As funny as this would be to watch, I think this underestimates the lock-in effect Microsoft has on business and everyday users. Even with Ubuntu, linux isn't going to capture the mainstream in a long time, so the only real threat to Windows on the desktop is OS X... and since you have to buy hardware to get it, Microsoft still has a pretty strong moat here.
Now if Apple were to give away their OS for non-mac hardware, that would be interesting.
As for Office, no online solution can compete until net access becomes ubiquitous. You can't use Google Apps on a plane at the moment, and a lot of users are comfortable with Word's UI.
I think Microsoft's business model is eventually doomed, but not in any time frame short enough to make the Yahoo deal matter in that regard.
It seems to me like Microsoft should leverage what it is very good at (marketing) and try to compete with IBM in the consulting business rather than try to compete online. There will always be a huge market of MBAs wasting money on overpriced tech advice!
"I think Microsoft's business model is eventually doomed, but not in any time frame short enough to make the Yahoo deal matter in that regard"
I'm not so sure about "doomed" -- "threatened," I might allow, for a sufficiently liberal definition of "eventually."
Vista isn't doomed because the desktop is dead -- it's doomed because it sucks. Web software may represent a legitimate threat to Microsoft someday, but it seems the more immediate concern ought to be that they can barely develop software anymore. It took 6 years to get from Windows 95/NT to Windows XP -- a huge step forward in so many ways. Then 6 years later, Vista brought us what, exactly? Worse performance on the same hardware? A pretty new interface that practically requires a 3D graphics card to open the start menu? DRM? A completely reorganized interface offering negligible improvements over the old one? A privilege escalation implementation that causes as many problems as it solves? An eye-popping $319.95 price tag for the "full" version? Sign me up...
Let them sell it then. I think a non-trivial number of Apple customers buy for the look and feel of the hardware too. A Macbook is just prettier than anything Dell offers, and that matters to some people. Regardless, I just meant the only thing killing windows in the near term is OS X.
But I guess Apple is smarter than me, realizing it can basically sell it's operating system (with bundled hardware) for $2500 rather than $100 by itself.
I'm not so convinced that Microsoft's business model is doomed. Even with ubiquitous net access, there are still issues with keeping sensitive information on evil corp servers. Not just legal (medical info, educational records, etc.), but also practical issues. After all, if you are a software company, you are competition for other software companies. (This is what MS overlooked as Google was taking root.) Putting your business strategy in their hands is not something I'm comfortable with.
I think MS's stranglehold will be loosened, however. I am fine working with Open Office (I really like MS Publisher, however), Firefox, and other "alternative" apps. I think others will be too, especially if the recession turns out to be very painful.
Imagine how much $ a school system would save if they went to Open Office?
Large corporations will never switch to Open Office, because they have too much invested. The home edition of MS Office is $129, which isn't too bad for most home and small business users, and it means they have exact file compatibility with other businesses.
I like Open Office, but I would never have bothered to switch except for the fact that I prefer Linux to Windows.
I owould say that cash-strapped startups and nonprofits are the most likely groups to switch to Open Office in particular, though I expect just as many OO.o switchers are actually people who switch to Linux and use OO.o by default. There would probably also be more switchers if the native Aqua version for Mac were rock solid.
Don't underestimate the difficulty in migrating users from an application that has been used daily for a long time. The average tech-saavy user could make the switch easily, but from my experience, that's a small percentage of a workforce in any reasonably large business. There are enough little differences between the applications to drive a non-technical user nuts (especially since it probably took them a solid year to learn MS Office well enough to do their job).
apple is never going to allow their OS to run on anything but apple hardware. not so long as steve jobs is alive, anyway. yes, a lot of people want that, because it would be good for them, but it wouldn't be good for apple, and it wouldn't be good for apple's non-technical users, either.
It honestly wouldn't be particularly good for the technical users either. A large part of why the Apple experience is so polished is that they can test the OS against every combination of hardware the software is specified to run on.
Yes. Essentially there's a technical reason why Apple would restrict OS X to only Apple hardware. Microsoft spends (or at least spent, they seemed to have given that up with Vista) lots of money & time ensuring Windows works with weird hardware combinations. Apple saves some money side-stepping the whole issue; if they released OS X for all hardware, they'd get people complaining things along the lines of "OS X sucks! It doesn't work with my e-Machines Craptastic Edition Model". Well the reason it doesn't work is because your e-Machines Craptastic edition sucks, but the customer is going to blame OS X, see?
Now if Apple were to give away their OS for non-mac hardware, that would be interesting.
As for Office, no online solution can compete until net access becomes ubiquitous. You can't use Google Apps on a plane at the moment, and a lot of users are comfortable with Word's UI.
I think Microsoft's business model is eventually doomed, but not in any time frame short enough to make the Yahoo deal matter in that regard.
It seems to me like Microsoft should leverage what it is very good at (marketing) and try to compete with IBM in the consulting business rather than try to compete online. There will always be a huge market of MBAs wasting money on overpriced tech advice!