This should have been named the Law of Unintended Consequences.
In the most abstract, opening up mobile and messaging platforms is a Good Thing. Unfortunately it is going to cause a mass of real world problems and will have significant negative consequences.
Requiring alternate App Stores will mean Facebook, Epic (Tencent), TikTok, and Scams R Us will all set up their own app stores. Their apps will slowly move to those stores where there are zero restrictions on the collection of personal data. Even if the OS requires user permission to access personal data people are just going to smash that accept button like they've been conditioned to do with GDPR dialogs.
Forcing alternate browser engines will just see Google use its enormous influence on the web to coerce everyone into using Chrome. The current "web standards" are ridiculously complicated. Google's "standards" are also privacy nightmares as they're perfect for fingerprinting. Web standards have gotten so complex Microsoft threw in the towel and just uses Blink. This legislation is just going to accelerate a Blink (and thus) Google monoculture on the web. If Microsoft can't maintain a viable browser engine against the complexity of web standards, driven primarily by Google, there's no hope for a plucky upstart to come along with a new browser engine. I guess learn to enjoy WebIrisScanner and WebAttention APIs when they're rolled out to help Google's ad business.
Messaging interoperability is going to be a clusterfuck. Messaging protocols and back ends are complex. The law doesn't seem to specify what messaging interoperability means at an implementation level. It's going to impose a huge cost on all messaging platforms to carry (and spool for delivery) traffic from third parties. While obviously the EU wants to impose cost on US companies, EU mobile carriers will end up subject to these laws and need to spend money supporting Facebook and iMessage traffic.
If history teaches us anything about sweeping technological regulation it's that we're not pessimistic enough about unintended consequences.
Out of the ones you've listed, I think Epic has the highest likelihood to do it, not just because they were the only one to take substantiative legal action to try to force it, but because theirs is a platform that might actually offer compelling content that would give users a good reason to switch. (Though then again, plenty of iOS games will remain with the Apple Arcade, and I'm not sure what killer apps Epic has beyond Fortnite.)
If Facebook or TikTok moves their apps to a new app store without offering an additional app library of new content, users are going to be irate and it could end up backfiring on them. I think TikTok would stand a greater chance of doing that given that ByteDance is a Chinese company subject to that nation's regulations and policies, but I don't see attempts at a Meta, Google/Alphabet, or Amazon app store succeeding for long. App stores are hard, and even harder when your competitor owns the platform- I'm sure Apple can still exercise leverage over iOS beyond the App Store.
Facebook took a huge revenue hit when Apple started enforcing permissions on app spying. I see them definitely creating a "Metaverse" App Store filled with their spyware. They have the leverage to push users to their store between Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Don't forget Facebook used to be a huge games platform for Flash games.
Running an App Store is hard but companies like Facebook and ByteDance already run the sort of infrastructure needed. Since Apple can no longer enforce exclusivity with their store, Facebook et al have the incentive to create stores accessed from both Android and iOS. Before this law they'd only be able to target the lower revenue Android users while having to live with Apple's restrictions. Now they can make one Facebook (or ByteDance) store able to target higher revenue iOS users where they distribute their first party apps in addition to third party ones. You can be sure they would have no restrictions on data collection. The wording of the DMA also seems like it would be difficult for Apple to stymie their data collection at the OS level.
> I see them definitely creating a "Metaverse" App Store filled with their spyware.
They could do that from a technical/engineering level, but I question their product/business capability to woo users to such a store. Meta is an old tech dinosaur at this point, and their Metaverse initiatives have yet to bear any fruit. Users at this point are all juggling nearly a dozen of social media, email, e-commerce, streaming entertainment, and so on accounts. Dealing with another Meta App Store account to manage is going to be inherently a source of friction unless Meta presents a lot of compelling new content to win them over, which I completely question their product ability to execute on.
> They have the leverage to push users to their store between Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
Right- I understand that taking their existing offerings and moving it to their store is a way to artificially boost demand. But it will come with blowback. Users will be annoyed at dealing with another account, most will see it as a transparent attempt to steal their data, and a non-zero amount will not bother to migrate. They'll try to use mobile web or stick to only desktop for some apps. Facebook DAU has dropped in a prior quarter, their continued level of usage is not guaranteed; perhaps Meta will soon find more users than they expected can live without their product.
And if something as crucial as WhatsApp is moved off of its currently largest platform- the App Store- into a scammy Meta App Store exclusively, well I doubt the regulators will sit still for that either. Not only does it also seem like a monopolistic move, that also subjects such a store to scrutiny as well. Regulators aren't happy at big tech for user data tracking. It's another issue they're pursuing, and the idea that they'll let a Meta or Google third party app store off scot-free for doing so is pretty unrealistic.
> Running an App Store is hard but companies like Facebook and ByteDance already run the sort of infrastructure needed.
I mean from a business perspective, not purely technical. I remember how Microsoft desperately tried to get third party developers for the Windows Phone store, and the steady demise of Facebook Apps as a platform. (Not to mention how their one prior mobile play, Facebook Home for Android, was a complete bust.) It's hard to chase after both third party devs and consumers, even if they offer lower margins than 30%. Most app devs will almost certainly keep their apps listed on the App Store and on the Play Store, because that's where the overwhelming majority users will be.
> The wording of the DMA also seems like it would be difficult for Apple to stymie their data collection at the OS level.
We'll see how it goes. I believe regulators can chew gum and walk at the same time. App Store monopolies aren't the only issue that's on their minds right now. Even Google itself is changing Play Store tracking policies:
In the most abstract, opening up mobile and messaging platforms is a Good Thing. Unfortunately it is going to cause a mass of real world problems and will have significant negative consequences.
Requiring alternate App Stores will mean Facebook, Epic (Tencent), TikTok, and Scams R Us will all set up their own app stores. Their apps will slowly move to those stores where there are zero restrictions on the collection of personal data. Even if the OS requires user permission to access personal data people are just going to smash that accept button like they've been conditioned to do with GDPR dialogs.
Forcing alternate browser engines will just see Google use its enormous influence on the web to coerce everyone into using Chrome. The current "web standards" are ridiculously complicated. Google's "standards" are also privacy nightmares as they're perfect for fingerprinting. Web standards have gotten so complex Microsoft threw in the towel and just uses Blink. This legislation is just going to accelerate a Blink (and thus) Google monoculture on the web. If Microsoft can't maintain a viable browser engine against the complexity of web standards, driven primarily by Google, there's no hope for a plucky upstart to come along with a new browser engine. I guess learn to enjoy WebIrisScanner and WebAttention APIs when they're rolled out to help Google's ad business.
Messaging interoperability is going to be a clusterfuck. Messaging protocols and back ends are complex. The law doesn't seem to specify what messaging interoperability means at an implementation level. It's going to impose a huge cost on all messaging platforms to carry (and spool for delivery) traffic from third parties. While obviously the EU wants to impose cost on US companies, EU mobile carriers will end up subject to these laws and need to spend money supporting Facebook and iMessage traffic.
If history teaches us anything about sweeping technological regulation it's that we're not pessimistic enough about unintended consequences.