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"There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that any country in the NATO umbrella being hit would lead to the United States retaliating decisively."

How?

http://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2016/07/how-to-invad...

Also, do you know what the UdSSR "ax theory" was? Or the "ed-escalation" strategy of the 90ies?

Look at the map. The Baltic states can't be defended. At least not with the military that is there in the moment. Could they be taken back? Unlikely because Russia would immediately retaliate tactically (nuclear).



> The Baltic states can't be defended

That's why deterrence is the only thing working. If the US even suggests it might not consider an attack on Latvia the same as an attack on Washington, then there is no deterrent.

As you say, the Baltics can't be defended (at least not longer than 1-2 days) and there is no good strategy with Sweden and Finland outside NATO (Sweden accepts US use of bases - but would they in a crisis if Russia makes clear it will make Sweden a target?).




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