>battery airplanes will never be more than a small niche.
I wish I could take that bet. I'd put whatever amount of money down on that.
They say never say never but you are asserting fundamental physics prevents it from happening?
Within 5 years I expect to see my local GA manufacturer start pumping out battery electric planes.
Within 10 years it will be reasonably possible to get yourself on an electric plane. Regional electric planes will start replacing older planes. The like 20-seater type size. I expect the niche stuff like seaplanes probably start getting certified around this spot.
Within 20 years the regional flight will have mostly converted to electric and some of the early adopters will have finished amortizing those planes.
within 30 years the massive airliners will be replaced with 20MW or so battery electrics. I will even go further and say these won't look like traditional planes.
A typical high-end 18650 li-ion cell from 1996 was 1400mAh.
A typical high-end 18650 from 2023 is about 3200mAh.
In other words, it took 27 years for battery tech to achieve a bit over a doubling in energy capacity.
Even if we wait another 20+ years and batteries double again, it will still be an order of magnitude less dense than gas. In a plane, this is absolutely critical.
I want to be flying electric planes, hell I'd settle for just an electric car that got somewhat good range. But battery tech has taken eons to get to where it is.
We can only hope to get some quantum leap in storage density or we're going to be flying with dinosaurs for a long time.
> you are asserting fundamental physics prevents it from happening?
The energy density of batteries vs fuels is the current limitation. We don't know if this problem can ever be solved. A business cannot gamble on some magical hopes and dreams.
> within 30 years the massive airliners will be replaced with 20MW or so battery electrics
And how much will those 20MW batteries weigh?
With the current lithium battery technology, you would need a 7,167 metric ton battery to store the same amount of energy as 150 tons of jet fuel, which is typical for a long haul passenger jet.
> The energy density of batteries vs fuels is the current limitation
It's not just that. Fuels mean the aeroplane gets lighter with distance, especially on ascent. Batteries need so much more energy just to carry their own weight the whole way.
Also often forgotten thing is that aircrafts have also designed max landing weight. This isn't hard limit, but limit for normal operations. This is why they go in holding pattern to burn fuel for example if cabin pressure is lost. So not immediate emergency, but something where you want to land sooner than planned.
> you are asserting fundamental physics prevents it from happening?
Yes. The chemistry of burning fuel vs batteries is very different. Even though engines are much less efficient, that doesn't make up for how much more dense fuel that you burn is. (you could perhaps burn the battery, but that would be a very different thing, and probably too toxic to consider in the real world)
> I expect to see my local GA manufacturer start pumping out battery electric planes.
Since GA airplanes are currently being made at a rate of about 3000/year you could be right and yet not make any dent in total airplanes.
>Within 10 years it will be reasonably possible to get yourself on an electric plane.
Maybe, but those airplanes will have a very limited range. For most aviation uses range is important - by the time you get to the airport, run all the preflight checklists: you could have driven the same distance as the range of an electric plane, and the electric plane hasn't even got off the ground yet! There are short range niches where this is acceptable, and they will switch to electric planes for sure.
> Regional electric planes will start replacing older planes. The like 20-seater type size.
RANGE RANGE RANGE. Most people who get in a 20 seat plane are going far enough that electric can't make the trip. Batteries are too heavy, and this is the physics of the chemistry that innovation cannot work around no matter how much you want to ignore the laws of physics and chemistry.
I wish I could take that bet. I'd put whatever amount of money down on that.
They say never say never but you are asserting fundamental physics prevents it from happening?
Within 5 years I expect to see my local GA manufacturer start pumping out battery electric planes.
Within 10 years it will be reasonably possible to get yourself on an electric plane. Regional electric planes will start replacing older planes. The like 20-seater type size. I expect the niche stuff like seaplanes probably start getting certified around this spot.
Within 20 years the regional flight will have mostly converted to electric and some of the early adopters will have finished amortizing those planes.
within 30 years the massive airliners will be replaced with 20MW or so battery electrics. I will even go further and say these won't look like traditional planes.