The only way it will change is if more housing is built. A lot more housing. Demand is higher now than it has ever been before, and supply is not keeping up.
Some of this is simply caused by supply not keeping up for decades, but on top of that we have a lot of people who moved out of the cities/back in with their parents during the pandemic who now want somewhere to live.
Home prices are actually lower now than they were earlier in the year, but rent has inflated by quite a bit. That proves that the demand-side is causing the increases. If housing was simply an asset bubble, we would see purchase prices skyrocketing too. Increases in rent are outpacing increases in home values because of a lack of supply is causing potential tenants to compete with each other.
So, how would home values drop significantly? New supply takes years to build, so that won't do it anytime soon. High mortgage rates have only resulted in small decreases in prices. It's also becoming more expensive to build with new environmental requirements like solar panels on all new housing in California, for example.
The only way I can see significant price drops happening in the short term is something similar to what happened in 2008: a wave of foreclosures forcing sellers to sell low, at the same time as mass unemployment and massive stock market dips destroy the purchasing power of buyers. That would certainly lower prices, but the damage would certainly not be limited to the housing market.
Fundamentals mean house prices should be higher than before, but that doesn't prove they should be this high. The population didn't double in five years. Such high-flying markets attract lots of speculation, especially in the last few years. The higher prices go, the more it attracts people to jump in and the thing accelerates, though the price relative to the fundamentals is actually getting worse and worse. How can it not overshoot? Look at what happens with worthless cryptocurrencies...
Some of this is simply caused by supply not keeping up for decades, but on top of that we have a lot of people who moved out of the cities/back in with their parents during the pandemic who now want somewhere to live.
Home prices are actually lower now than they were earlier in the year, but rent has inflated by quite a bit. That proves that the demand-side is causing the increases. If housing was simply an asset bubble, we would see purchase prices skyrocketing too. Increases in rent are outpacing increases in home values because of a lack of supply is causing potential tenants to compete with each other.
So, how would home values drop significantly? New supply takes years to build, so that won't do it anytime soon. High mortgage rates have only resulted in small decreases in prices. It's also becoming more expensive to build with new environmental requirements like solar panels on all new housing in California, for example.
The only way I can see significant price drops happening in the short term is something similar to what happened in 2008: a wave of foreclosures forcing sellers to sell low, at the same time as mass unemployment and massive stock market dips destroy the purchasing power of buyers. That would certainly lower prices, but the damage would certainly not be limited to the housing market.