraft account.
One of my friends literally got into some cash-app type stuff with a shady tetris to earn money app which showed ads to earn 25$ just so that he can buy minecraft to play on hypixel and the game fundamentally required something impossible and my friend felt so depressed at the time and he's one of the smartest people I know. A) people are easy to scam, B) he and many of us had so much desperation to play on hypixel in general.
You can get an alt (and I used to) for free or very cheap which would work everywhere unless on hypixel which had stricter rules and the difference between account prices could be 10x back or more that at that point its just better to make a minecraft account just for hypixel or similar. (I remember seeing accounts for 3$ or something that would work everywhere except hypixel)
I asked him if I should write a blog post to name and fame the company but he denied and he was truly sad that day :(
All of this combined can show how Roblox truly hits a jackpot with it being a free game. Most people might not pay but because of the perceived fame of the game and the number of people playing it. The people who pay would be more likely to pay and I see some people/kids who really look for ways to make robux online.
So with all of this, its easy to see how these (usually teen developers like us) can make something which can land 100k$ as unachievable that sounds.
one of my friends racked in quite a lot of money making 3d sprites in blender for these roblox people and in exchange used to have them buy blender extensions. Those extensions were truly a lot of money if he had to go buy them.
I agree with this. For the last ~4 years I have been working to turn my Minecraft server into a free browser game on a custom engine.
Though in Roblox's case, there's two additional factors helping the success of games on its platform besides being free to play
- Roblox has become the de-facto portal from which lots of people play games by default, especially on mobile devices like tablets where discovery for other games (that aren't P2W and can spam ads) is very poor
- Multiplayer games are exceptionally easy to develop on Roblox. (With a standalone game you have to grind on an engine for years like what I'm doing. I'm developing thousands of LOC per weekend with a multi-agent setup and there is just so much necessary complexity that launching an alpha build will take months.)
I would also add it's easier to download and set up than Minecraft. I still have nightmares about setting up various Microsoft and Xbox accounts and trying to help my kid play with her friends. IMO that Roblox doesn't have this friction is huge
In this day and age Prism launcher [0] will handle Minecraft and any modpacks you want to use. The only caveat is pointing it at your download folder so it can open the tabs for any mods that need a manual download and it will import them, but that's hardly difficult.
Minecraft (Mojang/Microsoft) have also made it clear that with them moving from OpenGL to Vulcan they're maintaining the ability for Minecraft to run on Mac as well as Windows/Linux, which is fantastic.
My bet is that the real different lies in mobile devices - iPads/tablets and phones are something that kids have more access to than laptops or desktops, and lots of people don't bother with parental controls.
Sure, but I still need a Microsoft account of some sort to play Minecraft? And parental controls still exists inside Microsoft or Xbox (is that the same account??). I spent a couple days just trying to make it possible for my daughter and her friends to be connected on Minecraft. And then you need to figure out what a launcher is, that Prism even exists. And you get a completely different experience on iPad where Prism doesn't exist. It's stil a hassle compared to Downloading free Roblox and start playing and having the same experience across devices.
My 9 yo has alt accounts I didn't setup, that's how easy Roblox is. I have MC/Microsoft account info for like 10 people, mostly family/friends kids, in my password manager because their parents were fine with them playing, but didn't want to deal with account management. Every sleep over starts with me logging everyone in on the various available devices, with their parents on standby to help with the multi-factor shitstorm that ensues.
Roblox is getting pretty bad though with age verification, and they will NOT help recover a lost/hacked account no matter how much money was spent on it. 5 year account, likely thousands of dollars in robux spent on it, kid clicked a bad link and it's gone. Roblox just responds they can't help, even though the original email address was verified, and used 2 factor auth through its history. They used to be helpful, they don't care anymore.
In a way I found sketchy/scammy aspects of Roblox helpful to educate my kid about that sort of thing. Early on a classmate scammed her out of some item on AdoptMe, nothing monetary valuable but it shook her and really caused her to think critically about online transactions and security. These days the friend group talks about IP bans and account bans so we did a good session about what IP addresses are, how they work, etc. She also did temper her expectations on how attached to get to the main account since it can get hacked or locked etc.
This reminds me a of recent conversation I had with a friend about the success of Roblox. The big thing my friend said that Roblox has over Fortnight or any other gaming platform is ease of installation.
He told me how their young cousin came to visit and wanted to play Roblox. He told his little cousin he didn't have Roblox and that he would have to download and install it. The young child eagerly replied "It's super easy! let me show you!" So he let his cousin on to his PC. In less than 3 minutes he installed a small client, signed in, download the game files and was playing.
My friend was surprised and said Epic is struggling with this very problem and knows Roblox is successful precisely because of this ease of deployment. This is the same reason Discord is popular: you hop in, create an account and off you go. For Epic, Unreal Engine games are gigabytes in size and games are dependencies of other games built on top such as expansion packs. e.g. to play a Lego expansion pack game you need to buy and install the base Lego game. Roblox avoids this and the game files are small and fast to download.
Why sell the factory when you can create automated software cloner companies that make millions off of instantly copying promising startups as soon as they come out of stealth?
If you could get a dark factory working when others don't have one, you can make much more money using it than however much you can make selling it
ASML has a near monopoly on the most advanced chip machines. They maintain that by 'just' being the most advanced and having lots of patents.
They haven't branched off into making chips themselves. They keep their focus on selling the factories.
I think they haven't, because ASML itself doesn't have production lines. Every machine is one off. It even gets delivered with a team of engineers to keep it running.
The same probably holds true for software factories: the best ones are assembled by the smartest people (wielding AI in ways most of us don't). They are not in the business to produce software at scale, they are in the business to ensure others can do that using increasingly advanced software factories.
This relies on the premise that such a factory cannot produce a more advanced factory without significant human intervention (e.g. high ingenuity and/or lots of elbow grease). If this doesn't hold true, then we are in for some interesting times x100.
Was listening to a radio programme recently with 3 entrepreneurs talking about being entrepreneurs.
In relation to sales, there were two gems. For direct to consumer type companies - influencers are where it's at right now especially during bootstrap phase - and they were talking about trying to keep marketing budget under 20% of sales.
Another, who is mostly in the VC business, finds the best way to gain traction for his startups is to create controversy - ie anything to be talked about.
In both cases you are trying to be talked about - either by directly paying for people to do that, or by providing entertainment value so people talk about you.
You could argue that both of those activities are already been automated - and the nice thing about sales is there is that fairly direct feedback loop you can actively learn from.
Yeah I really would like to know how many bots are on reddit (and on particular subreddits/threads) and also how many are here!
The interesting thing though is that the bots are just cheaper versions of real human influencers. So nothing has changed aside from scale (and speed) - the underlying mechanisms of paying for word of mouth is the same as it's been for a long time.
You can do a lot of work with agents to remove a lot of manual work around the sales process. Sales is a lot of grinding on leads, contacts, follow ups, etc. And a lot of that is preparation work (background research, figuring out who to talk to, who the customer is, etc.), making sure follow ups are scheduled appropriately, etc.
You still should talk to people yourself and be very careful with communicating AI slop, cold outreach and other things that piss off more people than they get into your funnel. But a lot of stuff around this can be automated or at least supported by LLMs.
Most of the success with sales is actually having something that people want to buy. That sounds easy. But it's actually the hardest part of selling software. Getting there is a bit of a journey.
I've built a lot of stuff that did not sell well. These are hard earned lessons. I see a lot of startups fall into this trap. You can waste years on product development and many people do. Until it starts selling, it won't matter. Sales is not a person you hire to do it for you: you have to be able to sell it yourself. If you can't, nobody else will be able to either. Founder sales is crucial. Step back from that once it runs smoothly, not before.
Use AI to your advantage here. We use it for almost everything. SEO, wording stuff on our website, competitor analysis, staying on top of our funnel, analyzing and sharpening our pitches, preparing responses to customer questions and demands, criticizing and roasting our own pitches and ideas, etc. Confirmation bias is going to your biggest blindspot. And we also use LLMs to work on the actual product. This stuff is a lot of work. If you can afford a ten person team to work on this, great. But many startups have to prove themselves before the funding for that happens. And when it does, hiring lots of people isn't necessarily a good allocation of resources given you can automate a lot of it now. I'd recommend to hire fewer but better people.
Your points are all valid, but it doesn’t really change the situation that was being discussed: an AI company trying to enter completely new markets just because they can write software for it is hardly some sort of automatic win. They’re much more likely to fail than succeed.
I mentioned sales and marketing but there’s a whole lot more as well. Basically, it involves creating an entire subsidiary. Perhaps the time will come when that can be mostly done by a team of AI agents, but right now that’s a big hurdle in practice.
It does raise the question of where in the future will companies compete.
What's the balance going to be between,
'connecting customers to product' and
'making differentiated product'?
In theory, if customers have perfect information ( ignoring a very large part of sales is emotional ), then the former part will disappear. However the rise of the internet, and perhaps AI agents shopping on your behalf, hasn't really made much of a dent there [1] - marketing, in all it's forms, is still huge business - and you could argue still expanding ( cf google ).
[1] Perhaps because of the huge importance of the emotional component. Perhaps also because in many areas of manufacturing you've reached a product plateau already - is there much space to make a better cup and plate?
There's also a world where "all companies have access to the software factory so sales and entrepreneurship in software disappears entirely."
But in that scenario it's hard to see where the unwinding stops. What are these other companies doing and which parts of it actually need humans if the "agents" are that good? Marketing? No. Talking to customers? No. Support? No. Financial planning and admin? No. Manufacturing? Some, for now. Shipping physical goods? For now. What else...
>It does raise the question of where in the future will companies compete.
Exactly where current companies compete, rent seeking, IP control, and legal machinations.
Hence you'll see a few giant lumbering dinosaurs control most of the market, and a few more nimble companies make successful releases until they either get crushed by, get snapped up by the larger companies, or become a large company themselves.
That’s not true. Even if we assume LLMs can generate the code needed to support the next Facebook, one still has to: buy/rent tons of hardware (virtual or baremetal), put tons of money in marketing, break the network effect, pay for 3rd party services for monitoring, alerting and what not. That’s money, and LLMs don’t help with that
You can get Strix Halo in mini desktop form factor but they won't be AM5 socketed because roughly 1/2 to 3/4 of the memory bandwidth would need to be missing, starving the massive iGPU you just paid for.
Hmm this is an interesting analogy. It suggests that we could design autonomous AI coding scaffold tools based on the patterns found in open source development communities.
reply