I, uh, don't suppose you noticed who that report was by?

Certain parties, namely oil companies and OPEC members, have an extremely strong vested interested in "business as usual". BP being one of those parties. A measure of common sense, however, should assure you that despite the corporate assurances there is reason indeed to be concerned. There is no profit in the corporations and oil states blowing the whistle now; quite the opposite.

Do longbets.com et al do actual bets, including counter-bets? Because I would put quite a lot of money against $5/gallon gas, inflation adjusted, in 2030.

Do you have better sources?

If you look at KSA, UAE production in 2009. They are down 10%+ on 2008.

To me, it seems very likely that the diminishing Energy Return on Energy Invested will not support [cheap] oil prices at a level that will allow Western Countries such as the United States to remain out of recession.

Much of the current 'proved reserves' include tar sands and heavy and inaccessible oils that are expensive and polluting to process, that are not economic to produce at a bbl cost of less than say $80.

As China and India grow, they will continue to account for a larger and larger share of oil imports, pushing up prices, and reducing the quantity of oil available to the United States to import.

This chart shows unleaded gasoline delivered to gas retailers in the US. We are roughly 20% off the highs, with very little spare oil, judging by the rising prices. The corresponding Chinese chart on the other hand... http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&...

If anyone wants to look further, www.theoildrum.com presents varied commentary on some of these issues.