If you believe certain business cycle theories, the way an economic downturn starts is when businesses no longer see the need for additional new capacity. So there's declining CAPEX. Then the 40% of the economy that is CAPEX-related takes a downturn. Even though the 60% that is consumer goods is still for the moment going at full capacity, the CAPEX-related part suffers layoffs. That in turn affects the consumer spending part of the economy.

So if CAPEX is declining, the downturn has already started. (I mean, I guess the article's headline already told us that...)