One of the most misunderstood concepts about algorithmic trading is that speed is not a critical factor for the majority of systems. My systems like https://grizzlybulls.com/models/vix-ta-macro-mp-extreme have been crushing the market with live trading for 3+ years and yet trade on a frequency of only once ever 18 trading days on average (some a little more often, some even less), and are set up to only generate signals around hourly breakpoints.
The last 18 months have been weaker than the first given the enormous structural shift in the market in this high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates environment, but we've still managed to deliver a return of +14.11% since the site launched in Jan 2022 compared to -7.83% for the SPX. We've managed to do it without any use of leverage and also with lower drawdowns as well of -16.48% vs. -27.57% for the SPX over that time frame.
Your chart including what looks like backtesting data starting 2009 looks a bit disingenuous. It’s a totally random starting point. It’s obviously not your actual performance, if you say you started 3 years ago. It’s made to look like your model actually outperformed the market significantly.
Kudos to you if you really sit on an untapped gold mine, but imho, there are some red flags that makes me not buy in.
Thanks for the feedback. I try to call out in several places in the app that 2009 - 2020 is backtest only, but perhaps I need to make it more clear. No one should ever expect a model to trade as well in live trading as it backtests, and that's been true of nearly all our models (save the anomaly of TA-MR-Basic). However, there's more than enough room in the returns and drawdowns to underperform the backtest while still producing significant alpha, which is what we've seen with 4/7 models and especially with the top two.
However, the April 2009 start date is not actually random--it's the first start date for which intraday futures data is available for more than just front month contract. Several derivative indicators of the VIX futures curve are the most foundational to all the VIX-based models, and they simply cannot be processed without it. The VIX futures were only created in 2004, and I've scoured the internet for intraday data for more than just front month (can't create the curve if you only have front month data), and the earliest it can be found is April 2009.
The models vary greatly in the number of external data sources they pull from to compute signals. The simplest ones like https://grizzlybulls.com/models/ta-mr-basic and https://grizzlybulls.com/models/ta-trend-basic only use a technical analysis calculations on the raw price and volume data of SPX on a few different timeframes. The most complex pulls data from dozens of external sources as it incorporates macroeconomics, monetary policy, various market sentiment sources, yield curve, valuation data, fundamentals, earnings estimates, etc.
It's also worth noting that every additional data source adds some risk of that data source being down or publishing inaccurate data during real-time signal calculation which can cause inaccurate signals, so in order to justify that risk, the external source must meaningfully contribute to alpha or better risk-adjusted returns.
None of them involve a human element in real-time. However, they are occasionally updated as new data comes in, but any updates only apply going forward so as to preserve the live trading history accurately (live trading start date varies by model from mid 2020 to jan 2022 with 2009 - 2020 being purely backtest for all models).
The last 18 months have been weaker than the first given the enormous structural shift in the market in this high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates environment, but we've still managed to deliver a return of +14.11% since the site launched in Jan 2022 compared to -7.83% for the SPX. We've managed to do it without any use of leverage and also with lower drawdowns as well of -16.48% vs. -27.57% for the SPX over that time frame.