I imagine they're going to have a pow-wow with Google/FB execs and/or legal where they will all agree that the rules really are the rules and Google/FB will promise not to break them again, and Apple will restore the certs. Probably in less than a week. Apple has made their point, and there are good reasons to maintain a cordial relationship.
That sounds right- they may also ask for other PR concessions, like very publicly admitting they violated the terms of the agreement and re-committing to being good citizens of the iOS developer community.
One sort of "rubbing their nose in it" term could be something like a large donation to some sort of privacy advocacy group or similar.
