> Wouldn't be. The "$ quintillion" figure is just clickbait.
Source? At this point we can't know for sure, which this mission is supposed to determine. But we know its size, and estimating its composition puts it into trillion or quadrillion dollar territory, which is still a crazy amount.
And we're talking about a _single_ asteroid. The possible value found in the asteroid belt is—literally—astronomical.
> Ore on Earth is worth a lot more, and is right here, ready to be dug up.
Not quite. Ore on Earth is limited, and increasingly difficult to mine, requiring costly processing, deep sea expeditions, and producing toxic side effects for the environment. It's also politically problematic, as countries control access and exportation.
Asteroid mining would be much more expensive, but the ROI could potentially be much more lucrative. Once the space operation is setup, costs would eventually come down, and it opens up many further space exploration opportunities.
SpaceX is in a unique position to be one of the first companies to launch such missions, that I'm also surprised that Musk is not jumping at the opportunity.
It would still be a political challenge, and it creates new conflict arenas, but this is inescapable human nature.
Asteroid mining is inevitable and we'll get there eventually. Beltalowda!
It is odd to mention expense for terrestrial mining in this context.
Asteroid material will become important once orbital construction has seriously taken off, after Musk is long dead. In the meantime, the only valuable exports will be the engines that got supplies out there. With their bells cut off.
> It is odd to mention expense for terrestrial mining in this context.
Only to point out that it's not "worth a lot more", nor that it's "ready to be dug up".
> Asteroid material will become important once orbital construction has seriously taken off, after Musk is long dead.
Possibly, but Mars exploration is an even longer-term bet, which has little to no financial benefits.
Considering Musk has experience in boring, space, and starting outlandish ventures, asteroid mining seems like a good fit. It could be a lucrative shorter-term project, that could fund his Mars and beyond exploration goals. It might even be achievable within his lifetime, by focusing on near-Earth objects.
Granted, this is all speculation from a layperson, but I'm curious if this has ever been considered.
Surely the pioneers in this business would be well aware of that fact, and would presumably control the supply. Although the goal is ultimately to lower prices and make these elements ubiquitous, the transition wouldn't happen overnight. It's likely that logistical limits in transporting the material back to Earth would be enough to avoid crashing the markets.
