Agreed. Apparently at least 2000 are already dead, after the IRGC opened fire on protesters in multiple cities.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601103903

FWIW I was told after I posted that iranintl.com isn't necessarily a trustworthy source of news, and that Hrana ( https://www.en-hrana.org ) is a better source. The reported numbers are far lower there.

> a more likely outcome is Iran comes out the other end of this on Monday morning with 5000 dead

Agree. But what would you wager on that today versus a year ago?