In scenario 1 the selfish pool will lose the block in most cases. Modern pools have a lot of connection to the network, so as not to waste mining on orphaned block. It will get the honest block before the selfish pool block.
This is interesting since I have found very little information about Bitcoin operating on poorly connected networks (i.e. most nodes are not directly reachable from any given node.) Given the current trend toward internet censorship, I wonder if Bitcoin will have to adapt to such networks as the norm.
