Yep.
From the beginning, the assumption that the coach or OC "randomly" calling plays is a particularly important goal is pretty flawed.
In high quality NFL offenses the QB will walk up to the line with 2-3 plays of varying types available and make a last-minute decision depending on how the defense sets up.
And surprise comes less from which play is called and more from showing run and then passing, or vice versa.
There is so much more that this doesn't account for, like matchups and how defenses/offenses handle runs or passes.
And unless any of this analysis is actionable, it doesn't really matter.
Does this mean an opposing defense can accurately predict when a run or pass will occur?
Will they actually be able to act on that knowledge?
Unclear.
There is so much more that this doesn't account for, like matchups and how defenses/offenses handle runs or passes. And unless any of this analysis is actionable, it doesn't really matter. Does this mean an opposing defense can accurately predict when a run or pass will occur? Will they actually be able to act on that knowledge? Unclear.