> what chance does Microsoft have getting enough of TSMCs capacity?
Looking at their balance sheet: plenty.
TSMC is all about pay to play. Apple is first in line because they’re willing to pay to be first in line. I have no doubt Microsoft can justify spending the money they save not buying nvidia into getting some priority access from TSMC.
Also keep in mind Apple is now on 3nm so there’s likely spare 5nm.
My guess is that Microsoft booked capacity years ago. Either by strategic decision, with the belief they could yield the capacity to someone else, or through their other hardware divisions (see: Xbox).
It’s very likely they knew something like this was coming, as they’ve been doing FPGAs for more than a decade now.
In exchange for paying to build out TSMC's 3mm capacity, Apple gets exclusive rights to use it for the next N years. Who knows what other exclusivity deals or other shenanigans are in place that would prevent Microsoft from acquiring capacity?
Looking at their balance sheet: plenty.
TSMC is all about pay to play. Apple is first in line because they’re willing to pay to be first in line. I have no doubt Microsoft can justify spending the money they save not buying nvidia into getting some priority access from TSMC.
Also keep in mind Apple is now on 3nm so there’s likely spare 5nm.