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Subscription Hell (techcrunch.com)
745 points by Semirhage on May 6, 2018 | hide | past | favorite | 597 comments


At the time of this writing, all of the comments here are focused on content, but I want to touch on the author's bit about software:

> It’s not just Bloomberg and media — it’s software too. I used to write everything in Ulysses, a syncing Markdown editor for OS X and iOS. I paid $70 to buy the apps, but then the company switched to a $40 a year annual subscription, and as the dozens of angry reviews and comments illustrate, that price is vastly out of proportion from the cost of providing the software (which I might add, is entirely hosted on iCloud infrastructure).

I have noticed this as well, that a not-small number of software programs have turned from "give us one money for this version" to "give us slightly smaller amount of one money per month, but do it in perpetuity if you want to keep going with the data you've entered."

That, to me, is crap and is incredibly frustrating, especially when the subscription model is coupled with a data lockout threat. A task manager, a word processor, even a drawing program...none of these ought to require a subscription to be able to use. Sure, have a subscription service for something that needs upkeep, like a syncing service (but get out of here if all you do is just lump it into the user's iCloud storage) or a data feed. But it's almost insulting to say "we used to charge you $50 once, now we're charging you $29.95 per month forever (if you want to see those notes in two years, and no, we don't have a data takeout API); it's such a deal!"


A model I really like is the one IntelliJ uses. They encourage you to buy a subscription. But when you buy a year at once, you get a "perpetual fallback license" such that you can always keep using the version that is current when you buy: https://sales.jetbrains.com/hc/en-gb/articles/207240845-What...

That means I always will have access to my projects and to the level of functionality I start with. But I keep getting upgrades as long as I keep paying, and they get the steady revenue stream that means they don't have to play weird marketing games.


One thing that always rubbed me wrong about this is that, logically speaking, if you buy a license for a year, the perpetual fallback license should be the version you had at the end of the license, not the one that was on the market at the beginning of it. It doesn't really make sense the way they do it, and it feels like a particularly hamfisted attempt to grab an almost negligible amount of money, so I'm puzzled.


It's not the negligible amount of money that matters. The trick is that at the end of your yearly subscription you have already upgraded to a newer version, so falling back to the perpetual license means downgrading, which is both often a practical problem and (perhaps most importantly) something that I think many have an emotional aversion to.

I'm pretty sure that if the fallback license was to the most recent version you're entitled to during your subscription way more people would take leaps between the end of a subscription and the start of the next one (though Jetbrains offers you a further discount if you don't do so).


> falling back to the perpetual license means downgrading, which is [...] something that I think many have an emotional aversion to.

They're playing on loss aversion and the endowment effect. It feels worse to lose something than to never have it, so people are more willing to pay to keep it than they would be to pay to buy it if they were never given it in the first place.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion


That makes sense, thanks.

In the end, though, when I discovered this was how it worked at the end of my PyCharm subscription, it left me quite a bitter taste in my mouth, and I just stopped purchasing any JetBrains products. These kind of details are akin to trying to trick people via putting stuff into EULAs nobody reads, and for me at least, it gives the distinct feeling that they're trying very hard to screw me over, so I try to not frequent nor support those kinds of businesses, IMHO.


So, is what they are doing worse than what most subscription models do (lose complete access)?

I've been using them for awhile and I felt they were really up front about what they were doing, but I don't know if they've always been as transparent.


Jetbrains actually wanted to cut off access completely at first.

Initially JetBrains didn't even want to offer rollback licenses when they went to subscription only model a few years ago.

There was a big uproar among programmer communities (including here on HN) and after few weeks of deliberation a compromise of sorts was reached.

Despite offering a nice product line, JetBrains did lose a bunch of goodwill including mine. But goodwill does not pay the bills.


It's definitely better than that. But it's still not good. This is all my personal opinion though, I already voted with my wallet by not buying their products any more.


Would it have been better if you "purchase the current version and get temporary upgrades for a year for free." Essentially the same thing, but up front and not implying that you get more than you do.


It'll be the same only if at the end of the year your version is rolledback.


I think this:

> The trick is that at the end of your yearly subscription you have already upgraded to a newer version, so falling back to the perpetual license means downgrading, which is both often a practical problem and (perhaps most importantly) something that I think many have an emotional aversion to.

Qualifies as

> a particularly hamfisted attempt to grab an almost negligible amount of money

OK, so maybe it's not as negligible an amount but it feels petty and I'd not pay money to a company that pulls stunts like that on its customers.


Why should it work that way? You get the updates based on the assumption you are a subscriber, and you get the fallback license based on the assumption that you made a one off purchase at the date of purchase. It's logical the way it works.


It doesn't for the simple reason that they provide updates for the entire year. Surely those updates aren't provided for free. They are provided for purchase you made in advance for a year. If I cancel midway I should be entitled for all the updates till the end of the period. Unless those updates were free and not part of the sale. In which case, the licensee should still get those updates anyways for the period. You look at it either way it still doesn't make any sense. Or, they should return the update fee they charged for the year during the sale on pro-rata basis.

Also, how would you account for it? You can't retrospectively change the nature of purchase from subscription to a one-off sale! That would be audit hell for their accountant.


They sell you version at the time of purchase (fallback license) + access to updates, all accounted at the date of purchase. So when your subscription runs out in theory you could get old version then apply updates but you have no access so no updates for you.


> then apply updates but you have no access so no updates for you.

But that is denial of service that I legitimately paid for. Either they should provide the updates till end of subscription or refund the collected update fees pro-rata (viz. if I cancel after 9 months of purchase, 3 months of excess update fee collected should be refunded).


My sense is you paid for the software as it is on the date of purchase.

With that you get a trial of all updates for a year. If you don’t like the trial you don’t pay and revert to the version you paid for.


Yes it's possible to think of it that way and it makes sense now! However, they should explicitly mention it in their license terms that the updates are provided on trial basis and valid for a year and those updates can be purchased as a version upgrade at the end of the year.


It makes sense to me as removing the choice between, "Do I buy one-off license or a subscription?" If you get the subscription, you get a free one-off license at date of purchase.

Your way also makes sense, but they both seem reasonable to me. And I don't really care much, in that I renew when I'm regularly using their product, as I want to support them. If I just had to open an old project for something, then I don't mind exactly which old version I'm using. (And if I somehow did, I could just put it in 30-day trial mode.)


And at least the way I use it, there's no lock-in. If you stop subscribing, you can easily open your code in another editor.


Slightly off topic, but semi related. My parents had a one year membership at Costco. The level where you get some percentage back. I think it was 2%.

Long to short, the "rebate" was paid ~60 days prior to the end of the 12 months. The remaining 60 days' purchased will only be rebated if they renew.

I presume this is in the small print somewhere. None the less, it's complete crap.


Sounds similar to employers who pay contracted bonuses late, don't pay if you quit before the bonus date, and use bonuses to make up for reduced salaries.


This is really annoying for me, how can I work for a full financial year (and get my shares allocated), receive my performance review but not get a bonus because I quit before October where they pay the bonuses on the last FY?


Hence the wave of resignations the week of bonus payouts. People play the game and wait to get paid, knowing if they prematurely signal their departure, the company will reallocate money to those who choose to stay. I'm not saying it's right but it happens.


And then you only get half a bonus at your new role if you are lucky (my last job I joined 3 days too late to be eligible)


That's strange, as that was not my experience not long ago. I'm thinking there was some miscommunication about the rebate with your family.

I received my rebate after I had let my membership lapse without any issue. You can use the rebate even without an active membership. You can even walk up to the customer service counter and get your rebate amount in cash if you want. I ended up getting pizza and took the rest as cash back.


  You can even walk up to the customer service counter and get your rebate amount in cash if you want.
Here, cashing out is the only way they redeem the vouchers unless it's a really high amount (4 figures+), in which case they cut you a company check (that happened to me once in 6+ years).


Thanks. I'll report back to The 'Rents.


Actually, I might have been an edge case and not representative of their normal rules.

"The Reward is issued approximately 3 months prior to the member’s renewal date in a Renewal Statement and reflects rewards earned up until the issue date. A member must be an active, paid Executive Member when the Reward is earned and issued to receive the Reward. To receive a refund for the Executive upgrade fee the membership must be canceled or downgraded to a Gold Star or Business Membership and any 2% Reward issued or accrued will be forfeited. Any additional savings and services exclusively for Executive Members will be rescinded." https://www.costco.com/executive-rewards.html


It's not "complete crap" given that (a) it's in the paperwork they are given at signup time, and (b) if they are genuinely dissatisfied, they can downgrade back to basic membership and get refunded retroactively to the start of the membership year for the difference in cost of the higher membership.


A year is a year. It's crap, and shows the brand lacks class and respect. Who would renew for a bunch of a-holes?


Wait, so if I've paid the subscription fee for 2 years I get the one at the start of the subscription period?

Some lag from the latest version seems fair, e.g. 6 months before the latest major version is perpetual...


You're in luck. You get the version 12 months before the subscription ended, so the version released before the 1 year mark.


> One thing that always rubbed me wrong about this is that, logically speaking, if you buy a license for a year, the perpetual fallback license should be the version you had at the end of the license, not the one that was on the market at the beginning of it. It doesn't really make sense the way they do it, and it feels like a particularly hamfisted attempt to grab an almost negligible amount of money, so I'm puzzled.

You are absolutely right! That's exactly how it should work but it's surprising that they don't do it that way. I can give you an explanation from accounting perspective: When the sale happens, the accountant would record the sale in their Books of Account as "Unearned/Prepaid Revenue" (as a liability). It makes sense as you have taken money "in advance" for a sale but haven't delivered the updates yet and hence you cannot claim it as Income. Every time you put out an update, you can claim a portion of the "Unearned/Prepaid Revenue" as "Revenue" and push it from liability to "Retained earnings" account as Income. When the year expires (note that the year is for the user not the financial year) the accountant would claim the remaining Unearned/Prepaid Revenue as Revenue/Income.

I wonder how they manage their Books of Accounts if they have defined that the license falls back to the earlier version. What they are doing doesn't make sense from an accounting perspective as well!


I'm not an accountant but presumably you treat it the same as the fairly common purchase+service contract. You have a sale of a license (of the version at time of purchase) and the prepaid service contract that either converts to revenue over time, or, if non-refundable, converts to revenue immediately. The proportion between the two components is fairly arbitrary. There is no constraint on how they implement this from an accounting perspective - they can change to allowing the user to keep the latest version they upgraded to without serious consequence (you can just as easily sell "product version X with one year of updates" which is very common as well, and mark that as revenue right away).


> I'm not an accountant but presumably you treat it the same as the fairly common purchase+service contract

I'm not a certified accountant either but I took the course just to understand workings of my business.

> they can change to allowing the user to keep the latest version they upgraded to without serious consequence

It'll be in their best interests if they did.

> you can just as easily sell "product version X with one year of updates" which is very common as well, and mark that as revenue right away

You definitely can. But you end up overstating your revenue and in turn your profits. The downside to that is you end up paying high taxes (unless you can minimize your profit by showing a ton of expenses as well). If it was instead treated as Unearned Revenue (which is a liability), you would be stating your true income and showing lower profits and thereby paying lower taxes.

Take for instance the case where your customer purchases a multi-year subscription. This causes a higher cash flow (assets go up) but you won't be overstating your income (as liability goes up by classifying it as Unearned Revenue instead of owner's equity). The liability can be reduced by claiming it as revenue over a multi-year period. If it was marked as revenue at the time of sale, the owner's equity (retained earnings) would go up. That would mean showing higher income which results in higher profits and you end up paying high taxes.

Remember that with unearned revenue you can carry it over to multiple financial years and spread your income between them. You lose out on this important tax saving component if you mark as revenue right away. This also has the advantage of portraying a true picture of your business in your books of accounts.


I think the solution is delayed gratification

Don't upgrade until after renewing the subscription for next year.


so you miss out on the new features/bugfixes (which you presumably want, since you are paying already).


They also drop the subscription rate after the first and second years. And even at the outset, the “everything JetBrains” license is cheaper than any two individually licensed products. If you do, say, Java and C# or Python and C++, this makes it a pretty sweet deal.

I wasn’t aware that the perpetual fallback license only covered the latest version at the time of subscription/renewal. That’s less than ideal, but apart from that, I think they’ve pretty well nailed the subscription-based model. It’s actually the _only_ software I’ve used where I feel the subscription model terms were actually an improvement over what I had before.


There are other software providers that charge annual subscription fees that will just stop support and upgrades when you decide to stop the subscription. They don't retard your licensed version down to a previous version. Some of them also allow you to buy a license for the current major version, with minor version updates for free, instead of going all in for a subscription. Heck, I spent 3 years getting free updates from one publisher. Having the choice of being able to buy outright or go on a subscription is, IMO, far better than subscription only models. I'm also pretty surprised that jetbrains took the decision to not only take away paid for updates, but not provide a rebate for people who don't want to continue with the subscription part way through. That just rubs me up the wrong way.


JetBrains made me super salty at how expensive their package is.

I graduated from college and to see their lowest cost package was ~300 USD IIRC was infuriating.

I went full Netbeans for PHP. It does the job, the debugger works, and it doesnt cost me a yearly fee.


It's gone up since then to $500/yr. It takes you two years before you get the $300/yr price again. By then you've already spent nearly $900, with the third year making it $1200.

Android Studio is free.


I think you're looking at the pricing for Businesses and Organizations (the prices displayed by default). Those are floating licenses. Most individual developers would buy an individual license. Individual licenses for the All Products Pack start at $249 for the first year, $199 for the second year, and then $149 for the third year onward.

Individual licenses can be used for commercial purposes just like a business license. AFAICT, the only difference is that a business license can be used by any single developer within an organization at a time, while the individual license can only be used by the named licensee.

There's also a 25% discount for new/recent graduates, which eases the sticker shock a little bit for new graduates.


As I recall, the perpetual fallback thing was added to appease their customer base, who were enraged when IntelliJ announced that they were moving to a subscription model. The term "rent-seeking" was thrown around quite a bit then and seems appropriate now as well.


They had a much more customer-friendly model before - you pay yearly updates and keep the last update. Now you keep the very first version only.


That's not entirely true. You can keep any version that you've paid one year worth of subscription for. That means that if you subscribe for three years then cancel your subscription, you'll always have access to the version that was released one year before you cancelled.


I think parent’s gripe is that if you end your subscription, you can’t keep any updates that come out during your last year, so you likely need to go backwards with your installed version.


It is particularly annoying if they introduced a serious bug, ie datagrip not refreshing queries, in the version you got when you purchased it, the one after the trial that worked. Then, a year later you get downgraded to a version that is useless.


I bought a copy of Office 2016 when it came out, it has now lasted me 2 years and I paid about the same as 2 years worth of Office 365. I intend to keep using it until it is no longer supported at all and I am sure I will have saved quite a bit of money for effectively the same product.


I got Office 2003 and it works for all of the home based stuff that I do now. I paid $70 on a sale. If I had been doing 365 since then at $48/year, I'm looking at $720.


I agree that office 2003 has enough features and is good enough for 99% of the things I use. In fact, starting with 2013, there are anti-features (integration with OneCloud, online docs) that I'd prefer were not included.

Unfortunately, Office 2010 already has issues opening files made with 2013, 2016, etc. Most of my PCs are on 2013 as I was able to grab several HUP licenses at the time. I seriously doubt 2013 will be 100% compatible in another year or two, and 2016 will be the minimum version one needs in a work environment where you're collaborating on docs made with newer versions.

I have no doubt that Microsoft has employees on the payroll who have no other function than creating annoying incompatibilities to encourage users onto the 365 treadmill.


I haven't kept up with the doc format story - are the ODF formats published, so LibreOffice can at least try to work with them? Or has MS closed them up again in the new versions?


I've been lucky enough to never have to actually develop ODF software for integration with Libre Office / MS Office, but from I've read, the specifications were half-heartedly published, and it is now basically a game where developers have to figure out all the exceptions to the interfaces that are within Office. Some work-around that might have worked yesterday might not work after an update of Office (which happens every few weeks).

Again, the cynical part of me assumes that MS employs full-time staff to ensure that Libre Office, Google Docs, and other apps that work with MS Office will never be even 95% compatible.

And from my experience, even simple spreadsheets and formatted Word docs don't display properly when opened in Google Docs or Libre Office, and large, complex business docs with macros and esoteric formatting don't have a chance.

There are a few developers in every place I've worked who use Libre Office because they're on Linux or refuse to pay for Office. And you can tell when they collaborate on a doc with MS Office users because it renders poorly when they send it back. It doesn't bother me, but I've seen how folks in management, marketing, etc. consider it unprofessional and assume the developer is just lazy or can't use Office well.

The one silver lining is that Linux users can use Office 365 online for less complex docs; it's not a full replacement for offline versions, but it's a better alternative than Libre for those of us who believe it better to be compatible with others even at the cost of a 365 subscription.


I got LibreOffice.


You also get the perpetual fallback license if you pay month to month for a year, for whatever version you had 12 months ago.

E.g. I start paying month-to-month at 2016.2, after 12 months I have a license to 2016.2. But say after the first month, 2017.1 comes out. Then after 13 months I now have a license for 2017.1.


Another, maybe less flattering, way of looking at this is that you're buying or rent-to-owning the current version and then getting demo copies of updates so long as you keep paying your lease.


Isn't this basically what a lot of paid software with licenses used to do anyway? It's still how paid forum software and CMS plugins tend to work, with the rule being that anything released while your license is active you have access to forever and anything released after it expires you have to upgrade to get.

Why can't all subscriptions work like those old license schemes do?


It feels pointlessly complicated to me, the IDE version of picodollars. Their pricing is already a great value and I'd happily pay them a premium not to ever have to look at another weird 'perpetual fallback' Gantt chart.


Developer Express has that too with their .NET components. We have dropped the subscription but are still using a version that's 3 years old but good enough for us.


This can become problematic when an OS update breaks the perpetual fallback license software. As a developer, you can tell the customer that they have to upgrade the software (for a fee) because they upgraded their OS, but customers aren't happy about this either.


About Ulysses specifically... they say when they were charging a monthly fee their users still expected regular updates after they paid.. and that sales would spike after a release, then fall to an unsustainable level: https://medium.com/building-ulysses/why-were-switching-ulyss...

"that price is vastly out of proportion from the cost of providing the software"

That's just an unfounded assumption by the author. He says he knows this, even though he doesn't know how many developers are working on it, what they get paid, how much time each release takes, how large the code base is, or how many users the product has. Essentially, he has made up a cost in his head, and decided that the costs must be less than his fantasy. For all we know, he's one of 2 users, and the cost for keeping his editor available is $100k/yr/user.

This also completely ignores the fact that prices for software aren't generally set using cost plus pricing.


well, that is economics 101. consumers price goods by value, not by costs. if your costs are higher than consumers are willing to pay, then you will at some point go bankrupt.


Exactly. No one cares what the product costs to make, they care what it costs from their own pocket. If the app isn't worth $40, then it doesn't have the features and/or the polish to have multiple full-time developers working on it. If the price people are willing to pay is lower than your cost of goods sold, lower your COGS or raise your value proposition. Those are the only options.


> If the app isn't worth $40

Ay, there's the rub. The problem is also related to price anchoring [1]: People [2] accepted the price of $70 for the perpetual value provided by the app (including cloud syncing), but balked at $40/year. The latter price makes the app more expensive over 2 years, and the developer promising updates doesn't have quite the impact to justify the change in the eyes of the angry customers.

If the app initially cost, say, $160, maybe the newer pricing would've been better accepted. I hear Adobe and Microsoft are doing quite well with the subscription models...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring

[2] The people who bought it. This is important, because it ignores all the people who thought this wasn't good value. Maybe some of the initial non-purchasers became subscribers. Market analysis is hard.


On the other hand, there's a million different competing not-microsoft-word text editors for writers. Whereas there's no real alternatives to adobe or microsoft products if you need them for your career.


> if you need them for your career.

if you need 'em for your career, then make the person providing your career pay for it.

if you're self-employed, then use an open alternative.


So I guess you’ve never used one of those “open” “alternatives”? Often broken mess, lacking features, incoherent or antiquated UI, etc., ending up costing you more in time needed to ge things done than the paid alternative.


> No one cares what the product costs to make

The production cost is one of the metrics customers use to decide if a price is fair or not, to them. There are other metrics, like the time that can be saved by using the product (ie. some way to quantify the product "use value"), but the production cost is often quite useful to detect abuses--and boy, aren't there a lot of attempts of such abuses.


> production cost is one of the metrics customers use to decide if a price is fair or not

only approximately, and only if the consumer really knows the cost.

Think jewlery (like diamonds), or expensive brand name goods like designer clothing. The production cost for those goods is "low", but the charge is in marketing and status symbol representation (which is modified via marketing).


It could be argued that those two examples are good cases where the customer could be concerned about the value they get, even including the status factor. Diamonds are notoriously high-priced because of a quasi-monopoly, and high-end clothing is pretty often of poor value, quality-wise. If you like designer clothes--and you're not on unlimited budget--you eventually learn what designers/brands to avoid, because the value is just not there, even for that industry.

So this looks like a case in point, where having a rough ideas of the production cost (some parts hand-made, made in France/Italy/England, expansive material like quality cashmere etc.) is important.


> consumers price goods by value, not by costs

But the point is he's a consumer and he isn't pricing by value - he's pricing by costs.


"consumers price goods by value, not by costs"

That is in itself a great argument for the subscription model. Consumes receive value from continued use over time, so why not fit revenue to the same shape?


I disagree, I saw it as him pricing by value, but mentioning that the costs don't seem to make sense either.


I feel like Ulysses wouldn't have gotten nearly so many complaints if (a) they'd given some way cross-apply the license purchase price to a subscription, instead of expecting recent purchasers to shell out a premium price a second time to get updates, and (b) they'd actually had any substantial feature updates to show for it, instead of almost all attention since then going to just making the iOS app act more like the desktop app.


> some way cross-apply the license purchase price to a subscription

They did do this. From the footnote to to their original announcement[1]

Recent purchases of the Mac app will unlock up to 12 months of free use, and purchases of the iOS app will unlock up to 6 months of free use. Your individual free-use duration is calculated from your actual purchase date, respectively, and if you bought Ulysses on both platforms, we will add together both periods.

[1] https://ulyssesapp.com/blog/2017/08/ulysses-switches-to-subs...


The real innovation of the *aaS model is that you no longer need to compete with prior versions of your own software or hardware infrastructure. You can hike prices, cut engineering costs, cut some nines off your availability, defeature, or just plain embrace incompetence, and, in the short term, it will improve your balance sheet.

Of course, in the long term, customers will revolt, and do so swiftly, and without mercy.


I don't know. I think a lot of people have decided they like things like the Adobe products subscription.

Instead of the several thousand dollars you would have had to pay for the various softwares in the lineup up front, you just pay $50 a month. Which is reasonable of you previously used more than just Photoshop and maybe upgraded every 3 to 4 years.

If the end result is a similar cost, I would much rather keep my capital in the business and make a monthly payment.


But 50€ a month is way too much for casual users.

I do some vector design work maybe once a month. I'd love to buy a license for Illustrator, if it cost whatever it used to cost before Creative Cloud. I would use it for a long time.

But 50€ per month is too much. So I bought a license for Affinity Designer instead. It covers most of my needs, and it's no subscription. I also bought a license for Sketch, since the subscription is optional.

I'd love to use the same tools as professional designers, but they've become too expensive.


They never became more expensive. They were extremely expensive to begin with and now they’re a lot cheaper. Previously it was like 500€ or so? That's too much for the casual user as well.

Here’s the reality. I used to pirate Adobe software because there was no way I was going to pay 1500k or whatever Photoshop was. Adobe got $0 from me.

Now I subscribe to get access to Photoshop. Adobe now gets £100 from me a year. I’m not the only person I know who went through this.

Of course, cheaper alternatives always existed. Adobe’s adoptance of subscription pricing hasn’t changed that.


I just checked the illustrator website. One year costs 287,77€. So it's only cheaper if you updated at least every two years. But I use my software a lot longer than that.

Software used to be an investment. At university, our physics department had a lot of old computers standing around, whose only purpose was to run some specific legacy software that was no longer maintained, but still worked perfectly.

During my time there, I convinced the theoretical physics department to buy a few Illustrator licenses so we could make better diagrams. I think the academic license cost 300€ per seat. They probably never updated, but I'd assume they still have a PC somewhere with one of those licenses installed, and if someone has a PDF from Inkscape with an incorrect Color Profile, they could still use that machine to fix it.

I think you underestimate how many people use old software out there. Sure, we tech folks update every year, but people who work outside of the tech bubble don't always upgrade a system that's working perfectly fine.


they are way way more expensive now. I only upgraded every other version so $199 every 4 years or $50 a year. current Photoshop subscriptions is $239 a year or nearly 5x the price


Where are you getting your prices? I never remember being able to buy photoshop for $199. I remember it more like $600+. And the website shows $120 annually and that includes Photoshop AND lightroom AND 20GB of cloud storage.

If you need more than just photoshop, the deal is even better.

https://www.adobe.com/creativecloud/plans.html


Honestly, the price I actually pay surprised me. I looked it up on my statement and I’m only paying £8.32/month (excluding VAT) for Photoshop.


What? Am I doing my math wrong? Photoshop upgrades were always $199. Photoshop subscriptions are $239 a year. So upgrading every 3 year is $199 vs paying a subscription for 3 year is $747. How is paying nearly 3x keeping money in your business?


The $199 upgrades were only after the initial PS purchase price of $699. The PS-only subscription is $9.99 a month. The $239 a year one "Includes 100GB of cloud storage, your own portfolio website, premium fonts, and social media tools". It is way cheaper now unless you go 5+ years without upgrades.


I wouldn't put any value to those perks. The average use of that 100GB storage is likely to be a very small fraction of that and all will cost pennies or less for Adobe to provide. Yes, if you just so happen to be in the market for all of those it would cost you some amount to source them independently. But the trend of bundling low-cost tangential services as a pricing defence strikes me as rather cynical.


You skipped over the meat of his post. If you don't need those extras, you can get photoshop AND lightroom for $9.99 a month. So you are getting it cheaper than you ever could.


There are some benefits in terms of product as well, if Adobe knows they have subscription revenue then they may be more focussed on fixing bugs and keeping existing customers than adding dubious features in an attempt to get upgrade revenue.


It works for Adobe, ReSharper or MSDN because people make their livelihoods off it. It makes less sense when it's a utility (window management) or tangential to your actual revenue stream (keeping notes).


Releasing new features and improvements is highly incentivized in the *aaS model. It’s the main way of boosting ARPC, and as you mentioned, if you fail to do it, you’ll be very vulnerable to competition. It doesn’t alway suit every situation, but in those that it does, it benefits both consumers and merchants.


The best model I know is the one used by Sketch (https://sketchapp.com/pricing/):

  A year of updates.
  A lifetime of Sketch

  Your license comes with a year’s worth of updates.
  Once that year is up, you can keep using the last 
  version of Sketch you downloaded, forever.
* You can always open the files you have made

* There is no incentive for feature creep caused by having to "sell" the next version to your current userbase every so often.

* The developer does not have to keep supporting old versions forever.


IMO this is much better than what IntelliJ does.


From the developers perspective though it is way easier to run a business when your software is sold on a subscription basis. If you know to a decent level of accuracy how much income you have, you can easily work out how much you can afford to spend to keep running and growing the business.

If you have no idea how much income you are going to make, stuff become a hell of a lot more complicated, unless you have a substantial cash reserve available - not a luxury that everyone has. The directors spend a hell of a lot more time running around banks begging for short term financing, cutting costs and planning out 100 different potential scenarios.

If I had to run another business, I would definitely look to running some kind of subscription scheme..


I get this, but how much more predictable are subscriptions? I mean, unless you are holding customers hostage with data lock-in, they are going to come and go.

And if you get a reputation as a hostage holder, you will likely spawn competition that avoids your negatives.

I’m sure you will get some residual low hanging fruit in the form of people that buy subscriptions and don’t care enough to cancel.

Doesn’t seem like a winning business model though.


Indeed they are going to come and go.

But, generally this will be to a much more predictable level that if you are relying on upfront sales. Unless you really mess up your product, if someone subscribed last month, you can generally predict that there is a, say, 95% chance that they will still be subscribed next month.

If it is a one off payment, then you know you aren't getting any income from them and you just have to hope your sale people are going to do their job next month.

It has nothing to do with lock in. That's a bit of a red herring. You can have just the same (or more) chance of a repeat subscriber by creating a really good product as you will with some kind of hostage strategy. As you say, not a winning business model.

My experience here comes from more business to business where a months worth of expenses would be covered with 1-2 sales. I had times when the sales people would just disappear on extended unannounced holidays or decide to move to a different job without informing anyone. With our business strategy relying so heavily on upfront sales to maintain the cash flow, it was not a fun position to be in!

Things may well be different with consumer products where sales volumes are in the thousands of units.


I look at something like Overcast. Great software that I subscribe to and give him his money. Almost by definition, and through great pains from the developer, there’s almost zero lock in for a podcast client.


Yes but Marco said that only about 10% pay for subscriptions. That's why he created his own ad platform.


Subscriptions are MASSIVELY more predictable. I say this after working daily for years with FP&A team on building revenue projections for a product that had both subscription and non-subscription sales models.

You realise that your post sounds like the stereotype of every bad manager ever? "How much harder could it be to build the new feature if we did X, Y, Z? Surely you can get it done in just three days?"


I must say I actually love the subscription model that is becoming the de facto standard.

If you sell a one time license to somebody there is no incentive for the seller to keep making the product better, to care keep caring for you.

With a subscription model - especially a non-annually-paid one, they have to keep working to keep you.

It's also a way more sustainable business model and probably the only thing which can replace ads in practice. If a service like facebook gets a load of money out of you per year, there's no way they would switch to a one-time fee instead. If it were to be replaced by a subscription though, then you're still a constant money flow for them, which would work much better.


How many products need constant feature updates? Aside from security/compatibility there are plenty of products that already meet everything required of them (to near everyone). How many new features does a file manager need? An PDF reader?

For Facebook - I don't think forced subscription would work. People would be forced to think about how much they value the service (a less ubiquitous one at that).


Not only feature updates. Also everyday bug, security updates and also operating costs.

1. Operating system 2. Programming IDE 3. Password Manager 4. Well I pay subscription for Netflix and Spotify but that's not really for the updates. Partly for new content, partly operating costs. 5. Facebook (I'd prefer to cover the operating costs by subscription, I really dislike ads) 6. Email - same as above

Also, actually I'd like all the services I use to provide feature updates now and then and continue trying to innovate.

Edit: also, if you do feature updates every now and then. Like it was with Windows or Photoshop. Then you end up having to support a lot of parallel versions with security and bug fixes which is wasted work really.


The model works for you - great. There are users who don't care for constant feature updates and rather own a product than perpetually rent it.


I do understand that. I'm not saying there's one size fits all. I just don't agree that subscribtions are inherently bad.

But - if those preferring a perpetual license were to be a strong minority, there would be no business incentive to make products in such a way.


> 3. Password Manager

This one is a total non-starter for subscription pricing. I'm not willing to use software that will potentially cut access to all my accounts if I stop paying them monthly.


Check out 1password. Read access is retained, and you still have everything stored offline.


Most password managers retain read access. The subscription is to sync between devices and delegate shared access across teams.


Not too mention when the features just become some massive bloat and ruin the core features of the product. Chat applications are pretty much the worst offender for this kind of thing.


> How many products need constant feature updates? Aside from security/compatibility there are plenty of products that already meet everything required of them (to near everyone). How many new features does a file manager need? An PDF reader?

Do you have any example of file managers or PDF readers with a subscription-based model?


Adobe Acrobat Pro, Foxit Phantom PDF. I'll concede I can't think of a file manager though.


>can't think of a file manager though

http://dopus.com/ not exactly subscription, but you buy a major version, and each new major version is a new purchase.


But those are PDF editors, not PDF readers.


True. How many new features do they need? What about word processors? Photo editors? Email clients? There are new features that could be useful, but for many users their needs are already fulfilled. Why should they have to continue paying for Photoshop as a service if they're happy with the current version? I apologise for my poor examples.


> Why should they have to continue paying for Photoshop as a service if they're happy with the current version?

Ultimately - because the person who owns the rights for the software wants to keep charging them and since it's their software they decide what is charged for it, end of story.

If it's not a good deal for you, go somewhere else. There's no point arguing about prices beyond that. There's no 'should' in prices - only what people want to charge and what people want to pay.


Right, they pay more because the company wills it and people (I think) are more receptive to subscribitions. This is what the author of the article is complaining about and the reason consumer advocacy groups exist.


No


When you say "working to keep you" I think you're imagining the software becoming more valuable and useful to you, such that you are happy to keep paying them.

In reality, those companies who don't do scummy things like attempt to lock your data or similar, will be out competed by those who do.


> If you sell a one time license to somebody there is no incentive for the seller to keep making the product better, to care keep caring for you.

I strongly disagree on this one. If they want to sell you version 2.0 (upgrade), they better make sure those new features are worth their money.

With a subscription model, you either keep paying them or you lose it all. Why would they improve their product when you're already paying them x/month?


Because in this case their competition will catch up and I will switch. Exactly as I did with play music -> Spotify.


On the other hand, since we are on HackerNews, this is a HUGE business opportunity.

Some time ago I bought Affinity Designer because I don't want to pay Adobe for a subscription. And going back to that website, one of the first things they promote is "No subscription. Only €54.99".

Seems obvious that any big player that is switching to subscription only, is leaving a gap for smaller companies that support people like us.


There really isn't a better way to run a business (even if it's just a single app) than to get someone to pay you an amount on a fixed interval. It's predictable and generally weathers shocks pretty evenly. This is also why for most investors dividends are a big selling point - consistency.

Even Apple somewhat relies on this, except it's been in 2 year intervals. It's the point of so called "planned obsolescence."

So if you're an indie developer, you only have a few options.

1.Go through the rat trap of doing ads and trying to grow a huge userbase with marketing etc..., which everyone hates but most tolerate because it's free.

2. Charge a 1 time fee and hope that you price it right to support long term development and sustainment, knowing that you'll probably limit your market significantly.

3. Charge a recurring low(er) fee and draw a balance between losing a lot of very price sensitive people and having to run a marketing campaign and ad system.

No good option there but subscription seems to have the most benefits. By the way, everything needs upkeep.


Seems weird to call Apple out for planned obsolescence considering their devices are generally supported by the manufacturer for considerably longer than the alternatives.


It's not directly comparable, however the two year upgrade is what they really want people to do - after all it was pretty definitive that they were degrading experience as a trade off on the battery issue.


> the company switched to a $40 a year annual subscription, and as the dozens of angry reviews and comments illustrate, that price is vastly out of proportion from the cost of providing the software

As a software (SaaS) developer, I find this comment outright bizarre. I find it is hard to make a living with $50/month subscriptions, if you write niche software (and believe me, you DO write niche software, you are not Dropbox), much less support an entire company.

Have you actually done the numbers before writing that "price is vastly out of proportion"? Just take the total cost (roughly 2x salary) of several people, divide by that $40/year and see how many subscriptions you come up with. I'm getting ~25000 subscriptions for 5 employees, just to break even, and we haven't even touched the marketing required to get 25000 subscriptions.


> that price is vastly out of proportion from the cost of providing the software

Furthermore, only devs complain about the "proportion of providing the software". Didn't especially Indie devs here on HN take their time to learn the lessons of value-based pricing?

I do charge monthly for my app. It's 30 bucks a year for a B2C app. Expensive some might say, fair for others. But I can at least confidently tell that most users use my app every single day. And people who won't use it for more than a few months came away way cheaper than if the one-time-fee was 30-40 bucks to start with.

Oh and providing an app as a one-time-fee for $5 or some ridiculous undervalued price that is considered "acceptable" simply doesn't work in niches.


I think that most armchair-businesspeople underestimate the costs of running a business and overestimate the number of paying customers. It is particularly ironic, because they both do not want to pay for software themselves, and also think that masses of other people do want to pay for software.

People tend to think that the costs of a software business are just the time of the single developer that writes the software. And they also calculate the cost of that time as what developers actually get as their salary. But this is not how you run a business, not by a long shot.

This gap in understanding has been widening recently, because of the completely unsustainable app store pricing.


Have you considered that perhaps a fucking text editor doesn't need a team of five employees? This isn't a brain-surgery guidance program, it's a Markdown text editor that uses a sync system written and operated by somebody else.

Users are balking at the price because it's garbage to expect them to support some gigantic business for a simple thing. This is very common (1Password has over 75 employees!!!) and the sense of entitlement developers have to try to force their users to support a grandiose business, no matter how bloated and unnecessary the people are, isn't sustainable.


It seems to me that you haven't written an application of similar complexity. Also, Ulysses is not one app, it's a Mac app and two mobile apps, for iPhone and iPad, yes they are quite different. Have you actually used the app? Seen the customizable theming system? The export to PDF/Text/ePub/docx/HTML? The way you can rearrange and group sheets? The smart folder system? And most of that is present in the mobile apps, too.

You are underestimating the complexity of writing, maintaining, documenting, supporting and marketing apps of this size. I think my guess of ~5 people is about right, they might be able to do it with a smaller team, but probably not less than 3. I'd say 2 developers and one person to do marketing/support is a minimum.


True. A subscription to Office 365 comes down to 99 Euros per years. Of course you’d pay maybe 150 every three years or so for a new version back in the days, but still that’s double.

Also, I wonder whether this will lead to a slower development of the software. Before you’d have to create a leap forward to impress people to buy the new version, if the old version was still good enough.


I like that you mentioned Office 365 because I see that as "subscription done right." You can still buy perpetual licenses for the components of Office, you can easily store the data you created with those components locally, and if you stop paying for Office-as-a-subscription the same programs still let you view (but not edit) your data.

Carrot Weather App is another good one. Pay $5 once to get a really polished weather app with some basic "cloud" functions thrown in, like notifications to a phone device, some fun "achievements," and a pretty good weather data feed. If you want the super-accurate feed or if you want more advanced notifications and mobile device access (e.g. repeatedly on your Apple Watch), pay up for the subscription because it costs the dev more. And, if you stop paying, that $5 you initially paid is still valuable because the underlying app still works.


Conversely, I find Carrot Weather ridiculous when Dark Sky is $4 one time and uses the exact same data source. They (DS) don't try to gouge you for Apple Watch features, which I interpret as "they're probably rich so why not?"

$4 a year (or $10, if you don't dismiss the 'ultrapremium club' popup and buy that by mistake) plus the $5 one time is not remotely what I would consider worth paying for a weather app unless Carrot was out in the wild building weather stations.

You'll also note that Carrot's website nor App Store description even mention the existence of this buy-up (except on the support page - but why would I look at the support page for an app I was thinking about buying?) or the pricing. They also deceptively show a photo of the Apple Watch showing weather, which is technically correct (the best kind of correct) - but the Apple Watch doesn't update in the background (or give you weather notifications) unless you pay for a subscription. Because weather apps that don't update are really useful.

Also, it doesn't "cost the dev more" to send updates to a watch instead of the phone (they're going through the phone anyway,) so I don't buy your justification for paying more for it. It's just a way to market segment and try to scam more money from people who have already paid above market for a weather app. You get Weather Underground data with the 'cheap' sub... but only on the phone. If you want it on the watch, you have to get the expensive sub. This also makes no sense. There's no way in hell wxug is charging extra based on the target device.


Jetbrains also has it done "right" I think... yearly license fee... and the version at the time of payment is "perpetual" while you get to continue getting updates as long as your license is "current".

Stop paying? When you aren't "current" you can either pay up... or downgrade to your perpetual version "owned".


It is also surprising how much other subscriptions cost compared with Office 365. Office 365 contains the most complete office suite in existence, probably larger than many operating systems. It also includes 1TB of OneDrive, and free monthly Skype minutes. And the 99 Euros that you quote are for five persons.

Most subscription software is a terrible deal in comparison. I have tried to avoid subscription software as much as possible. But we have a family subscription for 1Password because $REASONS. We pay $60 per year for (in comparison to Office) a small software product, with small cloud storage, of which we only need a couple of megabytes for storing encrypted passwords.

Also, I wonder whether this will lead to a slower development of the software.

Most likely. Once you are locked into some proprietary data format, it is often more expensive to move to an alternative, and it is easier to subscribe. Once a substantial part of the user base has a subscription, there is no more need to entice users with a new version.

Subscription software does not benefit the user.


There was some low hanging fruit for companies to create subscription plans who shouldn’t have been adding them. The more subscriptions your target customer has, the harder it is to convert them on the new one. For the business side the ceiling is a lot higher, but for consumers there is a very low limit.

Each market is different, but when I look at an area like Photoshop or Illustrator, the competition keeps getting better. In some areas they aren’t even competing.

The workflow of a game artist will have them going through a bunch of different products to get to an end result. A lot of those steps can have alternatives. If a vendor has some proprietary format that doesn’t work with anything else they never even get a user base.

If a subscription is funding continuous development, and th company is doing a good job, and I use the software daily it doesn’t bother me. If I use it twice a year, I’m going to be looking hard at alternatives.


Its going to be a real problem for Adobe. Their biggest apps (PS/AI/IND) haven’t had real upgrade worthy updates in years. Competing apps like Affinity Photo are pretty much 1 to 1 replacements. Eventually some significant portion of Adobe’s core users are going to go elsewhere.


It's not even that - they basically are back to just the isolated professional market now as the majority of built-in apps do many of the enhancements that the cheaper subscription licensees would have sought out Adobe for. No one except aspiring professionals really needs the majority of Adobe projects to do competent looking amateur work anymore.

Subscriptions from Adobe were meant to soften the initial sale, but Adobe's own rigidity with the subscription schemes on release shot them in the foot, as organizations had to wait a long time for a model to come out that met the needs of small/medium businesses who previously could have made due with a few perpetual licenses. The storage was pretty sad even at the time of the switch, so that wasn't a compelling sales point either.

I think Adobe just didn't pull the numbers they were expecting when they switched, and now they're stuck with this model and infrastructure they don't know what to do with.


Maybe subscriptions will start going down, but Adobe's most recent quarterly earnings report [https://wwwimages2.adobe.com/content/dam/acom/en/investor-re...] says:

>Creative revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2018 was $1.23 billion, up from $942.2 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2017 and representing 30% year-over-year growth.

So not only are they still selling, but subscriptions increased 30% over the past year. Clearly it's working for them so much that they're finding success doing the same thing for the document cloud:

>Document Cloud revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2018 was $231.0 million, up from $195.9 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2017 as we continue to transition Document Cloud to a subscription-based model.


> Most subscription software is a terrible deal in comparison.

This is actually my way of making decision to buy a subscription-based product. It must provide comparable service. Office 365 single user license costs around 70$/year. Now:

- Evernote is asking 60$/year. Seriously? One note is already offering same service with 1TB storage.

- Pocket is asking 45$/year. WTF? It is just a bookmarking service which is already offered by one note web clipper.

- Proton mail is asking 50$/year for 5GB mail box. Dude, Office 365 offers 50GB add-free mail box. However NSA is able to read your emails, which is not the problem here. At least MS is not selling my information to advertisers.

Other than streaming services, It is getting really difficult to find any subscription-based product that gets close to Office 365.


> Subscription software does not benefit the user.

Depends on software, subscription and benefits...

I think Office and Jetbrains are softwares done "right". They continually release updates - quarterly?... continually add new features...

I think more companies get it "wrong" than get it "right"... but done right, the company has reasons to keep developing - no new stuff? no continued monies. no new monies.


> Also, I wonder whether this will lead to a slower development of the software. Before you’d have to create a leap forward to impress people to buy the new version, if the old version was still good enough.

I am not sure if that would be bad, though. Often enough, I feel that software vendors either just change the UI so they can show non-technical people how "improved" their new version is (MS Office), or they introduce arbitrary incompatibilities, so you need the most recent version to edit files that have been created/modified with that new version (I'm looking at you, Autodesk!).

With a subscription model, at least these vendors could focus on changes that actually provide value to their customers rather than making arbitrary changes just to make people buy a new version they might not really need.


That is a good point, regarding the stunting of the software industry.


Many economical models (including working 9 to 5, btw) came from the times of physical labor. At that time the part of labor was relatively small in the cost structure, and the part of materials was big. And since materials is a one-time expense, it was natural to have one-time pricing.

In the knowledge-based industry such as software the cost of labor has the biggest share in cost structure. And unlike materials, the labor itself is a subscription. Social policies that make firing hard make it even more so. No wonder that revenue structure also tends to shift towards subscription-based models.


A less charitable analysis is that the software industry has failed to deliver reliable software so spectacularly that it requires constant upkeep from a team of professionals to maintain a text editor like Ulysses.


Ulysses has a custom markdown feature that I thought was great. The only problem was that you couldn't use it without opting in to use their own file based storage schema. So if you wanted to store your writings in "regular" files and sync them yourself etc., you couldn't use the custom markdown feature.

I thought this was absolutely ridiculous since the custom markdown would have simply gotten written as plain text. I asked why they're limiting the user like that and got even more ridiculous response: apparently they didn't want other people to get confused in case I ever shared the files that were outside their own file based schema. This non sequitur infuriated me enough to ditch the software.

None of it made any sense until they announced the subscription model.


Ulysses is an egregious example as they cost more than MS Office in many cases, which is particularly noxious when you consider how little a markdown editor does in comparison.

I’m always annoyed about whiny iOS developers complaint about how they cannot make money without obnoxious schemes like this or gambling mechanisms. Software ISVs in olden times had a tiny market, huge expenses around retail channels and distributors, etc. They made money.


It's frustrating, but people wouldn't do it if it didn't work.

You will generally make far more money charging $5/mo forever than you will charging $50 once for identical software. Not to mention the steady cash flow.

An extreme example, but I always pirated Photoshop (as did probably half the people who ever used Photoshop). But now I pay $60/mo for it and a bunch of the other Creative Suite apps. I never would have paid whatever the 4-figure price was even when I was getting paid to make graphics at work. But I'll gladly pay $60/mo to have access to everything now even though I don't get paid for any graphics or video work.


edit: disregard my comment below, as others have reminded me, the yearly charge is for updates and will not stop you from using it completely if you decide not to renew it, you just don't get any more updates. So this isn't the best example

> I have noticed this as well, that a not-small number of software programs have turned from "give us one money for this version" to "give us slightly smaller amount of one money per month, but do it in perpetuity if you want to keep going with the data you've entered."

Like Sketch App which used to be just US$99[1] and is now US$99/year[2]. Although in this example, "slightly smaller" doesn't apply

1. https://web.archive.org/web/20160416212244/http://sketchapp....

2. https://www.sketchapp.com/pricing/


But the website says:

Your license comes with a year’s worth of updates. Once that year is up, you can keep using the last version of Sketch you downloaded, forever.

That sounds ok to me.


Ah yes I completely forgot about that and you're right, that does sound ok to me


What happens if there is a security hole in your version?


The same thing that used to happen to you before everything was a subscription--you will run insecure software.


I don't know about any software that is supported indefinitely. One day you need to upgrade, it's fair enough.


Air gap it.


After that year, you get to keep using the product and your files though. You're just paying for updates.


Look at our old software from the past decades. Old archived documents sitting in some obscure presentation program like Harvard Graphics. Now imagine not being able to load that data at all, even though you have the save file and the program, because the licensing server literally no longer exists.

Now imaging a world 15 years from now where Adobe totally goes under due to competitors making much better programs. Their servers go away and now, and you can't even start your licensed software without running it through a debugger and trying to crack the license check.


> Many founders choose SaaS simply because they want the recurring revenue. Just because you like the model as a founder, doesn’t mean it’s the right model for your customers!

(from https://justinjackson.ca/saas/)


> Sure, have a subscription service for something that needs upkeep, like a syncing service (but get out of here if all you do is just lump it into the user's iCloud storage) or a data feed.

This. If you sell an app and service together, you can charge a recurring fee. If your app is more traditional, then a one time fee for the app is appropriate. Note, this does not mean that you can just add a service willy nilly like and start charging a recurring fee. That's crap.


That's crap is not exactly a great reason for why one can or can't do something. I'm reading a lot of people with strong opinions, but I'd like to see the reasoning behind them.


A restaurant has some really popular plates, fancy looking things. Owner sees a way to generate revenue, so he sells the plates for $5 and every time you bring the plate back, you can refill it for $10 (which is a discount off normal prices). That's a pretty good deal for everyone, this is good.

Alternatively, same restaurant has some really popular plates, fancy looking things. Owner sees a way to generate revenue, so he sells the plates for $5 and a recurring fee of $1 per month. That's it, nothing else. Why would I want this? What's in it for me?


Why would I want this? What's in it for me?

Why must there be something for you? The thing in it for you is the same as before: the plates. If they're no longer worth it for you, that's fine, but that's the same if the owner had kept the same model but simply raised the prices or reduced the size of portions. I don't see why that's "crap" or "inappropriate".

The only exception I see is people who already bought a plate; I fully agree they should be allowed to keep using it as-is for free, since otherwise that's a breach of an existing agreement. But there's no such agreement between the owner and prospective buyers.


In scenario two, why should the plate get more expensive over time? It's the same exact plate. Nothing changes about it. I don't get a service where chips are fixed. I don't get a discount on food occasionally. Nothing. So, there's no _reason_ for the monthly fee, from the perspective of the purchaser.

You seem to be taking issue with my word choice, but I stand by that choice. The second scenario is a crappy deal. It's "Crap" for the consumer. I don't know anyone in their right mind who would go for deal number two willingly.


There is a difference between paying for tools that bring value, and discretionary spending.

If I am paying for software that I use to be more efficient and increases my profits, I am OK with a subscription model, or whatever model is offered. This is, as long as the cost of the software is considerably lower than the value bump I get from using it.

With discretionary spending, it takes a lot for me to buy a subscription. If I spend more than X% of a given month consuming what that subscription provides, I will consider buying it. Otherwise, I am fine not consuming that particular service at all.

I subscribe to a few magazines and Spotify. I read content online from many sources, but will not buy a subscription to each one of them. None of them are valuable enough for me to subscribe.

If there was a way to pay, say $20 per month, and have a set of credits that I could redeem at Washington Post, The Economist, New York Times, Bloomberg, etc, on a per-article basis (I make the decision after the first paragraph or two) I would jump at that right away. The system would need to be very user friendly and almost friction-free.


If there was a way to pay, say $20 per month, and have a set of credits that I could redeem at Washington Post, The Economist, New York Times, Bloomberg, etc.

blendle.com offers basically exactly what you're asking for. (Not in any way affiliated with the site, just an occasional user)


> If there was a way to pay, say $20 per month, and have a set of credits that I could redeem at Washington Post, The Economist, New York Times, Bloomberg, etc, on a per-article basis

i think this model doesn't work (but i'm willing to be pleasantly surprised). Imagine you read 10 articles a day, 30 days a month. That's 300 articles - that's about 6.6 cents an article, spread across many different organizations.

Those articles will need a readership in the 10,000's per article for any sort of return on investment with those sort of prices. Granted, a high quality article is going to be able to reach that, but there's limited time per person to read, and that 10 articles per day read is on the high end - most people read much less than that.


In the EU, the GDPR will make data takeout APIs (or some guy exporting as CSV and mailing it to you) mandatory.


> data takeout APIs

the data will be useless other than as a source of information. If you have data for an online vector editor, the vector data can be legally taken out via a common format (such as json), but there'll be no importers for this shape of data.

Any business can easily construe a common machine readable format that's also completely custom, and unimportable anywhere else, to satisfy the letter of the law.


That is a rather cynical take. More pragmatically, while it may be true that companies don't immediately jump at the opportunity to export in a common format (or there may be too many standards to export as), there is suddenly a market for data adapters if the companies do not import from their competitors, and a missing feature on a product sheet in any case.


If it's any sort of bigger service, competing services will implement their special format.

If they frequently change this format to break those implementations or clearly make it much more complex than it needs to be, that can also have legal repercussions.


Mandatory, yes, but the GDPR does not say it should be done for free. I offer data exports for all my services, so I'm compliant with the GDPR, but you will have to pay me for my time


Careful, there, it does say that in Article 12, (5):

"Information provided under Articles 13 and 14 and any communication and any actions taken under Articles 15 to 22 and 34 shall be provided free of charge".

(Article 15 is the Right of access by the data subject.)

You can only charge for subsequent copies or when "requests from a data subject are manifestly unfounded or excessive".

--

See also the ICO FAQ on the subject: https://ico.org.uk/for-organisations/guide-to-the-general-da...


This is not the case. (Article 12 (5)) https://gdpr-info.eu/art-12-gdpr/


I’ve been really stoked with Adobes offering around this, full access to all their products for $30 a month or so.


Except, if the only app you need is photoshop you can own Affiniy Photo for $30. Or, you can own Affinity Design for $30. And this one is the real kicker, Blackmagic is giving away most of what you need for free, and if you need more you can get a permanent license for a few hundred bucks. How long do you think it will be before Adobe starts really bleeding.


Adobe has had cheaper competitors for ever - basically the only move it’s competitors have is to be cheaper. Adobe still exists.


I should also add, Quark was the king until it wasn’t. Adobe will be the king until they aren’t.


In the past Adobe’s competition wasn’t as good. Now, the competitors products are just as good. In the past PS competitors lacked features pros needed like PMS spot channels/CMYK/LAB. Not anymore. And Resolve is very compelling in the video realm.

Many of Adobe’s core products have languished at the same time as many of the features that set them apart in the past are become less differentiating. The photo editing/vector drawing space is becoming more commoditized.


Which is the "just as good" alternative to Lightroom? I've found its tools to be astonishingly high quality. Adjustments have exactly the effect you expect them to, instead of something closely adjacent to what you expect. The spot remover is basically magical. RAW handling is top notch.

I haven't seen anything at all that comes close on a cheaper model.


I’ll have to checkout black magic.


> I have noticed this as well, that a not-small number of software programs have turned from "give us one money for this version" to "give us slightly smaller amount of one money per month, but do it in perpetuity if you want to keep going with the data you've entered."

Frankly, the writing has been on the wall for something like at least 10 years and surely came into life once Adobe announced the CS 5.5 subscription model in 2011.



The difference is you used to pay for a new version. Software 2 would be charged for another $50. Whereas now you pay for Software and it gets improved in perpetuity. It should be charged as such.


In general, software has zero marginal cost, so in theory, it's price should fall near zero due to competition. So why is the subscription market behave so different ?

And what can be done about that ?


It's almost like the industry is not perfectly competitive...


Well, one could argue that the price is near zero. It is very rare software product that does not have somehow usable open source competitor. Then what you are paying for is something else than the zero marginal cost basic functionality. Like support, branding, network effect rents or something else.


Basically user's time invested. They know how to use the current software "I NEED Photoshop to do my job!!!".

Even if some other software has the same or even slightly better abilities at a lower cost, the overall cost of switching is much greater. Especially if someone else is paying for the tools.

Until some software appear that make user's competition more efficient and they are forced to learn new ways to not get out competed.

Then the cycle starts all over again.


Even with zero marginal cost, you can still have substantial fixed costs. And actually costs don't define prices — what the market will bear defines prices.


> what the market will bear defines prices.

only if there's no competition, or there are substantial barriers to entry (such as regulation).


I was looking at a piece of hardware, that had some software that runs with it. Same deal. You buy the hardware but if you want to use the app.... it's a subscription.


Price gouging will create opportunities for new entrants.


One perfect example of a shitty conversion to subscription is the adobe suite.


One-time payments for software amount to a pyramid scheme where you benefit from the money of future users. That's not without its downsides either, where your userbase grows indefinitely yet doesn't pay for its own support-email rent.

There's obviously a middle ground, like being able to at least use the version you paid for indefinitely but having to pay a smaller price to upgrade. But which direction a pricing structure goes also depends a lot on the niche and type of software.

Citing the worst examples of "subscription abuse" isn't really an argument either. Of course you can find examples on each end of a spectrum. But as far as most software pricing goes, if it's so bad, then people wouldn't pay.


There's a flaw in your logic: You assume that everyone keeps using every app they bought forever. If that was the case, pay-once would be unsustainable.

However, that is not the case. Everyone stops using your app at some point. So you don't need to support users forever, you just need to support them for some finite amount of time. Some users might use your app for a few years, some use your app just for a few weeks. Some users will email you half a dozen times, but most will never email you. Your app price should be priced so you can afford to support the average user.

And another thing that people forget: When your user base is growing, the amount of word of mouth recommendation you get also grows, and you automatically start selling more licenses, so your revenue also grows.

Pay-once and subscription aren't really that different in practice. Pay-once even has an advantage: You get all the money up front. And that's awesome if you are planning to grow your company.


> There's a flaw in your logic: You assume that everyone keeps using every app they bought forever. If that was the case, pay-once would be unsustainable.

There's also a flaw in this logic: It assumes that all apps require some kind of server provided by the developer in order to run.

Once upon a time, standalone software was standalone and could run in perpetuity without requiring anything more of the original developer. It's still entirely possible to write software like this, there's just a trend away from it due to the prevalence of always-on internet connections and the ease of keeping some of your application server-side as a form of copy protection.


Until your standalone software answers customer support requests automatically, you‘re still going to have variable costs that grow with your user base.


It's trivial to only supply customer support for a limited time after sale of the software, or to offer a separate support contract for customers who require support.


“Hi, I lost my license key!”

“Thanks for contacting us! Our standard license includes support for 12 months after purchase. I’ve attached an offer for our extended support contract. I’m looking forward to your response!”


It's not a flaw. That's just uncertainty and a gamble. Whether that's sustainable for a given piece of software varies per product. And that's kind of the point I'm making.

The extent at which some users subsidize the app for others is just one of the decisions you need to make when deciding on a pricing structure, not a rebuttal.


> One-time payments for software amount to a pyramid scheme where you benefit from the money of future users. That's not without its downsides either, where your userbase grows indefinitely yet doesn't pay for its own support-email rent.

This logic applies to literally any one-time purchase that includes a warranty, yet the consumer goods sector has managed it somehow. What's really happening is a deterioration of the idea of "owning[1]" software. I'm sure it's great for the publisher, but it's almost all downside for the user. I'm still using an email app that was acquired and shut down by Google in 2012 and it continues to work just fine. On PC I use WinRAR from 10 years ago with no issue. I can't imagine having to pay for all of these little apps on a subscription basis and then having to find alternatives when the creators get acquired/go bankrupt because the subscription is no longer supported.

Edit: To add to that, if the cost of the subscription is to provide me with superior support, will publishers selling me these subscriptions be removing the warranty disclaimer from their EULA? Probably not, right?

[1] Yes, you never "owned" it, but licensed a copy - but in practice it was similar to owning a physical good.


You're exposed to pretty serious security vulnerabilities if you're still using a 10-year-old version of WinRAR to unrar/unzip/uncompress files you get from the internet.


There's a difference between charging for updates and charging for continued use. What if Sublime Text started charging a monthly fee just to use it? There's no excuse.

> But as far as most software pricing goes, if it's so bad, then people wouldn't pay.

And yet people keep paying ransomware for access to their important files.


If the sublime folk offered a “bug fix only” monthly subscription, I’d buy that. My grandfather went through a half day’s paycheck of tooling a month on his own dime. I figure bug fixes are the software equivalent of sharpening chisels, buying new bits, surfacing a mill, etc.


> If the sublime folk offered a “bug fix only” monthly subscription, I’d buy that. My grandfather went through a half day’s paycheck of tooling a month on his own dime. I figure bug fixes are the software equivalent of sharpening chisels, buying new bits, surfacing a mill, etc.

Except bits don't rot?


New OS versions (especially from Apple) regularly create new bugs or completely break compatibility with old software. The cost of upkeep is not entirely predictable and easy to "price-in" to the upfront cost.


Can't speak for Apple I guess, but this isn't exactly the normal case on Windows.


Microsoft jumps through hoops for backwards compatibility, often to their own detriment. Apple - comparatively, not absolutely - almost ignores backwards compatibility...also often to their own detriment.


They don't rot but they get rusty.


Like Webstorm?

I do feel that I get value for my money and with the yearly fee I get all the updates (which are important in the ever changing world of web development), but sometimes it still feels like protection racket.


Jetbrains does not require subscriptions for continued use of any version. Purchasing a 12-month subscription (which is cheaper than their previous "perpetual license") gives you a perpetual license for the current version of software.

This is actually my favourite licensing technique I have come across for software.

https://sales.jetbrains.com/hc/en-gb/articles/207240845-What...


There’s a difference though. Previously the version you ended up with was the one at the end of the year of updates. In the current model you have to reinstall the old version of the time of purchase, undoing the updates you got. It’s actually quite clever since you immediately notice what you’re missing by not paying.


You can actually keep your next current version by buying for a few months to extend to the next 12 month anniversary. See last timeline example on this page:

https://sales.jetbrains.com/hc/en-gb/articles/207240845-What...


I could have sworn they offer specials or something where you can get the current and next version.. can't recall, I end up upgrading each year to keep my discount going.


no, not like webstorm. Webstorm is pretty similar to sublime text. You pay a price for a perpetual license. After one year of use, you can decide whether you keep on using the 'old' version, or if you pay again to have the newest one with all the updates. I think the comment you were referring to was thinking about stuff like adobe, where if you don't pay, you don't get anything.


Indeed, you're right. Don't Adobe give you some "cloud storage" thing though? Fortunately now that we're using Figma I don't have to deal with the hundred pound gorilla called Photoshop.


Sorry but nobody is forcing you to use sublime.

If they started charging just for use they wouldn't need neither an excuse nor a justification.

I really don't see your point.

If you could explain further why you think sublime would need an excuse for charging a monthly fee I would really appreciate.


>If they started charging just for use they wouldn't need neither an excuse nor a justification.

Actually they'd need both.

And companies are not so dumb as not to understand this. Any company that started charging or went into a subscription model, offered both excuses and justifications for doing so.

You might be think "it's a free country, it's their product, and they can do anything with it".

Which is true in a trivial way (they're allowed by the law to do anything they like in that area), but it's also wrong.

Wrong in that in practice they're not really free: to survive they are bound to the market and their customers responses.

So they're free only as much as they're OK with pissing their user base and potentially losing sales (or have most of them go for some other product, and kill their own user base -- e.g. Quark xPress vs Adobe Indesign, and tons of other similar examples).


Yeah, I don't see the reason besides "I don't like it" either.

If the problem is access to files, then they could just have a free converter tool to some standard format.


The middle ground doesn't work. See MS Windows update hell.

The way things should work is like this: Subscription for when you want to use the software and open format data files that you're always easily able to export and download.

If a company goes out of business or does something stupid then another one will pop up to handle your needs. This aligns incentives correctly while still allows a healthy dose of competition.


> The middle ground doesn't work

The "middle ground" has been the most common model for desktop app pricing for decades. You buy version X of a product. When the next major version is released you pay an upgrade price.

In fact, the "middle ground" has been the norm for the majority of software apps over the history of desktop computing. It's the SaaS subscription model for cloud-hosted software that is the new deviation. But that cloud-based subscription model is now leaking into desktop apps (like the Adobe suite).


It was easier to price software like a physical good when the distribution method was identical to other physical goods. You'd go to the store and give them $50 to leave with a box that contained a disk. When you wanted vN+1, you'd repeat this process. It all made sense to the user. That model is collapsing as digital distribution takes over.

Also, Adobe's tools have always been among the most pirated software out there. People who needed to do occasional work wanted Photoshop but there was just no way they were going to drop $700 on it. Nowadays, Adobe just charges them an $11/mo fee. That makes it much easier and I know several instances where this newer model has resulted in real income for Adobe, from what would've otherwise been pirate installs.

People are much more willing to pay a small fee several times than a massive fee once. The subscription makes them feel like they have more control and they can cancel when they don't need the product anymore (not always true because some of Adobe's subscriptions have annual lock-ins). It reduces the friction from "figure out how to pay us more than your car payment" to "just send us the cost of a trip to Starbucks, it will only take a couple of minutes and you'll be merrily on your way".

This dramatically changes the incentives re: piracy. Instead of spending hours trying to find a cracked build from a site that won't pwn your PC so that you can save hundreds of dollars, you just pay a few bucks and speed through with a known-good version (plus a clean conscience).

It's almost a side benefit that subscriptions frequently represent additional lifetime value v. a "pay once" model.


> The "middle ground" has been the most common model for desktop app pricing for decades. You buy version X of a product. When the next major version is released you pay an upgrade price.

Mobile app stores killed that model, when they made continuous, perpetual updates the norm. At the time, everybody was too busy pointing out the implications of going from 50$ to 50ct when the even bigger change was a farewell to major version upgrade sales.

But there, after a few cycles of companies ruining themselves by hiring in the short-lived money surge of growing an app to saturation, parts of the industry seem to have found their way to quite reasonably priced subscriptions.


>Mobile app stores killed that model, when they made continuous, perpetual updates the norm.

Continuous, perpetual updates are definitely NOT the norm in mobile apps.

Some get some bug-fixes and the occasional new feature, but any major update lands a version 2.0.

Far more (the "long tail") are just abandoned (like all those thousands of 32-bit apps being deprecated in the iOS store).


Both apple and google don't support 'pay for upgrade' model. Its either subscription or pay once. Of course, you can roll out your own payment gateway(which apple has further issues with) or re upload the app under a new v2 name, but those are not very satisfactory solutions.


There is a way to provide upgrade pricing for iOS. It's an ugly hack though....

2015 - you sold v1 for $5.00

2017 - you start selling v2.

You sell v1 for $5.00 but in the description tell everyone not to buy it.

You sell v2 for $5.00 but direct people who have already bought v1 to buy the bundle of v1 and v2 that you price at $8. Anyone who has already bought v1 can buy the bundle for $3.


and now, you have v3. The bundling will grow exponentially!


It’s quadratic, not exponential. For N versions, you have prices:

  N * (N + 1) / 2
It is likely that you could reduce to something approaching an upper bound of 2*N, as with version 8 out, you can drop support for a discounted upgrade from v2 to v4.


I stand corrected!


>or re upload the app under a new v2 name, but those are not very satisfactory solutions.

Not very satisfactory, but very prevalent.

And, I'd say, given the low price of apps, it might be just right to not offer any special discount for an upgrade. You could always reward older users some other way.


An alternative is intentionally packaging releases into tiers (performance, stability, feature, etc) and sell them as such. Something closer to Windows XP service packs than individual updates. I'd expect small, necessary updates to continue to exist as they do.

A user can buy the base version, then a few months later when you create a release that allows processing widgets through the program twice as fast, they can update for a small fee. This would force the developer to create updates that would be easy to communicate the benefits of to the consumer.

It'd be a bit more difficult to figure out pricing for new users over time and which version they receive, but it would allow they old pricing model without forgoing the benefits of incremental development over time.


> An alternative is intentionally packaging releases into tiers (performance, stability, feature, etc) and sell them as such.

That could quickly devolve into supporting a large number of distinct versions of the software, which would be difficult and costly. Nobody wants to do that.

Not to mention that, if this versioned software is a platform (for example, WinXP and its service packs you mention), downstream vendors would also need to QA and support their software on all actively supported versions of said platform.


So, basically, DLC.


Actually, it works in software that many of us use every day. Once again, there's more nuance to making an argument than being able to point out a single absolute example. Why is this such popular rhetoric on HN? Especially in such a varied imprecise world of pricing structures?

I use various bits of successful software like Transmit and Alfred that let you update until the next major version in which you must pay again.


It "works" in the way that having insecure software on your computer "works" which is to say that it doesn't work, we just put up with computers where the non-technical don't know the mess they are in. Every major operating system (iOS, Android, Windows, QNX) or widely used software application (MS Office, any browser, any widely used app) issues emergency security patches.

The reality is that having everyone on the same version drastically simplifies not just security, but also interoperability. It isn't 1998 anymore. The default is internet connectivity and we should stop pretending our apps are secure when they are not.


I don't need a secure MSpaint.

Now you do you, and I'll use Goldwave v4.0 for basic audio edits - exactly the same tool I used in 2000, one that works well and I never had to re-learn.

I despise tools that capriciously change in my hands. Extra "security" is not worth the productivity hit.

Again, Internet connectivity isn't my default. Dropbox can handle that, and that software gets all the updates. The tools I use to make stuff I put in Dropbox better all be offline and never changing unless I say so.

That applies to the office suite, DAW, graphics editor, etc. I haven't seen anything their online features could give except a cloud lock-in.

You may value extra security, often necessitated by the very virtue of the software being online. And I value the ability to use without having to think about whether the signal is strong and my card payments went through.

The reality is that the interests of the users are often not aligned with the interests of software vendors.


There is a kind of perverse incentive not to work too hard to secure software when doing so removes a critical reason to buy the updates.

That being said I do think truly securing an application requires first having a secure platform. Otherwise users could indefinitely demand mitigations at the application layer until it contains most of its own OS.


> Of course you can find examples on each end of a spectrum.

A good example is the Adobe Creative Suite 6 Master Collection which was so expensive to buy in Australia that it was cheaper to fly to the US, buy a copy and fly back. Now, you can get a years subscription to Creative Cloud for 'All Apps' for about 1/5th of the price of what CS6 MC was in Australia. It is still expensive, and after 4 or 5 years you will have spent more but thats significantly longer than Office 365 which costs about 2/3rd the price per year of a copy of Office 2016 outright.


Did you know that every physical good sold is a pyramid scheme using your definition?

In the US, companies have product liability to correct defects for the lifetime of the product, subject to routine limitations. [1]

So companies create business models to compensate for this limitation.

Companies figured this out with software decades ago, so it’s certainly possible (eg, Microsoft).

[1] https://injury.findlaw.com/product-liability/what-is-product...


Atlassian has such a pricing scheme. Pay x amount per year for the cloud version, x-x/10 for the self hosted license and half that amount yearly for updates and continued support. Of course you can still use the license without updates and support. The <10 user license is almost always $10 so that the entry bar is set low, other licenses are much more expensive (>100x) with price going down with numbers until you hit the datacenter versions which are priced differently. I think it's very flexible and covers just about every use case.


Which is why most companies do a mixed model. Pay an amount for a version, get one year of updates (or that specific version + it's updates), then pay to upgrade (and/or reup your year of support).


This is possibly the worst use of the term "pyramid scheme" I have ever seen used in print, and that's really saying something with how often it's abused nowadays.


Yet you left your entire argument up to our imagination.

I explained why I find the description fitting. You could at least entertain us with why "future users pay for your upgrades" does not fit in the context of one-time-paid "perpetual license" software beyond disagreeing with the phrase I chose to name the predicament.


It seems to me that there's one very obvious difference: once software is created, creating more copies of it is almost free. The reason pyramid schemes collapse is that they require an exponentially increasing amount of new deposits to keep up with the payments owed to existing depositors, and that's just not how software publishing works. So long as there's a sufficient stream of customers buying, it doesn't cost much more to keep everyone up to date than it does just the new customers, and if there isn't then forcing repurchases won't necessarily fix that.


But with the way that App Store economics work, you can't easily charge for upgrades but both iOS and Android have new versions yearly with new features that users expect you to implement.


IMO except for highly priced products, paying once for software does not entitle you to support unless it's the user forum/SO type. John Doe giving a company $50 three years ago does not give him the right to email people at the company asking for tech support.

Many many companies still allow this, but I think if you want support you should be paying a support fee (e.g. monthly subscription).


> that price is vastly out of proportion from the cost of providing the software

This is not how prices are set. They are set on the willingness and ability to pay. Water costs nothing to produce but if I have it all you will pay me everything you have.

For example if their main competitor went bust and not a single atom changed inside this company, they could charge you more.

Do they have a monopoly or is it hard to migrate? These are the conversations the people who set the price are having. They are not talking about people being upset if they still pay.


I disagree with the author that subscriptions are objectively and inherently the superior model for web monetization. An unsung virtue of the ad-driven web it's is inclusiveness and strong worldwide redistribution effects. Everybody sees the ads, however the actual value of a pair of eyeballs is widely variable, by orders of magnitude so. It's therefore profitable to make the content free and distribute it as far as possible, to have the best chance of catching high value visitors that covert to ad action and revenue.

The net effect is that large swaths of society and indeed the world get the internet services for free, subsidized by purchases made by richer westerners, purchases and services they themselves could never afford. This model works well with the economic structure of web publishing, where marginal cost of serving an existing page to a new customer is essentially zero - even for the obese, media rich pages the author is referring to.

Once you move to a flat fee, this massive redistribution ceases. There is a clearly defined model of customer, say, those living in the middle class of an OECD country, that is targeted to maximize revenue, and a paywall is put in place that excludes 95% of the rest of the world. These are people for which 9$ might represent a tenth of their wage, and who might not even have access to modern banking through which to purchase internet services.

The open web was created by hacker ethos, but paid for using ads; a flat tax against widely variable income is strongly inequalitarian and exclusionary.


> An unsung virtue of the ad-driven web it's is inclusiveness and strong worldwide redistribution effects. Everybody sees the ads, however the actual value of a pair of eyeballs is widely variable, by orders of magnitude so. It's therefore profitable to make the content free and distribute it as far as possible, to have the best chance of catching high value visitors that covert to ad action and revenue.

> Once you move to a flat fee, this massive redistribution ceases

I think this largely disregards the effects of targeting. A lot of the things (payday loans as the prime example) advertised to people less well off are reverse redistribution, exploiting the financial situation / needs of viewers.


Payday loans are an extreme case. I very much doubt that there enough such things to completely dilute the redistributive effect of ad funding.


Payday loans are extreme case because it’s the last option for a poor person. A poor persons usually has little family/friends or they are poor too. Banks won’t give them loans. If they are stuck in deep dark mud, the only way out is payday loan. Sure, some outright gamble their life and their should be some low against it. But paydays are taking huge risks in funding them, therefore their higher fees as insurance.


> Payday loans are extreme case because it’s the last option for a poor person.

This is a false dilemma. There are many options before succumbing to a payday loan. Depending on where you live, there are a myriad of housing assistance, energy assistance, medical bills assistance, and food assistance programs on the city, county, state, and federal levels. Heck, even bankruptcy can be better in some situations. It really does depend on the situation.

The other problem here is availability of information. Everyone is 100% aware of payday loans and the temporary relief it can provide you (advertising), not everyone is aware of the upwards of 20+ programs someone in need can participate in, and it can be exhausting to apply and follow up on everything. Again, the reason the payday loan industry is so successful is they are preying on human nature to take the quick and easy way, but to say they are some sort of last option is not true at all.


It's usually the last (legal) option for "straight cash". Most public assistance programs have some sort of condition to the assistance they provide.


> There is a clearly defined model of customer, say, those living in the middle class of an OECD country

And, of course, that must be the very individual who wants those "immersive experiences, well-designed pages with fonts, graphics, photos, and videos coming together into a compelling format."


> Once you move to a flat fee, this massive redistribution ceases.

No one is saying that the fee should be flat. There are ways of selling roughly the same service for different prices - just look at air travel.


Can you cite an example of such tiered subscriptions used by an important media outlet? Price discrimination is not always possible or efficient.


Maybe it's possible to create a sort of tiered system. The latest news and top stories are always free, but the detailed analysis and exposes (the stuff that usually wins awards) require a subscription. On the more local news level, maybe require a subscription to read the restaurant reviews or something.

I'm not going to pretend that this is the end all solution. But both the open web and journalism cannot survive in the present state. We have to adapt.


Gigaom tried that before, but it didn't work that well. Very few people care about the topic that they will purchase the analysis. Not enough for the business to be sustainable.

Seems like there is a market for deeper analysis done stratchery, the information and couple of others, but it barely sustains a few writers, hardly able to compete with the large scale newsrooms of WSJ, WaPo, NYT, ...


> Gigaom

The issue with your observations is that Gigaom isn't known widely outside of big tech. So I don't feel it's fair to compare their failure to the possibility of a mainstream outlet attempting this.


Agree, they weren't known outside of big tech.

My thinking is, that if they couldn't get it to work in a specific category, then it would be even harder to make it work in more general one.

In general, a very few people care about any topic enough to purchase deeper analysis of it. I'm not sure that this would work as a business model in general.


I am not sure why it is so fundamentally difficult for publications to understand what people want.

The issue many people, myself included, have with subscriptions are that you pay $x / month whether or not you read that month's product. And whether or not you read every article or just one. So for me, as a consumer, my "price per article" goes from small to literally infinity (pay but read zero articles).

Now the pay per article model works so much better. You can charge me to read a single article but I pay nothing if I read nothing. This is the model that blendle.com uses and my experience was that even though their "per article" price was much higher than I originally thought reasonable (9 cents to 50 cents) I was paying basically $50 a month for subscriptions to the publications that I read (WSJ, Economist, NYT, WaPo, etc) and with Blendle I end up putting maybe $15 or $25 per month into my Blendle wallet. So its half as expensive for me and I still get to read, advertising free, any article in those publications. Blendle's money back if its click bait policy is the clincher. When you read a lemon you get your money back.

I win (save money) they win (they get paid for their journalism).


One con of the pay per article is that it siphons money into the money making kinds of stories. The sports and celebrity pages can do a lot of funding for the slow grind investigations that are important for holding those in power accountable.

It’s not like an a la carte model couldn’t also fund profitless journalism, but I think it might push things even more in that direction.

I think they do understand what people want, but they have a healthy, eat your vegetables kind of take on things too.


I don't think this is right. Even if a site goes for a subscription model, it will still be obvious which pages people click the most on, and so they will have a strong incentive to increase sports and celebrity reporting to bolster their subscriber count. The exact same incentives are there with pay-by-page. You still have to charge enough for your writers to eat, and you have the exact same incentive to tell them to write clickbait.


There's no reason why a publication can't charge more for an in-depth piece. I'd gladly pay far more for a comprehensive exposé.


How will you know it's a comprehensive exposé? How will you evaluate whether an article is going to be worth the price?


> How will you know it's a comprehensive exposé?

How about before I purchase there's an excerpt and the number of words that lay ahead? I mean, it couldn't be that hard to distinguish comprehensive articles vs the norm.

> How will you evaluate whether an article is going to be worth the price?

I wouldn't know. And if it wasn't worth it, I probably wouldn't purchase a future piece from the same reporter. That said, there could be a review system. (Just brainstorming here)


This model already exists with those damned "click here to continue reading buttons". Just charge me a few pennies when I click that button and we're good. Give me a little browser based wallet that I can re-up with my "news" budget on a regular basis and I'm a happy paying customer.

Charge me $30/month to read your site at all (bloomberg) and you're never making a cent off of me again.


Blendle offers automated instant refunds. If the article is bad, refund it.


I think the new economy, some CEOs and CFOs will make terrible decisions, and lose their market share to those who provide the right price for the value, or understand what the value even is.


The same way you used to evaluate the dead tree news. You trust the brand and its editors.


or just read the other news paper's summary of it after an hour or two.


Actually I am more likely to pay for investigations than for gossip.


We're the minority.


I would think we would be the majority here though?

Edit: also, and this goes to the person upthread, even if mainstream media goes for gossip I'd still think we should make up a nice niche?


When I am paying by the article, I personally am much less likely to pay to see garbage stories.


I don't think that model will work, honestly. There's friction anytime you ask someone to spend anything, even if the price is de minimis.

Look what happens whenever a city adopts a $0.05 plastic bag tax. When Washington DC did it, plastic bag use dropped by 50% - 70%. I'd see people that just spent $30 bucks at the store with their arms overflowing with stuff rather than pay that extra nickel.

I'd expect prompting users to choose whether reading a story is worth $0.05 to them every time will cause them to read and engage significantly less.


And then you have those magical psychological effects at different price points. I remember when almost every piece of "shareware" was $20+ and most full "programs" were $100+. Now people balk at apps over $0.99 and even opt to have a ton of their personal information sent off to a stranger to avoid that price.

The tone of the engagement matters, too, because it works on psychological levels most people aren't aware of. It's essentially brainwashing. To me, "Buying" means assessing and confirming value, "Upgrading" means reassessing the value and how relevant the new features are to me, and "Renewing a subscription" means to keep the status quo and automatically remain up to date. Upgrade notifications feel like nagging, while subscription renewal notices are almost alarming.

Nag all you want because I can just use what I have now. Yay! I upgraded and now all the icons are in different spots. Maybe they added something interesting. I hope it still reads my old files.

End the subscription and who knows what happens. Yay! I renewed my subscription and now all my most precious files are no longer in danger of being wiped from existence. Subscribing sure saved my butt. I'm so glad I did!

Overall, though, I think the subscription model exists to take advantage of inattentive customers, which makes up the bulk of any user base. A person forgetting to cancel their subscription is as good as a new subscriber and there are all sorts of situations where that can happen to anyone. Hell, those are probably the same customers that didn't notice when a new version was released, so the company even makes up for missed upgrades. I have no real data to back that up, but it fits with a lot of personal observations.


> Now people balk at apps over $0.99 and even opt to have a ton of their personal information sent off to a stranger to avoid that price

Yes! This is extremely puzzling for me and I would love to know why it happens. I am mostly free from this and do not think about trying a $1 app any longer than I do about buying a cup of tea (and always pay for an ad-free version if I still using the app a week later).

However, I am in the minority: hearing this my friends roll their eyes "you are paying for an app you may not use long term? You must be rich. Look for a free app instead, man".


> Overall, though, I think the subscription model exists to take advantage of inattentive customers, which makes up the bulk of any user base.

This may be true for some services, but I don't think it's true of the most successful services. Think about Spotify and Netflix, most users are fully aware of their subscription.


UI is everything.

My purchase of <$2 apps in the Google Play store went up tremendously when I could do it with just a fingerprint read instead of a full password entry.

The amount of money I spend with Amazon's one-swipe checkout is obnoxious.

Ask me to give you my full address twice and manually enter a credit card, even if you have an item I really want? Nope, probably not doing it.


I feel terrible for all those companies which don’t analyze their shopping funnels. The simplest checkout experience should require the minimum friction. What ends up happening is that they want to collect ridiculous amount of customer data in the hopes they’ll use it some other day.

Those companies deserve to die.


> I'd expect prompting users to choose whether reading a story is worth $0.05 to them every time will cause them to read and engage significantly less.

The example that gives me a little bit of optimism in the long run is power: people don't really have a problem with the fact that their power bill is pay-per-use, and if it discourages them from unduly wasting power, all the better.

But the problem you describe is still significant: people are _already_ used to that dynamic for electricity, and it's not clear to me how to get over the hump where they'd treat micro transactions for publishing in the way you describe. Most people aren't remotely rational enough to realize on their own that stressing over each minuscule payment has a cost of its own and coming up with a better strategy for handling it. (In the electricity example, this is the difference between 1) calculating the power usage of each device in your house and considering whether you want to pay a few cents before flicking that light switch or 2) conserve in common sense ways and adjust if necessary based on your monthly bill.)

> When Washington DC did it, plastic bag use dropped by 50% - 70%. I'd see people that just spent $30 bucks at the store with their arms overflowing with stuff rather than pay that extra nickel.

Case in point... This may be one of the stupidest things I've ever heard. My city has had a ten cent bag tax for a long time now, and the way everyone reacts is 1) carry it in your hand if it's one or two small things, 2) pay a freaking dime if you have too much stuff and be slightly more likely to remember your reusable bag next time.


Regarding bags, that's a strange reaction given that everywhere else I've heard of that introduced a bag tax has seen usage drop dramatically. It's not the price - clearly most people can afford what they charge - it's the psychology that makes you stop and think whether you really need a single use bag for what you've bought.


Oh I completely agree. It's extremely effective as a reminder and has been extremely effective in my city. I think it's great example of damn near Pareto-efficient govt policy.

But when I _do_ forget my reusable bag for whatever reason and have an unwieldy amount of stuff to carry, it would be beyond idiotic to ride that psychological effect all the way into the absurdity of stuffing my arms full of thing (I gather from the original comment I responded to that he wasn't talking about carrying an item or three).


Electricity is different. The charge is decoupled from point of use. When you flip a light switch, it doesn't visibly and immediately bill you 2¢.

The bag tax, pay per article, etc. do.


Do you mean that the usage and the monthly bill are separated in time? I don't see why the pay per article couldn't work the same way. The bag tax example was ludicrous for a different reason: namely that carrying multiple loads in your arms is more than worth five cents for all but the absolutely poorest Americans.


It would work if the model used preloaded crypto payments where all you had to do is see how many tokens something costs and have them deducted automatically by clicking the article read button.


If you could click a button that says "5¢ to Read" and have it work immediately, I think the problem would be solved. But this would either require some sort of browser-based wallet or a wider adoption of cryptocurrency.


That's not a great example. You can buy your own plastic bags for 1 cent a piece on amazon.


> I don't think that model will work, honestly. There's friction anytime you ask someone to spend anything, even if the price is de minimis.

The price is so low that there is little friction. You also get a full refund if you are disappointed, further reducing friction.

Furthermore you don't pay every time but you pay from an account with Blendle.


Regarding bag tax, I have trouble believing this is more than your own anecdotal observations, do you have any sources to back up that claim? Most cities in Europe charge a lot more than 0.05 per bag (Austrian supermarkets generally charge between 0.25-1€) yet most people just bring their own. I buy the more expensive variant (cloth material) which survive about a year.


> which survive about a year

What are you doing with those? I have one reusable bag which is 11 years old now. I just throw it in the laundry about once a year and it's as good as new.


I use them for everything... they often end up as bags for recyclables (e.g. bottles, metal with sharp edges, paper) so they get chewed up fairly fast. Even if I only use them for exclusively shopping, I go 1-3x per week (~100 excursions/year) and when it's warm we throw a lot of BBQ parties so some of those trips are overloaded with heavy stuff which ends up cutting corners in the sides.


There has been a LOT of effort put behind micro transactions for publishing, from companies that have all the resources and incentive in the world, like Google. The market simply doesn't want it. The average consumer isn't remotely rational enough to amortize a subscription cost and compare it to a unit cost. The way they process the incentives of a subscription is more like: "once you've reached the threshold where you consider the subscription worth it, completely forget about the fact that you're paying it for the purposes of assessing costs". Micro-transactions, even for tiny unit prices, feel like a cost upon every use.

You or I may prefer the microtransaction model to free with ads or subscription-based, but I suspect there's a lot about the market that we'd prefer was different, and that's because we're not typical of the market.


> There has been a LOT of effort put behind micro transactions for publishing, from companies that have all the resources and incentive in the world, like Google.

I feel I used to follow Google quite closely before and I cannot remember seing any hints of this.

My feeling has rather been that any form for paying has been looked at as second class compared to ads at that company.

Youtube Red still isn't available here and I haven't heard a thing about the idea they had last year that we could pay to avoid ads.

Do you have any pointers?


Eep, I may have inadvertently been referring to information about internal trials. Suffice it to say that a public offering isn't the first step to trying out a product direction, nor is it the only way to get feedback from the market (given that a tried and failed public product incurs substantial costs).

EDIT: thanks to the downthread comment, I see that the pilot I was thinking of apparently became Contributor. This is pretty much exactly what many in this thread are talking about, with the significant difference being that there are few participating sites, and the ones on there are generally targeted at the kinds of demographics who care an unusual amount about avoiding ads. The reason there's barely any buy-in on the content provider side is because most sites know that their readers wouldn't like it.


They tried several variations for Google Contributor, each less appealing than the last.

More recently they introduced Subscribe With Google.


I never got the chance to try.

Would anyone care to describe why it wasn't great?

(Short summary of why I think it should be great: I want to support the sites and blogs I read. I don't want ads as they are still next to useless.)


Conceptually it's exactly what you'd want, but sites had to opt-in to "some weird experiment" instead of Google rolling upgrading their adsense TOS for a year, and then rolling this out on all sites that use adsense.

The reasons it's stuck in infancy, then, is the list of sites which support it which is here: https://support.google.com/contributor/answer/7324995

(Linked to from https://contributor.google.com/ )

There are about two dozen sites, and even then the only one I even recognize is tvtropes.


From looking at it, it seems like it's active only on a really tiny number of sites.


If I understand you correctly that means you'd pay but get ads anyway on most pages?

That would explain why it didn't succeed.

In fact it would seem like it was rigged to fail which wouldn't surprise me as both Google and Facebook seems to prefer ad revenue over payments.


> both Google and Facebook seems to prefer ad revenue over payments.

This is exactly the kind of conspiracy-theory mindset I was talking about in my upthread comment. What reason could they have for preferring ads, given the extra risks (esp legislative) and PR issues associated with it?

As I said, Google (I can't personally speak to Facebook) has put effort behind getting micropayments off the ground in a couple different formats, but there're substantial hurdles and substantial pushback on the part of publishers. The fact that they're not jeopardizing existing revenue by forcing pubs to do things they don't want to doesn't mean that they prefer advertising revenue per se.


Thanks for your reply. It was really interesting.

> This is exactly the kind of conspiracy-theory mindset I was talking about in my upthread comment.

This is however unneccessary IMO. Im referring to observed behaviour. I might be wrong but calling it a conspiracy-theory mindset doesn't help.

> What reason could they have for preferring ads, given the extra risks (esp legislative) and PR issues associated with it?

I don't know but if I had to guess Googles infrastructure and organization is heavily optimized for it.

> As I said, Google (I can't personally speak to Facebook) has put effort behind getting micropayments off the ground in a couple different formats, but there're substantial hurdles and substantial pushback on the part of publishers.

Ok, so now we are finally talking.

So the reason I couldn't "buy the ad spots" and sponsor writers of tech blogs (and here I'm referring to personal blogs, not news outlets dressed up as one) was because "publishers"?

Do we really think blog owners with google ads would complain if parts of their revenue came from users who hadn't had to suffer ads?

I can see one issue here and that is a lot of sites would probably try double dipping by trying to install a second ad network.

I'm honest but a bit annoyed here: I guess it is because Google used to be focused on creating good products for me but now it is about whatever publishers want.

Edit: also this doesn't explain Google's hesitation to introduce Youtube red, does it? Or are publishers also active in deciding what Google does on their own properties too?


This is my issue with most subscriptions too. The price has to be set based on the average use, which makes it really expensive for the infrequent user (and ultimately this means less conversions, yet nobody seems to care about this?!).

I've had the same gripe with games for years. I stopped paying for Xbox live and World of Warcraft because they're the same - if I only played for a few hours in a month, I've paid over-the-odds. I can't predict in a given month how likely I am to have how many hours, so I end up paying them £0. They could get more money out of me if they had a better PAYG or tiering option.


Obviously (in these cases) there are market segments that favor all you can eat subscriptions and those that favor à la carte. It makes sense that for most things the heavy users get the sub and the light users get to pay for what they use. However I thought of a counter example. Spotify. I would normally be a light user of music. I had some CDs in the 90s but lost interest in the whole thing by the time I graduated Uni. However it’s still nice to listen to some music sometimes. However I couldn’t imagine being able to buy all the singles I listen to in a month for less than €9.

That’s the secret. Price your subs so it’s a better offer for the lightest of users. Not hard in the music business that was ripe for disruption.

And I think that’s the message in the article. Subs themselves are not the problem , but the way they are priced . (Although the fact that he spends so much money on subs kind of negates his argument. It seems like people like him are happy to pay which reinforces the soundness of the business case).

Incidentally I subscribe to ms office even though I would never have paid a one off fee for it. I think it’s cheap enough to justify its value. I also subscribe to Netflix but should really cancel. In europe there is not much content there. When I first got it i watched maybe 4 or 5 interesting documentaries now I never see anything there worth watching. I might unsubscribe after my daughter finishes binging gravity falls. (She’s not a big user either we both find YouTube more interesting and relevant than European Netflix)


I tend to prefer subscriptions for things where what I'm consuming is somewhat throwaway; so things like TV, films, books (things I'd never want to revisit/rewatch). I don't prefer it for things I might like music though. Some years ago, I ripped all my CDs (yeah, it was a lot of effort) and said I'd spend up to £10/month on music rather than a Spotify sub. I don't spend anything like that, but still tend to pick up all the new music I like. At any point I could stop buying new music and still having a big library, so I think it's worked out well.

That said, if Google Play Music Unlimited was either half the price (£5/mo) or was shareable with my wife for the current price, I'd probably have a different opinion!


Subscriptions usually work better when the variety of content/product offered is big. Amazon, Netflix, Spotify, NY Times; these companies offer a lot of content from a lot of producers. In contrast, most media subscriptions offer you a few articles per week that is worth of reading. The rest is usually written by people who are not necessarily more knowledgeable about the topic than their readers but only have the skill/patience of writing an article about them.


This is one of the underappreciated benefits of ads: infrequent or freeloading users were subsidized by the users that converted. Every day you are being subsidized by users that don't use adblockers. Eventually this will end and you'll be left with no option but to complain about spending money, but what did anyone expect?

Free shit forever?


> Every day you are being subsidized by users that don't use adblockers

I guess I'm a subsidiser; I don't use an ad blocker (for many reasons). I'm also slightly of the opinion that people using ad-blockers have made things worse for those that don't :(

I don't mind ads - I don't even mind advertises tracking some things to give me more relevant ads (heck, I'd tell them what I like to get more relevant ads).. I do mind obtrusive and noisy ads, and the security risks that tend to come with them (and other third party content) being slapped on every site with no thought though; and for some content I would pay to a reasonable fee to remove them.


This can be relative, in some cases at least. My go-to notes app is Bear and they charge EUR14/Year. For me that's a decent price to keep the software existing in the long run.


For some things I prefer the subscription model because of the incentives it creates, every article I read or day that I go to a gym lowers the overall cost-per-visit. With a per-article or per-visit model, I would be disincentivized to read and go to the gym. It also frees me from repeatedly making the same decision every day, do I value $1 more the content of this article? Do I value $10 more than going to the gym right now?

For me the nice thing about blendle is cheap access to several sources, if they have a prepaid plan that charges monthly at $10 for 60 articles (16c/article), I would do that.

I think it depends a lot on if you experience journalism as more similar to a gym (exercise for your brain) or netflix/hulu (entertainment).


Here’s the problem with paying per article read: The vast majority of people likely don’t want to read articles so much as they want to say, “I subscribe to The NY Times.”

Netflix released data showing that people added documentaries and art house movies to their queues but never watched them. Instead they watched the same action movies and comedies over and over.

It’s the same reason as why gyms charge per month not per visit. What people say they do and what they actually do is barely connected at all.


That seems counter to what makes moviepass so successful. I pay a fixed monthly cost, and now the incremental cost of each movie is $0. Decoupling the consumption from the payment changes how I think about going to see a movie. It seems like consumers may prefer this model, at least with regards to movies in theaters (moviepass), movies and tv at home (netflix), and music (spotify).


Moviepass is cratering. Why would you say they are successful? The are net negative on a per customer basis. They lost $150M last quarter.

Their only positive income is investment rounds. Negative return on investment.

It’s like subsidizing your company with credit cards. And having a business model of “apply for new credit cards”


Fair enough. The comment I was replying to was trying to make a point that consumers don't like a la cart models, so I think the consumer side of moviepass was the pertinent feature (they're wildly successful in terms of people loving it). It may suck for moviepass's finances, but as a consumer it's great and the $0 incremental cost has changed how I think about going to the movies. You could argue that the bulk of that happiness is that I'm just happy I'm paying less, which is hard to introspect. In that regard, maybe a profitable biz like netflix is a better example.

But then I realize that artists are complaining about getting screwed by spotify, studios are jacking up prices on netflix, and even services like classpass are changing. I wonder how many (if any?) of these subscription a la cart businesses have actually reached equilibrium.


You have to question a business model which only turns a profit when customers are paying for something they don't need. Unless they can negotiate favourable deals their only path to profitability is delivering no value to a high percentage of subscribers.


Why do VC's invest in startups with large userbases but no revenue streams?


On the flip side, sometimes to a service's detriment. I think this model works well for MoviePass, Netflix, Spotify, but MasterClass recently shifted to an all-you-can-eat subscription model (before you paid per class), and even though the service is the same and the price is cheaper (for me), my interaction with the service suffered. Before, I'd carefully carve out time for a MasterClass I was interested in, knowing it was a big commitment in time and dollars. Now I can just dip in and out to anything on offer, and that's exactly what I've done. My engagement has gone way down because I'm not committed to an individual class in the same way.


I've had a subscription to PluralSight off an on for years, but I recently started paying for one off videos from Udemy. I think I like that model better.


Most people would complain at paying more than 5% for reading 5% or the articles though, and the exact pay for what you use model doesn't cover any costs that are fixed or otherwise not equally spread over each item. While this doesn't count for a fair number of individuals, people as a unit will neither want to subsidise everyone else nor want to pay the fixed costs when they use very little (why should I pay 1x for a unit when it is 2x for 4?). You can present it as a discount for bulk, but only to an extent.

> The issue many people, myself included, ...

> my "price per article" goes from small to literally infinity

This is a problem for the producers too if they try a pay-per-unit model instead: their income could waiver unpredictably between more than enough and literally negative (not meeting the production costs). Either way, someone is gambling.

> Blendle's money back if its click bait policy is the clincher.

That sounds like something I'll have to investigate. Thanks for the pointer.


Blendle looks awesome, thanks!

It's worth it to me to avoid managing dozens of separate logins for every site.


”I am not sure why it is so fundamentally difficult for publications to understand what people want”

Why do you think they don’t understand? AFAIK, Blendle’s business model (even at those prices you think are too high) hasn’t proven viable yet.


I love the idea of blendle and i keep trying to use it, but unfortunately they don't make it easy to find articles.

You can scroll through their list of recommended articles, but if you already know the article you want to read (if, for instance, i find a WSJ article on HN that i want to read) there's no easy way to pay for that article on blendle. They need a tool that lets me paste in a canonical article URL and get the corresponding article on Blendle.


The problem with individual access purchase is that (usually) I don't know if an article was worth reading until I have read it. Not every issue of The Atlantic or the New Yorker attracts my attention but enough go them do so so I have a subscription.


We do the same with app subscriptions. I may go a month or 2 not using an app. It's always made me question the subscription model. There are times I won't subscribe where as I would have purchased the app for a one time fee.


People call this "nickel and diming" they hate it.


Have you tried Blendle? It's pay per story and has all of the major paywalled news sources.

It also allows you to get a refund after reading an article if you think it was clickbait.

Articles are $0.09-0.50 in my experience.


How do they win if they end up making less money? What you are paying for is journalists doing research every month to produce those articles so you could access them on demand. If you want that on demand access you need to pay them for the work they do every month not the work they do one off.


They win because they make more money.

One of the challenges is that if you look at this as a single consumer / single producer model it is very hard to see the economics. That is why internet advertising is also hard to see sometimes. Nearly everyone I know tells me "How do they make any money on internet ads? I never click on them." And for lots of people that is true, but for another population it is not true. And when you look at page views as a 'population' of say a million different people, and 1% of them, or 10,000 of them click on an advertisement that pays $0.10 per click, that is $1,000 of revenue from that one article. And if the marginal cost to host a single article on a web site is $1 per month, there is tremendous leverage there.

So this model insures that nearly everybody that reads and article has paid a small amount. This is more reliable income than Internet Ads even with 99% of the readers not clicking. And the article lives forever, and as we see on this web site some articles get cycled through popularity again and again every couple of years. People who have blog sites and track metrics see this effect when someone puts them on Reddit (for example).

A static article page can service a lot of page views with very little hardware. Nginx on a current server can serve the same article up at 50,000 page views per second if there is enough network bandwidth and the article is on an SSD. Hosting costs go up when you add a bunch of dynamic content but much of that can be hosted on CDNs and distributed to the edge. Done with any mount of care and planning and it costs little to host material on the web.


>They win because they make more money.

You have no data to back any of your hand wavy assertions. You are not smarter than the people that decide the business model for these publications. People are not willing to pay 10 or 20 cents to read articles that they clicked on a whim. We already know this from the app economy.


Actually I have quite a bit of experience around this. I've been working on understanding the economics of information since the mid 90's when I helped start an online web magazine about golf of all things. With the help of some grad students at Berkeley's Haas School of business we came up with the core mechanisms about how information can gain value and how it can lose that value. Also a number of ways to capture that value without destroying it in the process. The marketing person from that web property went on to Apple where they instituted the 99 cents per song music model that came to dominate music sales. The arguments against are familiar, "We sell an album not a song because those songs that aren't hits won't support their production costs.", "All songs will be tailored to sales and music quality will suffer.", "Labels (and by trickle down Artists) will make less because even buying 3 songs is less than they would get buying one $15 album." Instead the music industry flourished in the new system and more people got to experience more music more easily than ever before.

It isn't a question of smart or not smart, it is understanding that the economics of goods models we developed during the industrial revolution are not directly translatable to the economics of information.

I've been a fan of Blendle from the start because based on my research to date, I knew that if they could be operationally efficient enough, they would be able to facilitate per article transactions in an iTunes like model. And if they could do that it would have a larger impact than iTunes did on music. They continue to hum along and I continue to use them for that.

The "App" market is interesting because as I characterized information, Apps don't qualify, rather they contain algorithms. Because of that, their value is created through novelty rather than being intrinsic.


I think the idea is instead of having 1 user pay you $30 a month, you have 10 users (or more) paying you $3 a month, you end up with a net win (even at equivalent of $30 a month of revenue because now you've had more eyeballs).

The problem is most publishers still don't necessarily believe this model or think it'll work, or think it's too risky. Blendle was able to do it because they started their own platform and essentially required little work from the publishers themselves to integrate (Blendle devs did most of the work to import the content, publishers just had to agree), and the Blendle solution doesn't "rock the boat" for these publishers, i.e. doesn't change existing users on their web site's behaviors.


> I think the idea is instead of having 1 user pay you $30 a month, you have 10 users (or more) paying you $3 a month, you end up with a net win

Intuitively, I believe it's much easier to find one person to pay you $30 a month for quality journalism than to find 10 people to pay $3 a month.

Neither of us have data to back our assertions but my argument is that the people that care about and read quality journalism are well off people and the marginal cost of paying $10 or $30 a month is not significant for them.

>Blendle was able to do it because they started their own platform and essentially required little work from the publishers themselves to integrate

I've never heard of blendle until reading the comments in this topic but just as a comparison, the WSJ has 1,270,000 digital subscribers paying $45 a month. Blendle has 550,000 users.


> Today’s consumers though have significantly higher standards than the original users of the web. Consumers want immersive experiences, well-designed pages with fonts, graphics, photos, and videos coming together into a compelling format.

Citation needed. This comes up quite often, and people like to assume they know what users want all the time. But is there actual, scientific evidence that, given the same content, a plain HTML+CSS web page that's not interactive but well put together is less compelling to users than a JS-heavy, interactive, overengineered, ad-ridden, tracker-infested and bloated one? Moreover, where do we get the backing evidence for the currently-popular aesthetic choices other than the subjective taste of designers themselves?


There are hundreds (thousands?) of commercial content-heavy websites that continually track engagement metrics and A/B test design differences all the time, and virtually every single one of them has chosen to bet their collective livelihoods on richer and more interactive media.


A/B testing is a form of markov-chain-monte-carlo experimentation that makes certain assumptions about the landscape it is trying to find the maximum likelihood in. Specifically, it makes the assumption of monotonicity of the likelihood or that the lack of monotonicity is of the same scale as the changes they are likely to make. A/B testing cannot break out of a local maximum of the likelihood function if the assumptions are incorrect.

A complete rewrite of the application from media heavy to plain is far smaller than the typical stepsize used in A/B testing and has some temporal effects on top of it.


Sure, but you’re implying something super weird, namely that there’s a global maximum of engagement at the “text and CSS” extreme end of the spectrum, but as soon as you add any multimedia at all, even a single img tag, there’s a discontinuous drop and then the metrics improve the more and more you add even more multimedia.


I don't think I am saying that. I am saying that the radius of curvature of a peak is potentially greater than the typical step size used in A/B testing. No discontinuity is needed, the landscape could be completely smooth.

I'm not suggesting that the extreme of text + css only is what epitomizes a good minimalist page either. I'm just pointing out that it is absolutely not a given that A/B testing has shown that the global maxima is not near it.


The article isn’t merely arguing that users prefer rich content, other things being equal. It is arguing that users prefer paywalled rich content to free plain content. This is not the kind of thing typically measured by A/B testing.


Well, they say they researched it: "Yet, all of our research shows people want high-definition images with their stories, instant loading of articles on the site, and interactivity."

They understand how much more expensive an image and JS heavy site is to develop and host, so they must have good reason to go through the trouble?


While that sounds reasonable, I wouldn't bet on it. I have seen too many inane bloat that was implemented simply because the designer/developer/project manager thought it was a cool thing to have or because they read it on some growth-hack thoughtpiece somewhere.


Indeed, that's all too common. It could also be a fluid thing. Huge images and lots of interactivity are in now, but it'll go too far (arguably has) and people may want to swing the pendulum back.


Very often institutions decide stupidly, when the decision is made by people that are not domain experts. Also, numbers may lie. If they did not study the same content with interactive and plain presentation, for example. I recall an article on a murder in Iceland on BBC IIRC, it was overtly interactive, every movement on the touch pad causing unpredictable changes to the page, but the content was so interesting that I put up with it.


Without being able to see what research they actually did/scruitinize their methodology, I don't find the claim that they checked very compelling. Humans are crazy-hard to study -- research that's not even peer reviewed is basically worthless.


This struck me as an interesting statement too. Especially with "thin" versions of site surfacing, for example thin.npr.org, it seems like people are more accepting of the trade of loading gifs and high Def images for speed.


Along the same lines, the article seems to be comparing the cost of serving plain text in 2001 to serving media in 2018. Even simple web hosting used to be much more expensive and difficult to set up.


Designers design for other designers. They are barely aware of users, and wouldn’t care even if they were.


This is a ridiculous generalization. There are good designers and bad designers in the world. The fact that I have 20 apps pinned to my task bar in Windows that I find enjoyable to use on a daily basis is proof that some designers are capable of making things that their users like to use.


“Consumers want immersive experiences, well-designed pages with fonts, graphics, photos, and videos coming together into a compelling format.”

Oh come on, NO I do not want that! One of the biggest problems with ads, news sites and other stuff is that almost any of these “experiences”, especially with video, are a drain on data plans and implemented terribly. Give me an article. If that article has some simple images and plain text as ads, that would be fine. The issue is that instead, sites take way too many liberties and turn it into a pop-up, slide-out, scripted mess that destroys the whole “experience” of reading an article.

And somebody should tell web sites that it used to cost 25 cents for an ENTIRE daily newspaper (that still contained ads), which can’t be more than a few bucks a month. If your subscription is ANY more than a couple of bucks, it will fail.


Ok, YOU do not want that, but who's to say the majority of users don't want that? HN readers most likely don't represent their typical users.


Yes, this made me laugh as the first thing I did when I got to that page was was switch to Reader view.


Yeah, not so much what consumers want as what succeeds on social media.


If people don't want it, why does it succeed on social media, or anywhere at all?


Because we count success as someone clicked on the article at all as opposed to how they used it. People talk about the studies and A/B testing done to support the claims of rich media being all the rage, but how easy would it be for any of these studies to miss the forest for a tree?


that's like saying roads are successful because many people are driving on them.


A standard for micropayment for content needs to evolve. Our relationships to publishers have changed substantially. I would be willing to pay per read from sources like The Guardian, New York Times, The Economist, etc, but I am not frequent enough to want to subscribe. For the citizen who wants to get their information from different sources across the globe and political spectrum, it gets unreasonable to expect subscriptions.

While something like Netflix/Spotify would be nice from a user/consumer perspective, there is both the difficulty of gathering everyone under one platform and the risks of having a single (or a few) number of brokers of news across the board.


We have a local news website that I think has a realistic model. When you view an article with an ad-blocker it shows you a dialog with a variety of options:

1. Whitelist the site

2. "Nah, journalists should go hungry" - this dismisses the popup and lets you read the article with your blocker intact

3. 5c - read the article ad-free

4. 10c - 1 hour of no-ads

5. 30c - 1 day of no-ads

I've converted to US cents, but even in local currency think these prices are extremely reasonable, and I'd love to see more sites offer similar rates


Does the service require you to maintain a wallet with them? As in, you deposit money and transactions are drawn from your deposit? Otherwise, I can't see how accepting such a low amount per transaction could be feasible.


This is what Blendle offers according to u/ChuckMcM, price per article decided by publisher, ranges from 9c to $1.99, average 25c.


IMHO, cryptocurrencies like Nano offer a great solution to these micro-payments use cases.

(Everytime I talk about cryptocurrencies on HN, I get downvoted without any proper response. So bring it on! ;))


The fact that "micropayments" weren't even mentioned in this article leads me to dismiss it.

There still doesn't seem to be a "Twitter of Micropayments" yet.

Gratipay shut down, (RIP) https://gratipay.news/the-end-cbfba8f50981?gi=54bc4ed25327

Patreon takes a percentage, which, to me, seems unjustifiable.


You suggest that the lack of even mentioning micropayments leads you to dismiss the article.

But then you point out that there is no viable micropayments platform. Doesn't seem like there's much to mention beyond "yup, still doesn't exist."


> But then you point out that there is no viable micropayments platform. Doesn't seem like there's much to mention beyond "yup, still doesn't exist."

Sure there is: "Micropayments are fundamentally infeasible".

Which is to say, payments are trivial to do. There have been dozens and dozens of startups doing online payments in various schemes since the beginning of the internet. But the fraud problem is not solvable on that kind of scale. Batching payments such that you buy one "thing" for at least a few dollars gives some level of assurance that one human being looked at the transaction and that the seller gave enough thought to be sure it was worth selling as a unit.

That all falls apart when you get to "one article" scale. You want this to be a purchase that the user doesn't even thing about (because seriously if I have to stop and think whether I want to pay $0.13 to read an article the answer is "NO"). But without that promise of thought it becomes impossible to reasonably authenticate a transaction. Users will be absolutely flooded with fraud schemes tricking them into OKing these tiny things.

This is what killed ad-supported platforms too.


So how should Patreon pay for their staff, infrastructure, and other costs if taking a percentage is unjustifiable?


They could add up all their expenses, divide by the number of users, and charge that?

My point is they should charge in proportion to the service/value they provide, not in proportion to the size of donation/patronage.

It doesn't cost them twice as much to process a donation twice as large, so: "unjustifiable".

Can you justify that? (Not rationalize it, justify it?)


Yes, it's justifiable.

Larger donations have a higher risk of fraud and chargebacks, so on average it will cost Patreon more to handle this. Additionally, it's not uncommon for credit card companies to charge a fee, even if Patreon wins the chargeback request. If a user donates $10 to a specific creator and initiates a chargeback, who should end up paying the chargeback fee and the donation amount (if the chargeback is successfull?)

You can't charge the user who initiated the chargeback, especially if they were successful. The only thing you can really do is ban them from the service in the future. So, do you take those fees from the creators who received the donation, or do you spread the cost among other creators/donors?

You can't realistically charge the donors. If I were to go to Patreon to try and give someone $5 but was told, thanks for donating, but we're going to charge you an extra $2 because that's the average cost per donor to provide the service, develop new products, advertise, etc., I'm not going to donate. Most people won't.

So do you charge the creators? Let's say the cost per creator is $20/month. If a creator only earns $10, do they then actually owe $10? What creator is going to use the service if they might end up owing money?

The answer, of course, is you figure out the average percentage of a transaction you need to take. You do this because it provides both donors and creators clear information on how much money goes to the creator, what goes to the payment processor/credit card provider, and what percentage goes to Patreon.

But I mean, if you really think that's not a good justification, why not start your own competing option with a business model you think is more fair.


> Take my colleague Connie Loizos’ article from yesterday reporting on a new venture fund. The text itself is about 3.5 kilobytes uncompressed, but the total payload of the page if nothing is cached is more than 10 MB, or more than 3000x the data usage of the actual text itself. This pattern has become so common that it has been called the website obesity crisis. Yet, all of our research shows people want high-definition images with their stories, instant loading of articles on the site, and interactivity. Those features have to be paid somehow, begetting us the advertising and subscription models we see today.

It was kindof upsetting to read this after having switched the article into Firefox's reader mode, because the page was completely unusable.

If you want to talk about consumers' wallets not existing in a vacuum: if your 3.5 KB article is sending me 10 megs of crap, then your mobile users' carriers are charging them more than the advertizers are paying you.

There are some real challenges in figuring out how to fund journalism, but if bandwidth is one of them you're doing something very wrong.


There are glaring optimization issues.

Over 6MB of those 10MB is just one bloated photo [1]. It can be compressed down to 1-2MB. Moreover, if it was a proper responsive image, it would not be larger than 100-200 KB for most readers because a good JPEG compressor can pull 2 bits per pixel [2].

Ironically, image optimization apps don't get that much coverage.

[1] https://techcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/vikbajaj20...

[2] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.04416.pdf


I just took that image (which is 3300 x 2200), resized it to 50% and got 1.05 MiB, instead of 5.85. Threw it through JPEGMini (a paid product, mind you) and got 729 KiB.

Guetzli is nice, but it's slow as balls. JPEGMini is a decent alternative. (I'm a happy customer of JPEGMini, BTW. No other affiliations.)


I'm making something in between [1].

That image is a good example for any perceptual encoder. At 50% size it's 600KB (487KB with current master), and there's still a lot to be unhappy about, e.g. a hidpi image like that can be compressed a lot harder.

[1] https://getoptimage.com


I use firefox on mobile for ad-blocking and reader mode. Sometimes I get frustrated when firefox gets unstable and try chrome, but the lack of a proper reader mode and no way to disable ads makes half the internet completely unusable. I find it hard to believe that average chrome using consumers are doing anything more than tolerating the current state of the web.


Mobile users and rural satellite users like me. I was also struck by:

> We didn’t need paywalls on the early web because we focused on plain text from other users. Plain text is easier to produce, lowering the friction for people to contribute, and it’s also cheaper to store and transmit, lowering the cost of bandwidth.

I still want plain text, and I think there must be others like me — we just want to read what they have to say, which is more immersive than the ten megabytes of dreck they sent me could possibly be.


I'm surprised that nobody mentioned foreigners or children.

As an immigrant, it's not possible for me to get a credit card, only a debit card. When I was under 18, it was also very difficult to do online shopping (I just made Christmas & birthday lists and asked my parents to eBay things for me then).

Every time I change country, which has happened 13 times and counting, I lose access to whatever services I had enjoyed. Subscriptions have really messed me up. For example, my bank accounts at UBS and the Swiss Post Office started charging me monthly fees after age 21. I didn't know, until my parents got nasty letters to their address telling me I was overdrawn. I hadn't used the accounts for 3 years, and when I left, they were free, so I didn't think to close the accounts. I had to pay to bring the account above zero just so I could close it. Not to mention phone subscriptions, Internet bills, rent, etc.

The lack of a stable home means I can't subscribe to Spotify. This pushes me towards the few pre-paid models that are left. I have MP3s that work offline with no need for cellular data. When I finally do get a chance to pay (e.g. a band I like is playing a show on the other side of the country), I make a huge effort to go there, buy their CDs, t-shirts, and everything else so I can support them - because that might be the only chance I get to pay them. Having been to over 300 concerts, I actually think I'm a bigger fan than most passive consumers, even though I'm excluded from the business model that record companies like. I feel like artists make more money from touring than ads/subscriptions, but I have no data to support that feeling. If there were a way to support journalists/programmers like touring bands, I think that could provide an alternative source of revenue.


You can get pre-paid/secured credit cards in a lot of countries (especially if Capital One operate there). Unless you're moving every 6 months, you should have enough credit history to land one CC with a tiny limit: then you set up automatic payments and let it mature.

May I suggest setting up a project board when you move with stuff like 'update address for <SERVICE X>' & clone all the issues when you move? Helps to avoid accounts getting closed for missed payments at least.


The subscription craze for utility apps as mentioned in the post is especially frustrating. I'm not talking about apps that need to maintain a infrastructure, but just normal apps that really should not be subscription based.

I get it, monthly subscription is a constant flow of money which makes things more predictable (and more profitable), but these things add up for the user.

Here are some apps on my phone that changed to a subscription model

- Timepage: Really nice calendar from Moleskine

- Day One: A journaling app

- Ulysses: Mentioned in the article

- Spendee: Budgeting app

Some other subscription apps:

- Moleskine actions: A todo list from Moleskine

- Carrot weather: Really cool weather app that already costs a steep $5 (for a weather app), but still has a in-app subscription for extra stuff (arguably not needed but still)

- CamScanner: Usable on free tier, but watermarks scanned PDFs. Why does this need a monthly subscription? Bought ScanBot for $5 instead.

- Bear: Note taking app

There is absolutely no reason why a calendar or a journaling app should have a monthly subscription.

I am glad that I went in early on apps like Day One and Timepage and got a lifetime subscription out of it, but if it wasn't for this, these apps would have been off my phone already.

It's odd that I am starting to get happy when a new major version of an app (like OmniFocus) gets announced and it's just a one time price instead of a subscription.


I wish I could just pay $x/mo for unlimited access to all media. It would get distributed to content creators proportionally based on my time using websites, music, videos, and games. No ads or subscriptions.

I can't imagine how such a system would be implemented though. And I'm sure there would be new unintended consequences with such an incentive structure. But something like that would be nice!


What you're describing sounds similar to Basic Attention Token [1] which is used by Brave browser [2].

[1] https://basicattentiontoken.org/

[2] https://brave.com/


If the intro video is to be believed, that seems like a terrible idea in so many ways. The video explains it like "you view ads, your browser privately tracks whether you watched them, and awards the website and the user with BATs". So while we now have middlemen in the form of ad networks, with BATs we have an additional one to convert that currency into your local currency. Additionally, the ad network will have to believe the browser that the user actually viewed ads at all (DRM all over again). And what blockchain has to do with this is, as always, unexplained.


Right now, earning BAT by watching ads is not yet implemented. After you use up the free 10 BAT you get on first install, you have to buy more to keep paying the sites you visit (this is reasonably frictionless at the moment, and is likely to get more so). I assume there aren't many people right now that buy BAT to send into the Brave wallet (though I do, and know of others that do), but it's still early days.

The part of their proposal I would suggest fixating on is the fact that if you make deposits into your Brave wallet, you get to block ads (right now, ads are blocked regardless), and publishers will be able to turn off their anti-ad-blocking measures if they see you're using Brave, since you'll be providing them with revenue. The hope is that in the future, paywall sites like WSJ may allow you to bypass their paywall if they can verify that you're using Brave.

There is a lot of uncertainty right now about how the whole ad system will work, because the team is focusing on making the browser robust enough so it can compete with FF and Chrome. But in the meantime, they're also getting useful information about what real users and publishers are actually keen on.

I suspect that the more obvious flaws, like the ones you pointed out, will be accounted for once the system is fleshed out. They have not shied away from moving away from their original proposal to more practical approaches.

Regarding the earned BAT by watching ads, I believe that it cannot actually be withdrawn, only used to pay publishers, but again, things may change. And I agree that the blockchain may superflous here, but using it has allowed them to get the funding to get things off the ground and attract users, which counts as a valid use in my book.


Yeah I think the unintended consequence would be it'd be massively profitable to produce funny memes and little else.


Well that's already the case, isn't it? Getting someone to read a Pulitzer prize winning article online currently gets <1 page view's worth of ad revenue. Having someone look at endless pages of memes gets many page views.


This model would require some way to indicate the cost of producing content (e.g. sending journalist overseas with risk to life and limb, versus 30 seconds making up a meme).

And unfortunately, it has the huge problem that a lot of technologies that could track what you do could be misused. An anonymizing scheme similar to Apple Pay might work.


With the first point, that's already a problem with an ad based revenue system. A life-risking article still just generates <1 page worth of ad revenue per reader, the same amount as a no-effort article. Maybe this system could include some sort of tip-based approach to reward quality content. Maybe 10% of your monthly $x is distributed based on your favorite content of that month.


This is good. We need to get back to letting prices do their thing and provide the proper signals to the publisher/producer and the reader/customer. Pricing helps producers clarify who they want to their customers to be, and it helps customers clarify exactly what they do or don't actually want.

Someone already mentioned software subscriptions and Adobe Photoshop, in the context of professionals vs hobbyists. If Photoshop is too expensive, then someone will create an alternative that is cheaper. That's basically what happened with shareware in the 80s and 90s. When proper price signals are in place, the market will adjust and new opportunities will be created for entry-level players that want to address gaps in the product offerings.

Finally, in terms of accessibility: remember that there are insitutions called libraries that are the great equalizers when it comes to accessing paid content. For many years now one can go in and read any magazine or newspaper that one could want, without paying a dime. If you find yourself complaining about content subscriptions, you might be better served by making sure that your local library is fully-funded.


Ad-supported websites are about as pure of an example of revealed preference as you can get. Advertisers target eyeballs that spend money, and the sites that capture the attention of said eyeballs get ad revenue.

The golden age of journalism, pre-web, was based on price signals being divorced from content because of classifieds propping up everything else.

We have been given the web that we want. It has been found wanting, because we ourselves are wanting.


Web advertising only works to reveal preferences through privacy-invading ad tracking, and the public is showing less and less tolerance for such measures.

Newspapers were absolutely using classifieds to blow up their revenue, but advertising still played a big part and I doubt if classifieds were a significant source of revenue for most magazines (a quick look didn't turn up much in terms of figures).

Web publishing developed the way that it did because publishers weren't particularly good at foreseeing what the end-game was going to look like, combined with a good bit of hubris about what actual effects the web would have on print publishing. The resultant excessive ad tracking occurred because publishers were trying to, ahem, "polish a turd".


Libraries can only help with printed paid content. Electronic content can be licensed to only be viewable by one individual.


It doesn't need to be, though. I'm sure that libraries can work out a licensing deal that works fine with client-side certificates or some other "proof" that it is the library's machines that are being used to access the content.


I'm okay with subscriptions. Software and quality media (such as Bloomberg) are things that provide excellent value, and people have gotten used to thinking they should be free or dirt-cheap - even within our own community, which is saddening (I used to have this mentality years ago, too).

Yet, most people don't bat an eyelash when paying $100-200/month JUST for cell phone service, then $100/month for cable, etc. How about car payments and insurance?

If you use these services daily, then a subscription model makes sense. They're providing value to you every day.


The argument is that the subscription price is prohibitive. Bloomberg is charging $35/month which is considerably more than the advertising they are replacing. I don't have Cable, I can watch news free OTA and my cell phone bill is $170/month for 4 lines.

Problem is I don't use most of these services daily. Had Bloomberg decided $10-$15/month was the right range, I'd pay it happily. You can't charge $35/month for something that was previously free with zero value add and expect people to pay it.


I think that Bloomberg is making a smart move here. While they have general news too, their primary focus is on high quality reporting on the financial and business markets. Many people within those industries will happily pay $35/month for this news if they find it useful, and I'd venture that many will just charge it to their employer, who won't bat an eye.

They could charge $10-15/month and try to appeal to a broad audience, but the vast majority of people wouldn't pay that anyway. Given the choice, I'd prefer a smaller number of higher paying consumers within a niche anyway, since I can make a more targeted product and still bring in revenue. If anything, this lets them be laser focused on their niche.


I keep hearing people say that other people think things should be free. Yet, I can't think of a single time I've ever heard someone actually say that, or read something that said "this should be free."

Rarely does anyone think something should be free.

What people are actually thinking is: this thing is free and I'll use it while it is, but if there's a paywall, I'm done.

This is very different than "should be free" because we are really saying it's value to me is $0.

And, everyone is batting an eye at the rising prices of cable, cell phone service, insurance, etc. In fact, it's so blinding we can't even open our eyes to look at anymore.


Um. I think it's worth mentioning that these aren't subscriptions (in the traditional sense). They're memberships.

If I subscribe to a print mag, once it's delivered I have access to that content until I decide to throw it out. If I bought Photoshop, I get to use that version (sans major OS up grades of my hardware) as long as I want.

Membership is binary, or has levels.


> Today’s consumers though have significantly higher standards than the original users of the web. Consumers want immersive experiences, well-designed pages with fonts, graphics, photos, and videos coming together into a compelling format. That “quality” costs enormous sums in engineering and design talent, not to mention massively increasing bandwidth and storage costs.

Not really. Nowadays, it's truly a strike of luck if a page looks half-readable- hell, perhaps even readable at all if I haven't turned on JavaScript and let it load resources from three dozen different locations. And "immersive experiences"? I'm sure people will have plenty of chances to appreciate them when most sites bring their cellphones or laptops down to their knees, even if they are at most a couple years old.

Ravenous subscription fees to replace formerly ad-supported content is not really much of a solution, it's just shifting the problem somewhere else. Sure, it might work for some services in which you effectively have a captive customer base (Thanks to vendor lock-in or a monopoly in your particular niche) or if said fees are kept low enough, but it's bound to end up as saturated as ad-supported content ended up being. Expect a raise in reports of freeloaders, account-sharers and see if the administrative/consumer support overhead is well worth it in the end.


I'd pay money for a Netflix-like service for newspapers. I know it's probably not as good for the newspaper business as the old subscription model, but it's pretty much the only viable model that I can see working.


Me and three friends worked on a similar idea at the YC hackathon a couple weeks ago. You'd pay us $10/month and we'd buy a lot of subscriptions to different newspapers. You'd install our chrome extension and when you came across a paywall, we'd autofill credentials that are just valid for one day.

We didn't win but it definitely piqued the interest of the crowd and the judges (Sam, Michael, and Adora). We're not pursuing it but hopefully others do.


This is a cool idea, but I imagine this isn't legal, right? Creating an actual business out of this would have to require buy-in from the content creators


I think it’s funny how everyone is surprised that Silicon Valley hackathon-goers don’t understand or care about copyright. Maybe they’re just “disrupting”!


But, how is this not a flagrant violation of basically everybody's TOS, and illegal in its own right?


What did you plan to do when the publishers terminated your accounts for sharing credentials?


Probably keep making more until the publishers were forced to negotiate. This method is successful. See: Uber.


If it gains sufficient traction and was found to generate equal or more revenue for publishers I could see them willing to come to the table.

The problem I see with bringing publishers to the table is: How do you distribute revenue? Pageviews? That's what you don't want papers to optimize for right now. Equally? Hardly seems fair. Who decides which publishers are on Netscoopx? What ratio of subscribers to paper subscriptions should Netscoopx maintain?

Overall the idea reminds me of Grooveshark and Aereo simultaneously.


Proxy and cache articles using a standard set of credentials from a set list of origin IPs, most likely. The traffic would appear as that of an average reader.


That sounds very likely to get you sued for copyright infringement.


Or just provide a front end for caching via archive.is and other archive sites?


Check Blendle https://blendle.com/


For a lot of digital businesses a subscription makes sense.

Imagine if back in the day Rails Casts was $3 an episode instead of $20 per month for unlimited monthly access.

Suddenly if you wanted to learn Rails, you'd end up watching many dozens or hundreds of 5-10 minute videos for $3 a pop. You would constantly feel like you're being nickel and dimed. It's hard enough to get someone to buy from you once, but expecting someone to make dozens or hundreds of small transactions would be madness.

It creates a really high pressure scammy feel to it IMO.

Don't you feel the same way?


Or you could pay $40 once for a book: https://smile.amazon.com/Rails-Way-Addison-Wesley-Profession...

I think the greatest loss of the modern web has been this explicit move away from literacy. It's like the dark days of television are back again.


I looked through the table of contents for that 1,088 page book and I didn't see anything that hinted on how to do sorting on table columns.

And this is exactly why Rails Casts was great. You would Google "how do I sort table columns in Rails" and find the episode, watch it in about 10 minutes and implement it in your code base. Rails Casts has been dead for years and it still ranks in the top 3 today on Google for that phrase btw.

I don't want to flip through 1,000 pages in a book to find 1 specific feature I am struggling with right now. I may never find it.


> I don't want to flip through 1,000 pages in a book to find 1 specific feature I am struggling with right now. I may never find it.

I'd much rather do that than watch a video about it, where I'm forced to scrub back and forth trying to understand the key concept at the speed the presenter is speaking instead of reading a section multiple times (which can be much faster).


But what if the video is 5 or 10 minutes long and it's focused on the exact problem you have, plus it has a blog-post style block of text under it with the code examples? And on top of that, there's a git repo which shows a before / after for just that feature.

That's the value in something like Rails Casts.


1.5x playback speed, friendo


There's a place for both. While RailsCasts didn't aim to replace a detailed book, it undeniably featured a lot of very helpful and valuable content.


> Today’s consumers though have significantly higher standards than the original users of the web. Consumers want immersive experiences, well-designed pages with fonts, graphics, photos, and videos coming together into a compelling format. That “quality” costs enormous sums in engineering and design talent, not to mention massively increasing bandwidth and storage costs.

Says who ?

In other news: stuff costs money.


I don't mind subscriptions but I do fear the day when my favorite subscriptions start to run ads on top of their monthly fee.


Case in point: cable tv.


Or Hulu.


Hulu did the opposite: they initially had ads for everyone, but later introduced an ad-free package at a higher price.


Or newspapers, for that matter.


NY Times already does. I was surprised and annoyed to still see ads when I subscribed.


A lot of good media properties are sold BECAUSE of the ads.

Think magazines like Vogue, with 800 pages of ads that people are looking at for the season's trends. Or other shopping magazines. Also, local newspapers provide useful local business advertising.

A good media property knows that ads are as useful as other content.


Subscriptions are terrible business models as well. The vast majority of subscriptions work on users that pay but dont use the system. They are not economically efficient at all.


Or at least covertly collect and sell your usage data for data aggregators to use to advertise to you on other services.


What we need is a cryptocurrency capable of handling microtransactions. Then we need web browser support (a standard) for a cryptocurrency wallet.

When you visit a web page, you can pay for the content by clicking Yes in a dialog box. When you don't have money in you wallet, you can fill it up using your credit card, or some bank solution. The price is shown in your currency of choice, but all the transactions happens on the blockchain.

People who make web pages can paste in some javascript to charge for content. No third party organization needs to get involved and the seller can't get charge backs. The transaction fee will be low so that you can charge pennies for a news article. This will work without you giving away you credit card number, name, address, e-mail etc. to the seller.



Was about to post the same! Brave has some pretty cool upgrades incoming as well!


This solution seems to be addressing a problem completely different from what the author is discussing. How would using a cryptocurrency solution reduce monthly fees for subscriptions? How would it help reduce the aversion to paying for previously free content? How would it help with bundling?


Someone always have to pay, one way or the other.

With microtransactions you only pay for what you want to consume and you don't need 10+ different subscriptions. That is the benefit.

If you only want to spend 2 dollar a month, that's fine.


Good luck getting normal consumers to start using a cryptocurrency for this. Most of them will give up in utter confusion when they try to set up a wallet.

I see no reason the US dollar is unsuitable for microtransactions.


If it is built into the browser, it will not be harder than say cookies. When it comes to US dollars, you have to pay transaction fees and it can take days before the transaction is completed.

The user doesn't need to know what a cryptocurrency is, the dialog will be displayed in dollar, or whatever currency you happen to use in your country.

Today's system is more complicated. You have to create an account, confirm e-mail, remember your password, enter credit card number, address, expiration date etc.


But the user needs a wallet at some point, and the user needs to put money into the wallet so it can be spent. How can that part be hidden from the user?

Today's system may be complicated, but users understand it and are used to it.


You need ONE wallet and then you can use it for all sites. It's much, much easier.

Setting up the wallet doesn't need to be more complicated than setting up a card with Apple Pay. You don't need to understand the underlying technology to use it in millions of stores.

Today's system is like setting up Apple Pay every time you need to buy something in a store you have not visited before. It's a horrible user experience.


$35 a month for Bloomberg is an insane amount to ask - even if they cut that number by 90%, it is still very debatable if the content is worth the price.


I wonder if they set the price point so high so they can capture lots of revenue from businesses, like the WSJ does. Then for consumers they can offer a huge discount.


>Today’s consumers though have significantly higher standards than the original users of the web. Consumers want immersive experiences, well-designed pages with fonts, graphics, photos, and videos coming together into a compelling format.

do they really want these immersive experiences? Do consumers even have a choice?


I strongly disagreed with the same paragraph. "Consumers want immersive experiences, well-designed pages with fonts, graphics, photos, and videos coming together into a compelling format." No, they don't want that, especially not the video, and the rest is just a nice-to-have, not a want-to-have. You WANT consumers to want that, but they don't; it's being forced on them instead. Plain text with the occasional still graphic, on a plain white background, would be just fine.


As a net user since 1995 I preferred it back then. Admittedly this is probably tinged with nostalgia, but I remember people just sharing information without needing to charge you for it. Maybe I just started with low standards, but when people tell me I need to pay for this content, I go "meh, I just won't read it then". I don't feel the loss, but possibly I don't know what I'm missing.


I'd like to throw in my pay-per-minute concept for video content. It's been tried before but I think it's the business model for media monetization that will win in the end. Basically a platform like Youtube could charge users a penny per minute and distribute to content creators after taking a platform percentage fee.

Starting something like this would have a huge chicken and egg problem though because no content creators would join a platform without a large existing user base. And I think Youtube and others would have trouble trying out a new business model because they might lose the confidence of their ad customers.


This really isn't a bad idea. Of course they'd have to have a wallet you deposit into, and disable ads completely for anyone using it for there to be buy-in, but I like the idea of paying the people I watch directly.

1c a minute seems like exactly what I'd be willing to pay, as well. Just for an example, a relatively small livestream I watched last week would have made $1200; there's no way they're making that much on ads. If that's the case, channels would market it as an upgrade too - "join our supporter's club, and get a badge".


“You’ve found market price when buyers complain but still pay.”

Subscription revenue is great business. And the optimization of price to maximize profits is a set of fun math problems.

It sounds to me like the author doesn’t love how much he spends on things but isn’t willing to do without. Also known as optimal pricing...


To me the issues isn't directly about price (though it's often a part of it), but more about the idea of paying for something continuously versus once. Almost a form of out of sight out of mind.


For me, those two points are inseparable. But I’ve also spent the last several years of my career focusing on maximizing profits within consumer subscribeables...

There are only so many ways to make money: ads, once off charges, term payments, and recurring charges. A consumer license to use vs physical ownership is incredibly interesting. Buying a Mario Brothers cartridge for the original Nintendo vs games delivered online. You could see a compelling case for the Nintendo Switch to offer a subscription service giving access to X games every month.

I don’t find either right or wrong. They just “are” so to speak.


The best example I have right now is with music... I am ALWAYS going to want to be able to listen to my library, it's not really fair to assume I should have to pay monthly for it for the rest of my life, but for every day I don't buy the album and I listen to it on AM or Spotify, I'm in effect paying for a redundant service.

I get the difficulty finding ways to make money, but we are pigeonholing ourselves into a model that is against the best interest of the users.


I’d disagree in that you can buy an MP3 and listen forever using whatever device. But Spotify isn’t required to sell you MP3s (or guarantee perpetual playback). And, it turns out, that people (in aggregate) really like the Spotify model. One fixed cost to consume all the music you want vs buying entire albums to listen to the 2-3 songs that were decent.

There are still two markets in music. That’s not the case with most online services, but I’m comfortable with that.


Came here to find this sentiment and am glad.

My bit to add: Since somewhere they can't be responsible for doing without a given service (have everything), someone is at fault! The developers! Of course, those lazy bastards.


>One way we could fix that situation would be to allow subscriptions to combine together more cheaply. We are starting to see this too: Spotify, Hulu, and Scribd appear to be investigating a deal in which consumers can get a joint subscription from these services for a lower rate. Setapp is a set of more than one hundred OS X apps that come bundled for about $10 a month.

I understand the attraction to this, but it makes me think of a problem I haven't yet been able to define well, so I've been calling it the "Japan Tourist Problem" in my head while I chew on it.

Basically, it's pretty common knowledge for everyone thinking about being a tourist in Japan for a week or two that the JR pass exists and is an unbelievable value. Essentially, it's unlimited rides on the bullet train and Jr lines for a flat fee of ~200usd. Round trip is nearly the same price without the jr pass. It pays for itself.

Problem one, outside of the standard jr pass are about 5 or 6 "specialized" passes with very unique usage rules, like "only good for rides within Tokyo metropolitan area" or "only good for northeastern Japan rides" or "good for tourist bus only" I dunno it's impossible to keep track, but that's the idea.

And then when you actually get to Japan, you'll discover the full almighty power of the national Japanese tourism board. They got their fingers in everything. If you're ever about to spend money on something, there's probably some way you could save by exercising tourism board initiative 235.b:a, including a full on tax exemption. Little packages for bus + hotel + hot spring pass, with a vending machine voucher and an exclusive packet of stickers which have a QR code on the back you can redeem in the Line app. Endless. I'll try to find specific pamphlets and flyers when I get home but it's just so many packages, deals, all mandated from the tourism board itself (I'm not talking private hotel package type things here).

My point is that should this concept of the author's take off, we'll just be in some new decision-lock hell, where you'll never be getting"the best deal" because to do so would require solving the most insane graph reduction problem ever conceived.


My point is that should this concept of the author's take off, we'll just be in some new decision-lock hell, where you'll never be getting"the best deal" because to do so would require solving the most insane graph reduction problem ever conceived.

This is exactly how I feel about "travel hacking". Not the earning points part, which is fairly straightforward, but the redemption part. If I want to go to Bogota on vacation for specific dates and I have hundreds of thousands of airline miles and rewards points spread across a half dozen programs, the number of options is ridiculous. I can book with cash, pay with reward points, or book via dozens of different airlines and partner airlines with various fare classes, stopover options, etc. Worse, if you're fortunate enough to have a lot of flexibility around when and where you travel ("I want to go to South America sometime this summer"), the complexity skyrockets even further. It's just frustrating because even when I do piece together a deal, I can't help but feel that I'm still paying double what I would if I looked at the options differently.


Hope you're enjoying it anyway. I think the Japanese look on it more as a salad bar or smorgasbord "So many good deals!" but maybe I've been living here too long. Some of the variants have to do with JR being split up into different regional companies so each of them wants their own initiative on top of the common one.


It was a matter of time that subscription plans hit the same level of annoyance as online ads. But, subscriptions have a significantly heavier impact than ads.

You cannot netflixify journalism. It's different to movies or music. Journalism is not art. The online subscription business model doesn't work for journalism, because alternatives are far more easily accessible than print media. News are not unique works, news articles share the same base - things that happened anywhere in the world. Why should I get multiple subscriptions then?


You CAN netflixify journalism. It's not different than movies or music. It is art.


> Why should I get multiple subscriptions then?

My dad subscribed to both "The Edmonton Journal" and "The Edmonton Sun". Why? Because each had it's own bias and perspective on current events. What you're describing is not only not new, it's literally the dominant business model for print journalism for the last 100 years. Will it translate to the internet? I guess we're about to find out.


I think very carefully about adding subscriptions because, honestly, I feel like the burden of a subscription it pretty high. Having to set it up, remember what card it is on, update it when the card expires, remember to cancel it before it auto-renews if I'm not using it...

I wish there was some way I could pay in a central place to support good journalism, across multiple sites, but there just isn't one.

For entertainment I use Patreon, which seems to be doing a good job with the Youtube channels I like, particularly the ones that seem to get demonitized. One place and I can choose where my money goes. Though they did freak everyone out a few months ago with a change to their policies, they rolled that back after the outrage.

I wonder if Steem will help with this. I haven't tried that Steem-powered decentralized Youtube competitor yet, but it sounds fascinating.


I can totally relate to this. If I added up the price of all the various subscriptions I'm paying for right now, I'd probably be very sad. Luckily for the vendors, I'm too lazy to do the exercise right now. Sadly for any future vendors who might want my money, I'm vaguely aware of the problem to the point that I'm highly, highly, unlikely to sign up for any new subscription based service now, unless it REALLY offers massive value. And even then it's iffy.

That said, I will still take this ala-carte world over Cable TV style bundling. But if some vendors of Internet content can work out some revenue sharing / cross-subscription mechanisms, I would be willing to give that a look if it mapped to my interests cleanly enough.


I disagree with the premise that users today want all sorts of multimedia content to add icing to the text. Some floated pictures or a carousel might be helpful for a news article, but most other stuff is just fluff pushed by business analysts to increase "engagement".


Maybe I'm wrong or in the minority, but I think if publishers want to make people pay for content then they should. Saying that people dont want to pay for something they used to get for free may be correct, but that doesn't make it right. Things that have value can be given away for free. Or they can be charged for. And that decision should be made by the producer, not the consumer.


Content is information which is goods (edit: not a commodity) and nobody has the right to say it is "right" to force others to pay for it. The market decides its price.


Content is a commodity? Good lord. What color is the sky on your planet? You pay for content already. All of it.


  > We didn’t need paywalls on the early web because we focused on plain text from other users.
  > Plain text is easier to produce
So can we go back to plain text?

Actually is this even true? Take a newspaper like the Washington Post. Now I've seen All the President's Men, where two reporters spend days and weeks, driving and flying around the country, for just a few articles. I know Watergate was an usual amount of investigation, but I still would think the research and writing is the most expensive part of an article.

  > Today’s consumers [...] want immersive experiences, well-designed pages with fonts,
  > graphics, photos, and videos coming together into a compelling format.
I smirked because I have JavaScript turned off. In fact I run my own little script that strips out all the CSS and starts over.

Of course a member of Hacker News is unusual, but I know my family members are the same way, always complaining about how complicated websites are. Maybe we're all just old fuddy duddies. But if it's the young who want all this fanciness, those are the same people who aren't going to pay more than 99 cents for a newspaper subscription.

I still think pretty websites should not be a huge expense. Hire a graphic designer to give you a framework, some stylesheets. Custom multimedia affairs for each article have always, always, always been annoying to me.


I don't really see the downside here. You can now literally not buy into another newssite's BS.


this is actually what I've been moving towards. Over the years I've become addicted to way too many news sites be it tech or politics and given that I've noticed the same trend as the author I went the other way, just prune my consumption habits.

I've cut it down to one physical newspaper subscription, use the BBC or DW or other public news sources only once or twice a day, and that's pretty much it.

The most notable thing is that I don't feel like I'm missing out on anything, I was just reading the same stuff obsessively before anyway. It's a little hard these days to escape the event driven newscycle but it's not a bad idea.


a visit on reddit is enough reading material for most of the day, and its free.


I like software subscriptions. It’s a way to ensure that the software developer is going to have a predictable revenue stream to continue to improve features and fix bugs in the software. That is valuable to me as a user.


Do note that it depends on the subscription model. If they give you a perpetual license when terminating the subscription, it would be good but if they won't let you use it, they just get paid by locking you up with less motivation to keep improving the software.


I agree. This is an often overlooked or under-appreciated aspect of these models. Especially for smaller teams or individual software developers, it can provide some consistency in income and allow them to budget time to continue to invest in the software. Additionally, pricing models that let you keep your current version of their software when the subscription expires are pretty reasonable as well. I believe the Jetbrains licensing works this way.

It gets a little more complicated with bigger companies and software though. For example, how can adobe price Photoshop fairly for a hobby user that uses it once a month and a production designer who uses it 8 hours a day?


One of the awkward things about people is the more they spend on something the more they value it and the better behaved they are to the creators of it.*

This may be why subscriptions are so expensive - because part of the cost of the subscription is customer support, and the less expensive it is the more customer support costs.

*alternate, complementary theory: the less it costs the more poor people have it where they have to do more financial juggling and get into weirder situations. Thoughts, HN?


Strictly speaking as a consumer, I would rather pay per article (say 10c-20c per article), rather than a monthly subscription. The way I look at it, I'm giving to the media outlet partly as an act of charity, to help out for better journalism. I don't want another subscription, that's for sure.

As for cable, i pay 0$, because I don't need it, at all.

Cell phone bill is 23$/month for 2 people, using USmobile.com You get 100minutes and 100 MB of Data and 100 text messages per month. I don't need all those data hungry apps anyway.

Car insurance: metromile.com lets you pay roughly 2c - 3c per mile plus about 15$/mo base. That's much better than 100$ per month.

Who the heck wants all this? "all of our research shows people want high-definition images with their stories, instant loading of articles on the site, and interactivity. ", " Consumers want immersive experiences, well-designed pages with fonts, graphics, photos, and videos coming together into a compelling format." Is this really what the majority of people want?

I'd gladly have a simple page with simple graphics with a nice readable layout. that last thing i want is some stupid video playing in the middle of the page, slowing things down.


Maybe I'm alone here, but I feel like pay per article is going to discourage readership. It now takes the one time decision (aka signing up for the subscription) and makes it into a decision that happens every time you open the site.

There's also a breakeven point with metromile (Google Fi, etc) and a standard subscription. If I recall correctly, they are targeting people who don't drive very frequently, which isn't what I'd imagine publications would want to do.


At one time we complained about the fact that we couldn't pick and choose our subscriptions on cable tv. You got all the channels you didn't need, just so you could watch Cubs baseball. Now, that's not true. You can just subscribe to mlb tv (a pretty crappy product btw, despite my continued subscription to it).

the author just has trouble saying "no"


What world are you living in where the premiere live sports streaming service, the one that provides services for the likes of HBO Now and PS Vue is:

> a pretty crappy product btw


MLB.tv/radio are crap services; their web apps and android apps are buggy memory hogs that frequently behave unpredictably, drop streams, or wig out; the service is also over-priced, blocks in-market games, and the package doesn't include the (what is it now, month-long) post-season, whle the post-season package is a bad joke (raw static camera feeds). I could go on.

IF it is the premier live sports streaming service (I wouldn't know, since I only follow baseball), then that speaks more to sad state of live sports streams.


> One way we could fix that situation would be to allow subscriptions to combine together more cheaply.

“There are two ways to make money in business: You can unbundle, or you can bundle.” — Jim Barksdale.


But it's a free market. If you think price is too expensive for offering - you don't pay. Vote with your wallet.

Many subscription-based products or services are working non stop to update their product or service. Whether it's to generate and curate content or update/fix/improve software.

Not like it's a totally new, shocking concept.


I feel like this might be a good thing. Money is a powerful mechanism of transferring the percieved value of goods. If anything, this might cause good quality content to live on. Of course, there's the transition period during which free content has the potential weeding out the "quality" content.


The reason for this hell is that it's so incredibly important for companies in this winner-takes-all world to be information gatekeepers. The eyeballs have to go through them first, so that people can be controlled into buying more of their content.


I am so disappointed in bloomberg. I used to watch them fairly religiously, and Emily Chang is just great.

That being said, I wonder how much money they will make from subscriptions, and how much they will have to spend trying to protect their IP now. Youtube and other streaming sites have people streaming the cable version of channels from one subscription, and broadcasting it out to everyone. Even a reasonable security team of half a dozen people to police these policies would seem like a million dollar investment, and having a paywall makes it a cat and mouse game of security.


The thing I don't understand about this article is the author makes out like he's been forced into this situation, the "hell" he talks about is entirely of his own making.


I mean, the fact that paywalls are being introduced in front of previously free content does make this something to be dragged into, not necessarily something that's been walked into. If your habits for 5 years involved following links to free content, and that content still exists but is now paid, you're now losing access to things you previously had -- which is tantamount to force.


Subscriptions for everything. Ugh. What if we want all of our money to be disposable for what we want to spend it on, not what it is earmarked for by some large tech company...


> We didn’t need paywalls on the early web because we focused on plain text from other users. Plain text is easier to produce, lowering the friction for people to contribute, and it’s also cheaper to store and transmit, lowering the cost of bandwidth.

This is jarringly bad analysis that says more about TechCrunch's view of "content" than it does about anything else.

The cost of the "plain text" produced by the likes of true journalistic organizations like the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, WaPo, et al comes from the salaries of the journalists and the resources needed to support them (travel, domestic bureaus, foreign bureaus, fees, etc.).

We didn't need paywalls on the early web because... well, maybe we did need them and we failed to build them or invest in alternatives: Look at what's happening to journalism.[0]

The author may have a point about there being an opportunity to streamline something, but if it doesn't result in money being directed to people creating the content that really matters (and honestly, people voting with their pocketbooks is the only rational way to choose just which content that is, unless you want someone else deciding for you), then it changes nothing.

Personally I'm happy to send subscription money to these organizations, at least, and grateful for the privilege to do so.

[0]: lmgtfy https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/13/2...


I’m dismayed to see this is suggesting bundling, which most consumers hate, as a solution.


Spending for advertising has not changed overall, however it has shifted from newspapers to "online" which includes newspapers and google, but also "everyone else" ( https://www.statista.com/chart/372/quarterly-growth-of-us-on...). The newspapers maybe should pursue the ad revenue from TV, or find a way to cut out google.

Relying on subscriptions is not a valid model for every newspaper. "General purpose" newspapers co-evolved with advertising, which made them pursue large audiences. "News" themselves are advertisements, things to be disseminated, unless we 're talking about some specialized report that only experts can understand. The fundamental need of people to "get the news" is easily satisfied with anything, from facebook to reddit, and people are not going to be paying to have things advertised to them en masse. Subscriptions will eventually lead to the content being increasingly less popular and specialized, which means either the nature of the content will have to change or some of them will shut down. It works when 4-5 major newspapers do it, but when every newspaper becomes subscription-based, the model will break down for all of them.

Also i find it hard to believe that readers "want immersive experiences, well-designed pages with fonts, graphics, photos, and videos coming together into a compelling format". If anything those pages are annoying as hell (bloomberg autoplaying the videos on its articles is a culrpit here). In fact this techcrunch article is enjoyable because it almost pure text and it didnt need any fancy fonts.


Prices should be based on the 5Ws and the current models that are now used seem similar to what was in the 2000s at the age of "we didn't know better".

What is being sold? If it's news, is it sold by category? Is the news sold or is it the critical analysis that actually matters? Maybe news should be free, the analysis paid.

When is it sold? Is today's news sold or all the news since the beginning of time? Maybe today is paid but yesterday is free and then paid again?

Where is it sold? USA has a GDP, Hungary has another. Maybe Hungary should be cheaper, tier the country, tier the price.

Why is it sold? Is it to make money or to improve quality? Slapping a price on a product without making the proper changes hurts long term success.

Who is the seller and who is the buyer? Is the seller a B2B company, then buyers should be businesses. Are intended buyers, investors, then target them.

How are you selling? Subscription is tried and tested. Perhaps using micro-payments could also be a solution.

Without applying these questions, the future is segregating services between those who can afford to pay and those who can't but need/want it. It can lead to a virtuous cycle for the wealthy and a vicious cycle for the poor.


By the way, you can still get Matt Levine's daily newsletter for free by subscribing to the email version. That's all I want from Bloomberg really!


I think the problem is the pricing model. If I watch one Netflix movie a month, it’s not really worth 11$ to me. These subscriptions should have tiers starting from few cents - but it may be less a Netflix problem and more a problem of labels and production companies who may not be willing to see it that way and force higher Subscriptions implicitly.


The issue is that they are charging too much, not that they are charging. If they consider that people start paying for everything they consider worthwhile, at some point even some of the things they love that is worthwhile will have to get the chop.

Now if they charge less, then that person (for instance, me!) can more easily pay for everything they love.

They just don't seem to understand that people have a certain amount of money, they cannot pay the prices for everything if they try to gouge too much money. Basically, they will get the more well off folks, but the issue is that there are only so many rich people - there are more ordinary people than there are wealthy people so subscriptions that cost a lot won't be much for the rich, but will be a lot of everyone else.


Interesting to see how far he pendulum has swung that a lot (well a certain kind) of users aren’t even wanting ads to pay for their consumption anymore! Is it because of the advances in deep and psychological/manipulative targeting we’ve seen recently or just in general?


I'm torn when it comes to subscriptions. Things that come to mind:

- For some products with high upfront costs, it makes them more accessible for learning, etc. ($10/mo for Photoshop vs. hundreds). Though, I've moved to one-time-fee Affinity suite of software now. However, for students and others with low-income that want/need to learn software like Photoshop, this opens up some options without having to go the piracy route

- At some point I think it gets expensive fast, where we're shelling out a lot per month for just a few services. This is good and bad. When there's a lot of useful things out there, it can feel like it's just adding up to too much. I think it may prohibit being able to use a wider variety of paid products (especially when you paid once for something that now wants a subscription). However, maybe this will help us use more discretion in the subscriptions we choose, instead of subscribing to crap or things we never use anyway. Not sure how much of "subscription fatigue" is a problem or just a unfound worry

- All this said, I'm still somewhat of a "I need to own X, not rent it" old-man-yells-at-cloud kind of person. I prefer to own music instead of using streaming services and so forth. It mostly comes down to personal and philosophical preference. I don't always like ceding control to the entity I am paying, when I could "own" the product instead. I tried streaming music for a while, but then here and there, artists/albums/labels would no longer be accessible due to a contract issue with Spotify/etc. I don't want to cede that level of control. When I own music I can download the MP3s, put them on a usb drive and listen in my car, etc. instead of hoping Spotify's DRM isn't going to screw my library.

- When it comes to online publishers, I just do not get enough value from them to subscribe, and I only view an occasional article, when linked from a site like HN. But because of security, privacy, and performance, I block ads. Not sure what the golden "fix" is for this industry, or at least what my part in it would be.


One thing not mentioned in the article is the engineering cost of altering the subscription and payment features of an app, so it's harder to AB test and experiment with new ways of pricing or things like paying for groups of apps together.

Maybe Bloomberg has a lot more resources to throw at this but for a smaller company that has a hacked together or otherwise inflexible subscription system is a risky proposition. Breaking it for some portion of users can result in a lot of lost revenue and potentially effect your customers if the app downgrades/restricts them while you fix it.

It's also often created early on, and moving to something like stripe which helps with a lot of this still incurs the risks above.


There's so many things wrong with this article, but I'll focus in on one particular thing:

> I paid $70 to buy the apps, but then the company switched to a $40 a year annual subscription, and as the dozens of angry reviews and comments illustrate, that price is vastly out of proportion from the cost of providing the software (which I might add, is entirely hosted on iCloud infrastructure).

...does this person understand how software works? Yes, the marginal cost of providing software to a particular person is almost always very low, sometimes so low it basically rounds down to zero. But you're not just charging to pay for the costs of delivering the software, but for developing it, too. And, of course, some goes to profit, which is perfectly reasonable in a capitalist word.

With businesses who are mainly reselling a thing, looking at it as "cost of thing + X% profit" is a perfectly reasonable way to frame things. There's only so much value a retailer or middleman can add, and generally there are competitors that could offer the same item. But when it comes to software, each individual item costs basically nothing to provide, so that kind of analysis fails and you have to accept that the price is essentially arbitrary.


Yes Adobe did the same thing, from $49 flat fee AUD, to 66 AUD which was $49 USD in AUD, then now it's 72 AUD/month! It's getting really steep if you don't use the software all the time.


The article seems to focus on the worst offenders (aka outliers) and some recent cost increases (when inflation happens to be going up after a decade of stagnation).

I currently have 7 different subscriptions ranging from $5 to $15 per month. They add up to $61/month. That's less than I used to pay for a standard cable package. And combined they provide me so much more of what I actually want, at an overall higher level of quality.

As a bonus, I spend less time viewing advertisements now than at any other time in 40 years.

I'm living in subscription heaven!


There was a short period of time when companies competed for monopoly status.

That time is now almost over - we have established monopolies.

Established monopolies use their power - that's why they fought so hard to become monopolies in the first place.

This article is saying 'gee, I liked it when Uber kept giving me really cheap rides, but now it doesn't anymore, such hell!'

The only reason you were getting cheaper rides was because it was a mafia deal, I help you now, for free, but when the time comes, you do something for me. That's how it works folks...


I dread the day when Microsoft will start forcing me to pay a subscription for my OneNote data. Maybe moving to .txt files and using grep for search would be better in the long run.


Not to be that “just add blockchain” guy, but this would be a great usecase for permissionless cryptocurrency micropayments, e.x. Lightning Network. Create an open protocol, build it into browsers, let content sites ask you to pay $0.01 (or whatever) to view an article. Maybe you could set your browser to automatically pay for the first N articles or M dollars per site per day. Or maybe a site could offer an unlimited subscription option through the same system.


Blockchain isn’t necessary. You can have a debit account system and change cents per article without the high friction cost of making people buy some cryptocurrency.


Of course, but then it's not open, decentralized, and permissionless like the web is.

In that respect there's always been an impedance mismatch between the web itself and the payment systems you could use on the web. Cryptocurrency has the potential to change that, which I find interesting.


In which the author, a proponent of subscription schemes, concludes that they are doing it wrong, because he is spending a noticeable amount on subscriptions.


The level of naivete in this article is frustrating.

>I’m frustrated that the web’s promise of instant and free access to the world’s information appears to be dying.

Free access won't die as long as there are people who are willing to work for free. It's not that subscriptions and paywalls charge money for something that was made by someone for free.

>I’m frustrated that subscription usually means just putting formerly free content behind a paywall.

That content was never free. Someone paid for it, typically advertisers. We all know the downsides of cost-per-click based economy. It's time to grow up. Kids eventually realize that food doesn't appear in the fridge magically, but someone pays a price for it and brings it home. The author also should realize that there is always a price to pay.


Agreed.

> the web’s promise of instant and free access to the world’s information appears to be dying.

That wasn't ever a promise, or rather, it wasn't "the web's" promise to make. It might have been the ad-hoc default for a while, but it turns out that it's not sustainable or scalable, no matter how much we'd like it to be.


I'd be interested in an 'aggregator' service where I can subscribe to sections that interest me from a number of agencies.


"To my mind though, the question is not how to get 1% of readers to pay an exorbitant price, but how to get say 20% of your readers to pay you a cheaper price. It’s not about exclusion, but about participation."

A noble idea, but one not founded in much reality. The fact is, generally when you price lower, you don't get much more uptake in sales in a model like this.


I think this is missing the bigger point. Ads are killing free but shitty web sites due to their (ads) numerous problems (malware, annoying, tracking, etc.). Subscriptions are going to kill mediocre web sites. We'll be left with better for-pay web sites and hopefully better ads on free web sites at the end of it all. That seems like a good thing.


> Advertising is one such model, with massive privacy violations required to optimize it

Why they took as granted that web ads must be behavior-targeted? It does not even work. Ads were much better targeted in 2005 with context-based targeting than now. Now I see ads about things that I'm not interested in at all and that I hate almost everywhere.


Amazon Prime is the right idea long-term. Get people to sign on for one anchor subscription (free shipping) and then add other ancillary subscriptions over time. I assume somebody at AMZN right now is looking into adding all-you-can-eat access to newspapers, magazines, software, etc. as part of the Prime subscription.


This is cousin to what's happening to a large portion of the video game industry: loot crates & pay-to-win.


Just charge the same amount a normal ad clicking (or viewing) user would make you in revenue. I doubt it's more then 1€ per month.

On Youtube, depending on your source, you get from 1-4$ per 1000 views. It's not the users problem that payment for micro transactions doesn't scale.


Honestly, the subscription model is more honest than a one time purchase pyramid scheme. Software changes over time. It has to, new operating systems, libraries and hardware dictate forward maintenance costs, nevermind bugs and security flaws.


Selling a product for a set one-time fee is a "pyramid scheme"? Is someone producing and selling apples running a pyramid scheme as well?


Personally I love Content subscriptions, $11 /month for Netflix gives you access to their $7B in annual content budget. Google Play/YouTube Red (ad-free) is also great value at $7.99 /month (early sub pricing). Likewise I got Amazon Prime for the free shipping but they also provide access to great content in their Prime Video catalog and the 2nd Music Sub is useful for the Wife/kids.

I have a number of Software and Cloud Subscriptions which are justified as cost of doing business but they're nowhere near the value offered from Content subscriptions.

Personally I'm against subscriptions for Games or News, IMO both are time sucks that are a detrimental the more you spend playing or reading them. I'll look at an Amazon FreeTime subscription when the kids come of age because the iOS Store is a mine field of dark UX patterns designed for kids addiction to suck IAP's from parents.


Content subscription depends. I would rather just rent the few that matters and feel I got a better deal than watching 5 average ones missing out the one that looked the most interesting.


Has anyone tried Agate micropayments? You can see it on http://popbitch.com/stories/, click on a story to see it working...


Not all subscriptions are equal though, in the case of Setapp, I'd save about 300$ a year on licenses i still need to pay to get updates... Even more considering they are on stacksocial currently.


Where is the Spotify for news content? Make me pay a flat rate, and distribute between the news outlets proportional to which I used the most? That seems fair


Maybe a pay per click business model where you get a monthly bill from your IP for your internet activity in websites that require payment is an alternative


We already tried this with pay-per-SMS, 1-900 lines, roaming charges, data overage charges and premium content on cell phones (ringtones, wallpapers, etc) and it was a nightmare-- before you know it your bill is $1000.

Its also a nightmare for those of us who have to keep a close eye on AWS spending. Someone spins up an x1-large you didn't notice? Too bad, now pay us.

Its a terrible model for consumers in general. My wallet should not be open by default.


That seems fraught with peril for abuse, I'm already handing over enough money to those crooks at my ISP..


It already is abused. I don't know anyone who used "Direct carrier billing" on-purpose, it is only used by scammers.


After reading such many comments, feel the problem is not about Subscription this model; instead, it's about pricing.


And the Subscription model can't be a replacement for one-time paid in software. It should be better to be combined with freemium.


This sounds like what happens to the pay TV business once there’s no aggregator (a la DishTV) in place. Am I wrong?


If people want internet without ads then need to pay for the service with different means. I can see a problem that it is extremely difficult to find a company that would process payments for you if the website you have is for adults only for example. Potentially this could be solved by cryptocurrency, so that you can run your own payment processor, but I have not seen a solution for subscriptions yet.


You can't have it both ways. Either you pay for high quality content or you deal with intrusive ads.


Was Bloomberg making $35 from ads from my 3 visits to their site per month? If not why do they ask me now for $35?


Welcome to the economics of ad free websites (for now, at least).

A large percentage of people simply will not pay for website access, no matter how low the price. So you get your money from those who do, who value the service so highly that parting with it would be huge pain point for them, and, so Bloomberg assumes probably after extensive surveys, those who feel that way about their publication, will likely have 35$/month to spare for the privilege.


Just because a large percentage won't pay doesn't mean that putting the price high will maximise income. It's possible that at $10/month they'd get 5x the signups.

That said, increasing prices is hard; reducing is easy. If you're trying to figure out sweet spot for max revenue is it probably makes sense to start high and slowly reduce it until you find it. If you're on a rolling monthly payment and decrease everyones prices together, nobody will get upset.


The biggest hurdle is not price elasticity between getting someone to pay $10 versus $35, it's getting people to pay anything instead of something.

Look at the App Store as an example and how hard it is to get people to pay $1.

Besides the people who are willing to pay are by definition people who are willing to spend money - the same demographic that advertisers covet the most. Meaning they can't target their best customers for advertising.


> The biggest hurdle is not price elasticity between getting someone to pay $10 versus $35, it's getting people to pay anything instead of something.

I'm not doubting that's tough; but it's significantly easier to get someone to pay $1/month than $35/month. People aren't completely stupid; they won't just blindly pay any amount just because they'd decided they'd pay something.

Like I said though; if I was making this decision, I'd start high.


> It's possible that at $10/month they'd get 5x the signups.

I highly doubt it. Also, while it is possible that the people at bloomberg are so incompetent that they did not consider how to maximize their profits, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt and say that they did.


> I highly doubt it.

I never said it was likely, just possible. And I wouldn't question the incompetence of anyone these days; big companies make questionable decisions all the time ;-)


it's funny that bloomberg is now trying to charge for something that's basically content marketing for its terminals.


Most likely you are not the target of this subscription. You will be just collateral damage.

Just like most people wouldn't pay 2000 a month for access to their terminal software.


I think they idea is that they expect only a small percentage to pay the subscriptions. The rest may get one or two free articles a month, which for them counts as a lure to attract new customers.


Bloomberg offers 10 articles for free, so it would seem that they aren't asking for $35 for 3 visits.


And yet we have print magazines where you pay for the magazine and there are so many ads you can’t find the goddamned table of contents.

I’m looking at you, Wired Magazine.


They don't make enough off of subscriptions to make publishing worthwhile and if they give it away for free, the advertisers don't value the customers as highly. That's why free magazines like MacWeek and PCWeek forced you to take surveys to qualify for a free subscription back in the day.


Ha ha, I've also cursed Wired for all their ads, particularly at the beginning of the magazine. Them and the subscription card, though at least it can function as a bookmark.


You’re overstating the two options here. The choices might be to pay or see ads, but there is NOTHING requiring them to be “intrusive”. They weren’t intrusive in printed magazines, and publishers survived. Over-engineered attention-stealing data-hungry tracking ads are something invented in the Internet age, and I see absolutely no reason at all to include any of those features in the other option.


Magazine publishers survived because they had subscriber info which allowed targeted advertising (name, age, address, etc).


The irony of saying that on a popular site that does neither of those things should be lost on no one.


To be fair hn does not operate news as a business but as a cost center that feeds recruitment for talent for both investment and hiring.


Which is an interesting issue that I have thought about recently. There are tons of services like this.

One analog of this phenomenon are loss leader products in retail. Loss leaders in grocery stores (sometimes produce or in the case of Costco, hotdogs and soda for $1.50). Loss leaders have been responsible for putting lots of small businesses out of business.

When enormous companies offer products for free, that others charge for, it makes me wonder where it all ends. Many internet companies have been put out of business by free services offered by the bigger guys.

A similar issue is the endless supply of people or businesses willing to take a loss on their product, either because they have VC money, some other revenue source, or because they are just ignorant. Google was able to lose money on YouTube for the better part of a decade, for example.

I once had a thriving business buying items at US postal auctions for resale. But the get rich quick bloggers eventually found out about the auctions and then, for years, an endless supply of clueless suckers just kept showing up and paying above MSRP for things like MacBooks and other high end electronics. Ya, they would lose their shirts, and never come back, but there were always fresh meat each month to do the same thing. So most of us that were actually making money previously, had to move on to other things.

It seems like this phenomenon could become more proliferated as some of these core internet companies get larger and larger.


Loss leaders have been responsible for putting lots of small businesses out of business.

I can't for the life of me understand how the HN success story Dropbox has a long term future.

For the same $9.99 a month that you pay for Dropbox's 1TB Of storage, you can get....

- 2TB of storage from Apple for iCloud

- 1TB for each of 5 users on One Drive plus access to the entire MS Office Suite for 5 computers and 5 mobile devices

- 1 TB per user plus everything else you get from G Suite.

-Amazon Drive is 1TB for $60 a year.

Yes I know that Apple isn't aimed at businesses, but the rest are.


Simple: Apple sucks at cloud services. They provide them because it is easier for a subset of their users not to have to think about getting a third-party service.

Google and to some extend Microsoft want/expect you to do everything in the cloud. Their sync clients are generally less reliable, do not support P2P sync, and do not do block-level sync. Google even syncs placeholders for Google Doc documents, rather than real local office files. Microsoft encourages people to create/open documents directly on/from the cloud (with its standard dialog boxes).

If you want to own your data and reliably sync them between your machines, Dropbox is the best choice. And probably they'll continue to be the best, because sync is their product and not some way to funnel people in other products.


I think it's more ironic that your example of a site doing it right is one run by a company with deep pockets that can afford for the site to not print money directly. That's not the future of the internet that I want. In fact, it's terrifying.

This misunderstanding is why the internet is gradually becoming more and more centralized. People don't want to pay money and they don't want to see ads. The only sites that can brave that reality are charities, sites that confer other benefits to the organization (like HN), and the few major services that people will pay for (like Netflix). Not much in between, and the sites in between were basically enabled by ads like the collaborative writing forum I grew up on.


This site has employment ads for YC portfolio companies placed into the feed.


We also have Launch HNs for YC startups, which are like the job ads in that they get a placement on the front page to begin with. After that they behave like regular threads though.


At least that's relevant and subdued.

When I go to certain sites like Vox, I see repeated ads for women's clothing (wtf?, I'm a guy) that makeup around 40% of an article AND clickbait to other sites via Taboola.


And if they did have better targeted ads by following you across the internet, people would be complaining.


These ads don't feel intrusive to me.


Better yet, they don't have JS payloads with 0-days attached to them. Nor does HN engage in js miners.

I still hate adverts, but at least here its not a malware-fest. I still hate ads as they are parasitic in one of our most important resources: attention.


HN is has two parts:

1. Free chitchat

2. Links to content.

HN isn't much without the external content.


To be fair it's the comments that count. HN could randomly generate topics with a markov generator and still retain 80% of the value for me :)


We could also take turns in inventing titles and then vote on them.

Is there any metric for people clicking the external link compared to unique commenters?


that wouldn't be the case if YC wasn't paying for it.


"Today’s consumers though have significantly higher standards than the original users of the web. Consumers want immersive experiences, well-designed pages with fonts, graphics, photos, and videos coming together into a compelling format. T hat “quality” costs enormous sums in engineering and design talent, not to mention massively increasing bandwidth and storage costs."

Really? I thought "consumers" just want another shot of dopamine fueled bullshit, prettily packaged of course but crap nonetheless.

The realization that so much "engineering and design talent" goes wasted for this bullshit reminds me of what I said of - when I was 8 years old, 8 years. and people call me a cynical but I softened up loads since then! - the engineers sweating it out to run the Italian national broadcasting infrastructure. All that effort just to run a program the whole Sunday afternoon where a blondie that became famous for showing her thighs would ask people calling in from all over Italy, how many peas there were in a big glass jar: https://youtu.be/tRZ5y9seiLA

Of course they were waiting for the nuclear holocaust any day at that time, some maybe even wishing for it, given the situation...


the thesis is wrong, of course compromising the entire article. you/we aren’t getting previously free content, now for a fee. you are getting content previously paid for with ad dollars, dried up thanks to advertisers abuse (leading to adblock).


It's fine that this thread turned into a software subscription debate, but there's one thing troubling, very troubling, around the news subscription model:

These paywalls are blocking information about current events and one can argue that a society has an interest in keeping its population up to date on local and world events. Now, if all the reliable media will appeal mostly to people with means, what exactly are we expecting to happen?


This does highlight the fact that before the internet, you paid for your news. TV or Newspaper.


I actually think the root of our 'fake news' problem is that credible sources charge for content, while crank sources don't.

And credible news has always spent more on content creation than niche news. The cost of content creation has not fallen, while the cost of distribution has fallen dramatically.

So, it's completely natural that the price difference at the consumer side between high and low quality news would have changed dramatically.

The problem is that you hit a news story on the major aggregators (google news, at least, gives you a bunch of stories on the same topic from different newspapers) and you have to pay money to the more credible sources, while the completely wacky takes are often free.

Personally, I'd really like it if apple (or someone similar with a history of, you know, treating users as customers) would create a news service where I give apple twenty bucks a month, and it lets me read 100 news articles from the major papers, distributing some of that revenue to the papers in question. (they could even have tiers. or an easy way for me to 'buy this article' for two fifty or whatever. Heck, the NYT could setup an easy apple pay 'buy this article for two fifty' button without more apple help than is required to make apple pay work, and I'd probably use it at least once a week.)

As is, I periodically subscribe to the NYT on my kindle, but while the reading experience on the kindle is wonderful, the discovery experience is terrible. I usually read it for a while, then I cancel after realizing I haven't been using it (see the discovery complaint)


Check out Blendle https://blendle.com/

They aren't Apple but they do the pay per article thing.


I will check it out, initially, that looks like what I want.


Ive used blendle. I wish there was a browser extension that would detect paywalls and let me use blendle to see the article. Right now I have to open a new tab and search the article on blendles website. That adds friction that causes me to use blendle less than I would.


That and the "we're in beta" not just being able to sign up for it in a straightforward way makes it a non-starter for me (and I would expect for most consumers).


It sounds like the sort of thing that would be amenable to a greasemonkey type script? hm. sounds like an interesting project.


> Ive used blendle. I wish there was a browser extension that would detect paywalls and let me use blendle to see the article.

I designed such a system in 2012 and was granted a patent for it late last year. I asked a professional about what to do next and the advice was "wait until someone is infringing". Not hugely satisfactory.

I wanted to build the scheme described in the article. My goal was: fix the internet. The way it's paid for breaks it. Fix the money and the rest would follow.

Everyone who's thought about this problem for more than 10 minutes has hit on the same basic business model. I hit on it in 2008, I wasn't the first. Since then I've watched business after business fail in this area. The problem has never been the technology and I'm not sure if a successful shared scheme will ever emerge.


well, just sitting on a patent and waiting for an infringement isn't going to help fix the internet. That would be the other thing.

Seems to me like a patent is a good start, a good nucleus around which you could build some venture capital to actually try to start a company to solve the problem.

I totally agree that the problem isn't technology, it's the business side, the negotiation and that end. You'd need a very business-y business partner.


In fact I got the patent for that purpose -- to act as a substitute for the usual pedigree pattern-matching. I just didn't see it taking 5 years.

I go back and forth on whether to try and raise funds. It's an all-or-nothing proposition because of my visa status. There are also personal considerations involved.

Having worked for a mixed services/enterprise company, I am now keenly aware that sales is a strategic necessity and steady PR is a massive force multiplier. You can have the best everything in the world, but if nobody's buying, it doesn't matter.


subscription is like selling "sliced oranges in a transparent box" these days


I thought cryptocurrency was supposed to magically enable micro-payments for web content? (joke)

In all honesty, I'd happily pay for Facebook, or Hacker News, if it included bundled access to major news sources. I'd also happily try out a micropayment service for articles behind a paywall.

Most articles I read are hacker news links or Facebook links. I think that's the best way to monetize.


People need to understand that the alternative to ads is paying hundreds of dollars a month in subscription fees and then still not having access to all the services you would have had access to in an ad economy world.

People in Europe will soon get this wakeup call. Services that were only marginally profitable are already shutting down because of GDPR.

I'm confident that the EU government and its citizens have little idea of the consequences that will result from their privacy legislation.


Thing is, ads don't have to track users as individuals or at all. TV ads and print media ads are based on the content, why can't web based ads also be based on content? No more GDPR issues, we still get free content. Perhaps we can still do a pay-to-remove-ads option.


Honestly, I don't think it would be a great loss to forgo most of the advertising funded content.


>Honestly, I don't think it would be a great loss to forgo most of the advertising funded content.

Since you clearly haven't put much thought into this comment let's just start listing things that are funded by ads

- News

- content creators on youtube

- music

- twitch

- search

- blogs

- websites with tutorials

- a thousand different things which I have missed

and then facebook, snapchat, instagram, and twitter which of course you are too good for


- News

Best TV and radio channels across the globe are government channels, funded by tax.

- content creators on youtube & twitch

99,99% dispensable trash.

- music

Music funded by ads???

- search

The only point that holds in your list. Could perfectly be funded by ISPs as part of our Internet subscription.

- blogs & websites with tutorials

No need for funding. Cost to setup is zero (provided by ISP) or close to zero (basic hosting or domain name registering).


>- content creators on youtube & twitch

>99,99% dispensable trash.

Yes, the thousands of tutorials/guides and content that people enjoy watching is trash. Everything that I don't find agreeable is trash.

>No need for funding. Cost to setup is zero (provided by ISP) or close to zero (basic hosting or domain name registering).

Yes, no need to give people money for work they do.

Do you have any respect for the work that goes into the content you read and or watch every day? Or do you think people should just be content volunteering their effort for no reward?

>The only point that holds in your list. Could perfectly be funded by ISPs as part of our Internet subscription.

Yes. Perfectly. Let's just tack on another $50 a month. Or are you actually suggesting that ISPs should just do it out of their good will?


> - content creators on youtube

I only watch ad-free videos from content creators I fund on Patreon. I'm sick of Youtube's shitty advertising - it's as bad as TV when I was young, right down to running terrible political attack ads when I'm trying to take my mind off politics.

> - music

I don't think this is funded by ads. It's funded by VC dollars, since just about every streaming site is losing money right now. More to the point, my musical tastes are pretty eclectic so I usually have to buy Vinyl/CDs to get the music I want.


BTW, I agree, but I think the opposite is the case. I strongly suspect that in fact we'll see more content as the ad economy collapses. People don't understand just how much content is driven without ads for other reasons (like HN itself) and once more and more content gets locked behind subscription walls that indeed opens the door for free content to thrive. Combine this with strong, pervasive ad blocking and what you have is a recipe for the return of the free web.


Most of those are covered by either subscription models or Patreon. Some of them (news, blogs, tutorials) can, like Wikipedia, be funded with non-profit models.


Well there are genuinely people out there who don't use the content. Our attitudes to media and who should be watching what haven't changed much from the broadcast era. "I'm not one Facebook" is the new "I don't watch TV.


I'm sure there are but that has nothing to do with my point.

Anyway, I personally never use facebook because it is not something I find interesting. Do I feel pride in that fact? No I don't because I have an equally harmful relationship with reddit and hackernews. I always have to laugh when I see people state as a point of pride how they have deleted their facebook accounts on different social networks. If anything I think reddit and hackernews could be worse because I'm ingesting unfiltered opinions from random strangers.


For tutorials, I pay $30 a month for a PluralSight subscription, $12-$20 for the occasional Udemy video and watch vendor supplied tutorials from Amazon and Microsoft.

I hate ads for video content. I pay for Netflix and ad free Hulu. I use Plex for ad free content from CBS and the CW via by subscribing to the channels. It’s more ad blocking then piracy. Plex scrapes the content from the networks’ website real time and transcodes it and streams it.

I pay for Apple Music and before that iTunes.

I would pay for a high quality news source, I use to pay for WSJ.


> For tutorials, I pay $30 a month for a PluralSight subscription, $12-$20 for the occasional Udemy video and watch vendor supplied tutorials from Amazon and Microsoft

Good for you that you can afford that. We all know the dream of the internet was information gated behind pay walls only accessible by the well off.


Since you clearly haven't put much thought into this comment

Sorry, did I say something to offend you?


Maybe if the service is only marginally profitable without acting unethically it should shut down.


Showing ads is unethical now?

>Maybe if the service is only marginally profitable without acting unethically it should shut down.

Also I love this neo puritan thinking. I'm sure all the users of these services agree with your ideology and you forcing it down their throats is for their own good correct?


No, tracking is unethical, which most ads rely on.

And yes, it is for their own good to not have thousands of databases with their data littered across the internet.

I know, this is not a very American way of thinking, but no one can be an expert at everything. Most people are not experts at computers and even less can grasp the outreach and effects of their data being everywhere.

These people need help just as much as the average guy needs assistance with doctors. If they knew enough to tell when a doctor is bullshitting them, they could probably become a doctor, too.


>And yes, it is for their own good to not have thousands of databases with their data littered across the internet.

"With their data". Aka whether or not they liked a group pertaining to motorcycles or whether they searched for fishing rods on google. Yeah, we definitely need to shut off what is the most consumer friendly way of monetizing services in history so that a database of inane shit that is only relevant to marketers isn't tracked.


Well, it's not only relevant to marketers. Your two most innocent examples are not the only type of information that's going to slip in there.

And even with those two examples, you just have to be creative to find ways for them to damage you:

You'll probably have to pay more for your health insurance, if they find out that you enjoy motorcycles.

And if your next potential employer is vegetarian, they might pass on you for fishing, a.k.a. killing things as a hobby.

Someone wanting to rob/extort/kidnap/murder you, might look for you at lonely lakes in the region.

And these are the most generic examples of this supposedly useless information being used against a person.

Someone who happens to have an actual use, is going to be even more creative, since they'll find themselves in some particular situation where it's useful.

And again, there's going to be more information. They can sift through an entire list to find the ones that are useful and they can combine multiple pieces of information, too.


How showing ads is against GDPR? You still can show ads, you just need consent for tracking users. If they are going out of business because of GDPR they were not just showing ads.


There are no ads without tracking.


Ads existed before tracking. DDG uses ads based on the page content, not what is known about the user. This is actually how ads were before everyone went tracking-happy.

It is a model I prefer simply because it is more inline with the content I'm viewing. I'm more willing to let those ads get whitelisted because they're more likely to be related to the content I'm looking at and less about "what do we think saratogacx really wants today based on all of the data across the web."


> There are no ads without tracking.

I can definitively say you're wrong because I saw a billboard on my way to work today.

Also, in the early internet days tracking was referred to as spyware and security software would uninstall it from your machine.


You don't have CTR in newspapers and people still buy adverts in those.


GDPR basically says “get consent for what you do with peoples data”. If you can’t do that I would say your business model is it very ethical.

Edit: or have “legitimate interest” - in either case it’s a very low bar for ethical standards so GDPR shouldn’t be an issue


Or, stop consuming so much shit.

It's OK to not have everything, you know?


In agreement. I keep the site's I read to a minimum. Dose of world news, vc news, some gaming news, tech news. When I run out I browse hackaday. Maybe a total of 45 minutes if I'm really bored. The I have to start creating to entertain myself.

I purposely do not add new aggregator sites when bored. In fact my fallback (Fark) is woefully out of date. If I feel the urge to read that I immediately pick a side project and open it up.

We have way too many consumers in this world. Not enough producers.

Tho I do troll Craigslist for machinery when bored as well but hitting the limits on the amount of tooling my garage can hold.


It's a pity you're being downvoted as what you say really makes a lot of sense and everybody would do well if they followed this advice.


Even if we choose not to have things because they're expensive, it doesn't mean we should not complain about the prices. Companies make changes based on feedback so if there's good evidence that people think something is too expensive, the company may consider changing their prices or have offers.

I don't think people don't complain about stuff enough, we get taken for rides by big companies all the time while their CEOs take home massive pay packets. People should fight for better services and lower prices more; it works!


True, I save a lot of time when I can't read an article I clicked on because it's behind a paywall!


> I’m an emphatic champion of subscription models, particularly in media.

> All of these subscriptions are starting to add up.

Just thought I'd save everyone the time of reading this article. Not much substance.


Don't forget this one:

>"Consumers want immersive experiences, well-designed pages with fonts, graphics, photos, and videos coming together into a compelling format."




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