We're not at saturation exactly, sales are growing but growth has slowed and competition is much stronger. It's entirely possible Tesla has peaked and won't recover but that's speculation. I'm still confident EVs will be all or nearly all cars on the road in the near future but it's going to be more like 20-25 years than 10.
I think we’re entering a trough where the artificial incentives start to lose their effect and we really figure out what the market needs and navigate the FUD as we “digest” some of the lousy early cars.
We’re still early in the market and tech breakthroughs make it unpredictable — Tesla’s survival is probably tied to delivering those.