Is there any field with as big of gap between theory and experiment than QC? You read papers like this and think they will be harvesting all Satoshi's coins in a couple years and then you remember that nobody has even factored 21 yet on a real quantum computer.
It's interesting, solar panels were in this category in the 1980s and self-driving cars were in the 2010s, and both have had the gap between theory and practice significantly narrowed since.
With fusion it's gonna be harder, I think. First you need to pump energy into it to get the fusion itself. This involves energising supermagnets, vacuum pumps and heating and controlling the plasma. We are not even here yet.
And once you get to that point, you need to harness the output energy of a million degrees plasma through something that yields a pretty high efficiency (so that pumping energy into the plasma is not only worthwhile, but makes financial sense) and requires a reasonably low maintenance.
I see fusion more practical as a rocket technology (which is just basically impossible) than as an actual energy facility asset.
What big gap are you referring to that you believe exists between the theory of any quantum computing platform (which is device physics) and the experiment?
You seem to be conflating the theory with pitches to investors?
The number of qubits is increasing exponentially, and the error rates are getting lower.
People have factored numbers larger than 21 (not that Shor's algorithm is commonly used benchmarks by experimentalists at this point but people with little knowledge about quantum computers and device physics love it, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-032-12983-3_... did 221 and and in fact, you can do it yourself using Qiskit on IBM's publicly available devices [or on a local simulator for few qubits] following their tutorial https://qiskit.qotlabs.org/docs/tutorials/shors-algorithm if memory serves the largest instance for public is ibm_kingston with 156 qubits https://quantum.cloud.ibm.com/computers?limit=25&system=ibm_...) but it will take more time until we have millions of good qubits to harvest your Satoshis.
For the programmer folks here, as a physicists working on the device side of things for many years now, the best analogy I have is: we didn't get from a few hand-made vacuum tubes to billions of transistors with 18A manufacturing process overnight, and we won't get from hundreds to millions of better qubits overnight either. A realistic expectation would be thousands within this decade, but keep in mind that the growth has so far been exponential in various types of qubits, much like Moore's law, so reaching to millions of qubits shouldn't take us 10 millenia.
Oh wait: thousands of programmers started working on this in the early 90s so that there would be so few failures people thought it was a scam.
The entire financial and government infrastructure was based on ecdsa until the shift to pqc. The consequences of not preparing are literal threats to global economy. That can’t be understated. The cost to switch to (hybrid) pqc is essentially zero when compared to the costs for not doing it.
Key is 2600 bytes for mldsa 87. Your fav icon is 10x bigger than that. Verify time and encapsulation is a few hundred microseconds for one verify and encaps. Your scary proportions are minuscule in practice. Even cortex m class can handle it. Not sure you have an argument when you put it up against a typical browser session. Plus 50% of all web traffic already uses pqc ciphersuites sooooo….
I was thinking about transaction processing, eg visa/blockchain. And here storing and sending almost full packet for signature instead of 32 bytes matters. For sessions this shouldn't matter
Oh good point. Thanks. I don’t think about cryptocurrency at all. But yes the sigs are now 4.6k. Thats a huge block. Yeah that sure throws a wrench into blockchain. But the alternative is that blockchains based on ecdsa go away. Seems like a win to me. But I despise cryptocurrency.
And it's worse than that. In order to "factor" 15=3x5, they designed the circuit knowing that the factors were three and five. In other words, they just validated it. And that's something you can do with a regular CPU.
Well how do you know if you overdosed? What else happens besides anxiety and paranoia? Some of the reaction may be genetic, but I think many people have a negative reaction to taking mass quantities of cannabis. I don't know if you want to take a poll here but it's pretty common...
The fact that someone had a negative reaction to an overdose has nothing to do with how (properly dosed) THC/CBD affects unhealthy (and healthy) people.
Many substances can be overdosed on, even though they may not be harmful - or may even be beneficial - in appropriate amounts.
Remember when Singapore buyers were an abnormally high percentage of nvidia's revenue? You have to wonder if these companies are this brazen because they know the DoJ will have political pressure not to nuke the bubble which is more important than being China hawks.
Yep, same how the sales of German industrial CNC, machines, tools and lathes exploded in Russia's neighbouring former soviet republics after 2022 for some reason.
Man, Kazakhstan must be an industrial powerhouse by now with all that German machinery. Can't wait for Kazakh EVs and semiconductors to hit the market.
Is that Singapore's position in the world today? Tiptoeing between sinosphere and anglospehre economic quarreling? I see so many job postings there in like Woodlands and other parts of Singapore these days I'm just curious what the big impetus has been in recent years.
"The change may cause policymakers to misjudge the economy’s health, investors to lose confidence in the reliability of the data, and the public to disengage from participating in official measures altogether."
Many neoliberal Western countries with good data have completely fumbled their economies post-GFC and post-Covid, just look at Canada's disastrous GDP per capita growth.
Canada’s population has increased at an astonishing rate, I wonder if that affects the per capita numbers. If you have the same industry in 2011 and 2026 but population went from 35 million to 42 million, per capita the numbers look terrible
According to OECD [1], population growth outran capital, housing, and infrastructure. So it's kind of like they didn't have enough "slots" to plug all of these additional people into.
They don't claim this is to only or even primary cause of Canada's weak per-capita GDP growth though. As you would expect, there are many, many causes.
For a short time I was a part of a small site that banned politics.
It was fine, people talked about work, personal stuff, travel, until one person posted about their disappointment that their state was limiting various services or rights to gay people. For them this meant their rights were in question and they were understandably upset.
Immediately some folks cried politics and that they shouldn’t post about that sort of thing.
To the user posting it it was about their life…
I don’t think “no politics” rules really make much sense. For someone it’s more than politics, and IMO because a topic is touched by politicians or government shouldn’t make it disallowed.
I had an idea a while back where one could have a balance where the site by default doesn't show politics and also doesn't show it to logged out users. One needs to sign up, then switch on a setting to see politics. Users can be required to mark posts as politics, similar to nsfw, nsfl and users can report posts which aren't marked correctly.
That's not the worst idea. Honestly, I'm at the point where I'd pay money for an active social media site that varied humans as real people, required them to use their name, and so on.
User could pick their own post visibility, who can participate in comments, pick your own feed, etc.
Social media on the surface is neat, it's just all the other big company, advertising, and frankly human failures that make it suck :(
Right, and politics is a constant moving target. Being gay is not inherently political, its been made political by the right. That's just what it is.
As time goes on, more and more stuff is political, because politicians stick their grubby little hands in everything. What you drink is political, what you eat is political, who you fuck is political. It's exhausting for anyone even slightly outside the status-quo.
I've nver seen discussion of politics on forums do anything but turn into hate-filled, dogmatic posts which aren't productive at all. Every political thread here turns into the same takes and HN imagines itself as intellectually better than others. It's not interesting or productive. If talking about politics fixed things, why are politics worse today than they've ever been? There's no costs and no solutions to ranting about politics online.
The vast majority of people do not want to get on a forum to escape their life to see every more or worse content about their daily lives.
You're right, there needs to be some outlet but when people propose this it's because they are sick and tired of politics and the injection of them into everthing is not helping those politics, it just makes it worse.
Tons of people aren't political creatures and want nothing to do with politicians. This notion that more politics will fix thing isn't born out by Reddit, X, the US Congress, Brexit, etc. It's too easy to divide and manipulate people.
> Wouldn't that be almost impossible?. Politics affects our lives every day.
No it wouldn't be. And if your definition of "politics" includes "literally every time a thing happens" then your definition is so broad as to be useless.
When people say that they want politics banned, they are talking about the extremely controversial arguments that are almost completely unrelated to whatever the community is about. IE, if you run a group about Cheese making, and someone comes in and starts arguing about if an ice shooting on the other side of the country was justified or not, that is... off topic. And everyone with a brain can understand that.
It really isn't that hard to figure out which topics are related to cheese making and which other topics have almost nothing to do with it, even if someone could make a bad faith argument that it is related (EX:, your response would probably go something like "Well what if someone knows a cheese maker who is here illegally, therefore thats why ice enforcement on the other side of the country is relevant!". You could say that but we all would know that you are being bad faith or have some sort of issue with determining what words mean to regular people)
Partial credit in this example could go to political issues that are very obviously and directly related to cheese making. A new tax on cheese that goes into effect in your local town, and very directly is related to the group topic. Stuff like that might be OK.
And your response to this example would go something like "Oh, so are you saying that politics should be allowed!?!? how do you tell the difference between a cheese tax and an ice shooting on the other side of the country? Hypocrit!"
And the answer to that is that we can use our brain. We all know that a cheese tax is more related to the local cheese making group than national politics. And we don't have to argue with clearly bad faith arguments that pretend otherwise.
To summarize, when people say that they want to ban politics, what they actually mean is that they want to ban completely off topic controversial issues that others are trying to shoe horn into a group that isn't related to that issue.
And people are saying that it is OK to compartmentalize things. Every group in the world doesn't have to talk about your pet issue. The cheese making group can just be mostly about cheese making and they don't have to argue every day about national immigration policies.
The main problem that comes in with this is the status quo. That's where we get the meme "there are two genders: male, and political".
When you're part of the status-quo then nothing is a political statement, but when you aren't then everything is a political statement. Disabled black woman opens a local cheese shop? Is that political? I think that might be, depending on who you ask on your cheese forum.
So there's an inherent double standard. Like, if you have a subreddit for a city, and you have a post about the Pride parade, that's a political message. But most other parades are not, even if the subject matter is the same.
There's a forum (HardForum) where they've taken a kind of opposite approach: people pay to access private forums where they can talk about politics and random things while the public-facing boards remain tech focused.
Basically incentivizing those who feel strongly about things to just pay up to talk about them in an exclusive area, which also keeps the site ad-free. Been apparently working for 25 years.
Unfortunately unless you also ban it in comments, people with an axe to grind will find a way to bring it up in the most inappropriate places. Casual swipes at Elon and Trump and Biden or AOC (depending on your corner of the internet) will happen on stories about the nutritional value of school lunches or fundraising for some animal shelter. It even happens on HN constantly.
A pointless publicity stunt because of state secrets privilege that will lead to more extreme actions from the Trump admin against Anthropic like the DoJ pulling the trigger on a selectively prosecuted company ending copyright/hacking case for stealing all their training material.
The prediction market trend will "work itself out".
It will become common knowledge that these platforms are exploited by insiders so people "trust" apparent flagged insider bets, so people will try to piggyback insiders, then it will be revealed that a sophisticated party with infinitely deep pockets burns massive amounts of cash to manipulate odds and these piggybackers will be burned badly, so in the end classical gambling and sports betting will resume as preferred ways for gamblers to lose money because of their disgust with the manipulation.
People give plenty of money to mobsters who are running illegal gambling operations (This used to be common in the US). Unsurprisingly, those mobsters cheat people, but they keep doing it.
Prediction markets do seem basically corrupting. So yeah, maybe the winning move for society is to just not regulate them at all so they just become obvious “cheaters only” leagues.
Anthropic wants regulatory capture to advantage itself as it hypes its products capabilities and then acts surprised when the Pentagon takes their grand claims about their products seriously as it threatens government intervention.
This is why people should support open models.
When the AI bubble collapses these EA cultists will be seen as some of the biggest charlatans of all time.
Who specifically is claiming this? Satoshi literally mentioned the need to upgrade if QC is viable on bitcointalk in 2010.
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