I don't have a crystal ball either. But there is no one in tech at this point who hasn't read The Innovator's Dilemma. And Apple themselves have as good a recent history of disrupting themselves as well as others and shifting tacks, repeatedly, as any other megacorp. They are clearly awake to it. Doesn't mean they can execute, but I don't agree there is any sign of them "trying not to cannibalize" vs just not thinking the timing is there yet.
Granted the question of timing is of course always one of the huge challenges too, someone can have 100% the right idea, product segment focus, etc, but be too early (or too late) and fail. But again, Apple has to have as much insight into all of this as anyone, they've built deep, deep manufacturer relationships. As with some of their previous products, the right time to get going is probably "a bit early, but not too much". Ie, good enough to satisfy a few hundred thousand people, not just thousands/tens of thousands, but early enough that everyone else thinks it's not ready yet. Then there is enough qualities/volume for real feedback and getting the iteration ball rolling, but not so much that it means making major changes isn't doable yet. If I think back to Mac OS X (I still vividly remember both the Public Beta and 10.0), the iPod, the iPhone, the iPad, or even a lot of Mac models (Macbook Air v1 definitely had a host of "this needs more hardware" aspects), that seems to be around the point they always aim for.
Again no special insight on if they've gotten that moment right here but it certainly doesn't feel like it couldn't be given where things are at. And my confusion is people who apparently can't see any value at all, regardless of improvements. It's one thing to say "I think they're 3 years too early for MVP", it's another to say "what's the point of wearable displays ever".
Granted the question of timing is of course always one of the huge challenges too, someone can have 100% the right idea, product segment focus, etc, but be too early (or too late) and fail. But again, Apple has to have as much insight into all of this as anyone, they've built deep, deep manufacturer relationships. As with some of their previous products, the right time to get going is probably "a bit early, but not too much". Ie, good enough to satisfy a few hundred thousand people, not just thousands/tens of thousands, but early enough that everyone else thinks it's not ready yet. Then there is enough qualities/volume for real feedback and getting the iteration ball rolling, but not so much that it means making major changes isn't doable yet. If I think back to Mac OS X (I still vividly remember both the Public Beta and 10.0), the iPod, the iPhone, the iPad, or even a lot of Mac models (Macbook Air v1 definitely had a host of "this needs more hardware" aspects), that seems to be around the point they always aim for.
Again no special insight on if they've gotten that moment right here but it certainly doesn't feel like it couldn't be given where things are at. And my confusion is people who apparently can't see any value at all, regardless of improvements. It's one thing to say "I think they're 3 years too early for MVP", it's another to say "what's the point of wearable displays ever".