Very good write-up indeed, managing to skip the actually superfluous technical details and focusing on the relatively simple claims. All In all, this seems to support two great truisms:

1. Committing crime is very easy. Not getting caught is hard

2. When it comes to gathering evidence, you're only as good as your biggest screw-up

I believe this is just an arrest warrant, rather than the full set of evidence they will be using to using to prosecute. Whilst the links between the elements may seem tenuous, that's exactly how forensic investigations work, and I often use similar techniques as part of investigations