You don't need external conditions to line up with your narrative to start a cult. You just need charisma, a willingness to unflinchingly lie about anything to get what you want, and the mental acuity to make good excuses when your lies inevitably contain contradictions.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42864272 ("Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy (nasa.gov)", 69 comments)