But what is surprise really? Something not following expectation. The distribution may statistically leverage surprise as a concept via how it has seen surprise as a concept e.g. "interesting!"
So it can be both true that it has nothing to do with the emotion of surprise, but appear as the emulation of that emotion since the training data matches the concept of surprise (mismatch between expectation and event).
It’s the emotional and physiological response to a prediction being wrong. At its most primal, it’s the fear and surge of adrenaline when a predator or threat steps out from where you thought there was no threat. That’s not something most people will literally experience these days but even comedic surprise stems from that shock of subversion of expectation.
LLMs do not feel. They can express feeling, just as you can, but it doesn’t stem from a true source of feeling or sensation.
Expressing fake feelings is trivial for humans to do, and apparently for an LLM as well. I’m sure many autistic people or even anyone who’s been given a gift they didn’t like can relate to expressing feelings that they don’t actually feel, because expressing a feeling externally is not at all the same as actually feeling it. Instead it’s how we show our internal state to others, when we want to or can’t help it.
It is a mistake to equate artificial intelligence with sentience and humanity for moral reasons, if nothing else.
One thing that is critical is that the country hasn't turned home ownership into an ever growing financial asset that is meant to carry the majority of one's wealth into perpetuity
Well, it did at one point, it’s just that the crash that resulted was so nasty it disabused anybody of that notion.
At the peak of the bubble era, just the land underneath the Imperial Palace had an estimated real estate value larger than the entire state of California.
10% is the bog-standard minimum, so you're more hoping for 12-15%, and the houses in Japan are knocked down and rebuilt between essentially every occupant, so they're pieces of garbage meant to last a decade or so, and about as environmentally unfriendly as one can get.
So yeah, it's extremely rough when there's nothing valuable to invest your money in.
I live in Japan by the way. It’s no where as dire as you make it sound. The houses are mostly knocked down because of the cultural attitude towards them and people’s lack of DIY knowledge when it comes to renovations. Many young people in the country side a slowly changing attitudes but the bones of many of their houses are no less garbage than anywhere else in the world. If your house costs $6k USD, then it leaves you a lot of left over money for renovations.
I’ll agree it sucks you can’t have a really cheap house an 15% return on your money (which seems like an exaggeration). But with some ingenuity I think people could make the lower property and house prices work for them a lot more than they do.
My internal Brandolini's Law alarm is sounding loud and clear from this post.
If you think real investors should make 12-15%, you are essentially bankrupting the next generation. (Even 10% annualised would do it.) That is enormous intergenerational wealth transfer, ensuring the next generation cannot own a home before they are 50 years old or they rent forever.
Outside of central Tokyo (the most central ku's surrounded by Yamanote train loop line), there is almost no capital appreciation for homes (and apartments) because NIMBYism does not exist (quite literally through the national building code). As a result, they build enough for the demand, and home prices are relatively stable, roughly rising at the rate of inflation. France is pretty similar outside of central Paris. Before post-COVID inflation got out of control, Germany was also similar.
The center of Tokyo and Osaka are a bit special because they are the largest job centers in the whole country, and there is very (insanely?) high demand and not enough land to maintain low capital appreciation for homes. That said, there is still constant tear-down/rebuild projects in Tokyo to build denser housing. It is hard to walk 10 mins in central Tokyo and not see a tear-down/rebuild project. Fortunately, they have incredibly strict noise controls at construction sites, so you rarely hear it, but you see it.
> the houses in Japan are knocked down and rebuilt between essentially every occupant
This is absolutely untrue. This is a near-perfect Internet Brain/Terminally Online type of comment. Houses are normally only knocked down in Japan when they are 50+ years old. (The "30 year rule" from the 1980s just won't die on the non-Japanese Internet.) The stuff that I see knocked down looks like it is from the 1950s -- pure wood, rotted to the core, and paper-thin windows. It makes no sense to restore these homes when there is no legal restriction for tear-down/rebuild. There are lots and lots of second hand single family homes that change hands between owners. All of the people that I know who own single family homes bought them second hand. There is a whole segment of the real estate construction market that does home restoration. It is pretty common to buy a second-hand single family home, then do X currency amount of restoration. Sometimes, these companies buy the used homes themselves, do restoration, then sell at a price for profit. Apartments are similar in wider Tokyo area.
> they're pieces of garbage meant to last a decade or so
Again: Internet Brain/Terminally Online type of comment.
> So yeah, it's extremely rough when there's nothing valuable to invest your money in.
Have you seen the Nikkei 225 stock index in the last 10 years? (How does the total return compare to your country of residence?) Also, Japan does not enforce capital controls, so regular people are welcome to invest their money in foreign stock markets, such as the S&P 500 stock index. They can do so using numerous domestically-listed mutual funds and ETFs.
Agree, most homes have been built to strict codes since the 80s, due to earthquakes and typhoons, which means by default, they're not "rubbish". There are many places with a crap finish, poorly insulated etc, but as I said in another comment, they're not by default trash.
Source? I've always thought of Tokyo as a rare example of abundant and affordable housing among major world cities. Their rent to income ratio is like 0.3 while most major global cities are 0.35-0.4
I don’t know that it’s a helpful distinction. A lot of people do it all - drive, walk, bike, and take public transit. Only in this kind of discussion do I see people declaring it a team you have to choose.
how do you account for the compilation of your insight that was formed through the consumption of many prior examples? do you feel compelled to thoroughly cite them, or have they crossed a threshold marked through your ability to now generate new similar things without directly referencing them that it's "all original you" now?
If you're writing an academic/research paper, you still have to find something to cite.
"I know this stuff, just trust me" isn't a valid citation. The point is to give anyone who reads the paper a way to a) verify that each fact you put in the paper has solid academic sourcing, and b) find more information about it if they wish.
If you know a lot of stuff about the topic already, that's great—but unless you've already written and published papers on the subject, you can't just cite yourself.
Yeah there's some grey area there I guess. But it took me quite a while as a student to understand that I needed to cite sources even if I was "using my own words" and not quoting passages verbatim.
Certainly there are styles and broad arcs that many creations follow that are not directly attributable to a specific source.
When a strongly capitalized minority cohort can sustain positions that are untenable for normal market participants, they can act as a kingmaker by shaping outcomes at the margin.
So it can be both true that it has nothing to do with the emotion of surprise, but appear as the emulation of that emotion since the training data matches the concept of surprise (mismatch between expectation and event).
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